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Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2023 11:13 pm
by Mike G
Best 30 player-seasons of the last 3 years, when this season's minutes and
wins are extrapolated to their teams' full 82 games*.
Ranked by the avg of: PER-wins, Win Shares, and BPM-wins. (though the column I copied here weighs WS*2 and BPM*3)
Code: Select all
xyzW player yr perW WS bpmW Min PER WS/48 BPM
17.4* Jokić 23 15.0 16.8 18.5 2491* 32.4 .324 13.0
17.2 Jokić 22 15.2 15.3 19.1 2476 32.8 .296 13.7
16.4 Jokić 21 14.4 15.6 17.6 2488 31.3 .301 12.1
15.4* Dončić 23 15.1 13.2 16.9 2740* 30.1 .231 9.9
13.9 Giannis 22 13.2 12.9 14.8 2204 32.1 .281 11.2
13.0 Embiid 22 13.2 12.1 13.5 2297 31.2 .252 9.2
12.6* Tatum 23 12.5 11.8 13.1 2906* 24.8 .195 5.8
12.6* Shai G-A 23 12.5 11.9 13.0 2653* 26.5 .215 6.8
12.7* Sabonis 23 11.0 13.5 12.8 2681* 23.9 .241 6.5
12.4* Durant 23 12.3 11.7 12.9 2615* 26.6 .214 6.9
xyzW player yr perW WS bpmW Min PER WS/48 BPM
11.8* Embiid 23 12.3 11.1 12.2 2156* 30.9 .248 8.6
10.9 T Young 22 11.8 10.0 11.3 2652 25.4 .181 5.2
11.3* Mitchell 23 10.2 10.1 12.3 2576* 23.3 .189 6.5
11.0 Giannis 21 10.7 10.2 11.7 2013 29.2 .244 9.0
10.9* Haliburton 23 9.5 9.7 12.2 2382* 23.3 .196 7.3
10.4 Lillard 21 10.3 10.0 10.8 2398 25.6 .209 6.3
10.3 Towns 22 10.3 10.3 10.3 2476 24.1 .199 5.0
10.5 Tatum 22 9.9 9.6 11.3 2731 21.8 .169 4.9
10.5 Curry 21 9.8 8.8 11.9 2152 26.3 .201 8.7
10.5 Dončić 22 10.1 7.6 12.6 2301 25.1 .159 8.2
xyzW player yr perW WS bpmW Min PER WS/48 BPM
10.1* Markkanen 23 9.9 10.4 10.0 2511* 23.1 .199 4.5
9.7 Gobert 22 9.1 11.7 8.5 2120 24.7 .264 4.6
9.8* Giannis 23 10.3 7.9 10.8 2150* 27.0 .176 7.1
9.9* Butler 23 8.8 10.0 10.3 1948* 25.6 .246 7.7
9.6 LeBron 22 9.7 7.5 11.0 2084 26.2 .172 7.7
9.5 Durant 22 9.2 8.4 10.4 2047 25.6 .198 7.2
9.4* LeBron 23 10.1 7.1 10.7 2312* 25.1 .147 6.1
9.1 Zion 21 9.8 8.7 9.1 2026 27.1 .205 5.8
9.2 Dončić 21 9.4 7.2 10.5 2262 25.3 .163 6.8
9.3* Curry 23 8.3 7.8 10.5 1939* 24.7 .194 8.1
So this could be the Joker's best year yet. Luka this year is easily his closest competition in 3 seasons. And the list mostly covers super/stars who are at least half as good.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:27 pm
by Mike G
With his team losing, Luka is "officially" out of the top 2:
Code: Select all
Prob% Win% per G: eFG% Pts Reb Ast St+Bk
.688 .702 Jokic .654 25.1 11.0 9.9 2.0
.083 .652 Embiid .563 33.6 9.8 4.2 2.7
.073 .521 Doncic .559 33.6 8.9 8.7 2.1
.053 .745 Tatum .554 31.2 8.5 4.3 1.9
.029 .578 Sabonis .630 18.8 12.6 7.3 1.2
.024 .630 Giannis .541 31.0 11.9 5.3 1.7
.024 .630 Durant .607 29.7 6.7 5.3 2.3
.010 .674 Morant .504 27.2 5.5 7.9 1.3
.008 .489 Shai .534 30.7 4.8 5.5 2.8
.007 .542 Butler .537 21.6 6.1 5.0 2.5
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:09 pm
by Mike G
Joker is threatening to be the 3rd player ever to average a triple-double for a season. Trends are interesting:
Code: Select all
mo. G mpg TS% Usg% ORtg Pts Reb Ast
Oct 7 33 .683 23.2 138 21.0 11.1 8.4
Nov 11 31 .720 28.2 134 23.7 8.9 9.3
Dec 14 36 .667 30.8 130 29.2 12.3 10.1
Jan 9 32 .746 26.1 145 23.7 11.3 11.3
More minutes and Usage (Dec) correspond to lower efficiencies. This month's numbers are off all the charts.
Last year's January was his best monthly ORtg (130), TS% (.700) and Ast/G (9.0) of that MVP run.
Some similarities with Doncic trends, and some differences:
Code: Select all
mo. G mpg TS% Usg% ORt DRt Pts Reb Ast
Oct 6 37 .600 41.3 127 110 36.7 9.5 8.7
Nov 13 38 .608 37.1 119 109 32.0 8.5 8.5
Dec 15 36 .644 38.7 129 112 35.1 8.5 9.3
Jan 9 40 .552 37.9 110 117 31.3 9.8 7.8
Here, too, we see better efficiencies with lower mpg. I added D-Rtg since it does look like a trend.
Now Christian Wood is out, so the Mavs have to hope others really step up.
Joel Embiid is all ups:
Code: Select all
mo. G mpg TS% Usg% ORt DRt Pts Reb Ast
Oct 6 34 .618 34.5 111 115 27.2 9.5 3.3
Nov 8 35 .626 40.4 118 101 34.1 9.8 6.0
Dec 13 36 .644 38.5 122 107 35.4 9.9 4.2
Jan 7 32 .685 39.5 128 112 35.1 9.7 2.7
Same pts and reb in fewer minutes; Sixers 8-2 in Jan.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Feb 25, 2023 3:47 am
by Mike G
Tatum bumped from top 5.
Code: Select all
Prob% Player tm W% eFG% Pts Reb Ast St+Bk TO
.683 Jokic Den .70 .661 24.7 11.6 10.2 2.0 3.6
.084 Embiid Phl .67 .556 33.0 10.3 4.1 2.8 3.5
.062 Giannis Mil .71 .558 31.8 12.2 5.4 1.6 4.0
.053 Luka Dal .53 .566 33.2 8.8 8.2 2.0 3.6
.040 Harden Phl .67 .555 21.6 6.2 10.7 1.8 3.4
.035 Tatum Bos .72 .539 30.6 8.7 4.6 1.9 2.9
.017 Sabonis Sac .57 .627 18.8 12.4 6.9 1.3 2.9
.011 Lillard Por .48 .570 31.4 4.3 7.3 1.1 3.2
.009 Shai OKC .48 .528 31.0 4.7 5.7 2.7 2.9
.006 Butler Mia .54 .526 21.7 6.0 5.1 2.4 1.7
Harden is the only player here whose eFG% is better than his 2fg%. Everyone else shoots too many 3's!
Butler the only one with Stl+Blk > TO.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:22 pm
by Mike G
Joker's assault on statistical normalcy continues.
Code: Select all
mo. G mpg 3fg% TS% Usg% ORtg Pts Reb Ast
Oct 7 33 .211 .683 23.2 138 21.0 11.1 8.4
Nov 11 31 .444 .720 28.2 134 23.7 8.9 9.3
Dec 14 36 .350 .667 30.8 130 29.2 12.3 10.1
Jan 12 33 .538 .760 25.8 143 24.0 11.6 11.3
Feb 9 33 .556 .700 25.5 133 21.7 14.2 10.2
Dec. was about scoring, in Jan it was passing, now focused on rebounding.
3-pt attempts in those months have declined from 3 per game, to 2, to 1. Being more selective and realizing it's
even better to take it inside.
Jokic had just 3 assists last night, as fellow starters shot 10-36 on FG; and he now avg's 10.02
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:18 pm
by Mike G
Embiid has career highs in Pts/G, Min/G, FG%, 2fg%, eFG%, Pts/100 poss, ORtg, TS%, and Usg%.
Luka with career high mpg, FG%, 3fg%, 2fg%, eFG%, Stl/G, Pts/G, Pts/100, ORtg, PER, TS%, Stl%, Usg%, WS, ws/48, BPM, VORP.
(Yes already and with 18 games to go.)
Giannis merely has career high Pts/G, Pts/100, and Usg%.
Still, none of these guys is seriously challenging the Joker.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:21 pm
by Mike G
We now have a 2nd challenger in double figures!
Code: Select all
Prob% player tm W% Min PER TS% WS ws/48 BPM VORP
.632 Jokic Den .676 2030 31.6 .699 13.2 .311 13.0 7.7
.121 Embiid Phl .672 1890 31.1 .648 10.0 .253 8.7 5.1
.078 Giannis Mil .721 1722 28.6 .601 7.3 .203 8.1 4.4
.049 Harden Phl .672 1839 22.7 .623 7.9 .207 6.1 3.8
.034 Doncic Dal .493 2068 29.5 .613 9.3 .216 9.5 6.0
.028 Tatum Bos .681 2396 23.6 .602 8.8 .176 5.3 4.4
.025 Sabonis Sac .597 2248 23.3 .668 10.2 .218 5.6 4.3
.013 Lillard Por .456 1958 27.2 .648 9.2 .225 7.2 4.6
.011 Shai OKC .485 2028 27.4 .625 9.7 .229 7.3 4.7
.010 Butler Mia .529 1837 27.0 .635 10.1 .263 8.4 4.8
Prob% player tm W% Min PER TS% WS ws/48 BPM VORP
. Davis LAL .485 1441 27.9 .626 6.6 .219 6.5 3.1
. Durant tot 1501 26.6 .681 6.3 .203 7.3 3.5
. Curry GSW .522 1491 24.6 .668 6.1 .197 8.0 3.8
. J Allen Cle .614 2048 19.8 .673 8.7 .204 2.3 2.2
. Brunson NYK .571 2166 21.4 .595 8.2 .181 4.0 3.3
. Looney GSW .522 1617 17.7 .653 7.1 .211 2.0 1.6
. Haliburton Ind .449 1822 23.8 .623 7.6 .201 7.2 4.2
. Mitchell Cle .614 2099 22.7 .610 7.7 .176 6.2 4.3
Included everyone ranking top 10 in any of these summary stats.
As recently as 2012, there were not even 10 players with TS% > .600.
Last year there were 43. This year 68. Qualifying.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... op_10.html
Just 7 in 2006; 5 in 2004; 2 in 2003; zero from 1974-76 or ever before 1967.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:42 am
by v-zero
This four game skid for Denver is very likely to swing the MVP away from Jokic. Fact is voter fatigue means the majority would rather it go to Embiid or even Giannis, but there has to be a semi-reasonable argument for it, and these consecutive losses, two of them to very poor teams, are just that semi-reasonable argument.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 3:30 pm
by Mike G
Update on Jokic monthly summaries:
Code: Select all
mo. G mpg 3fg% TS% Usg% ORtg Pts Reb Ast
Oct 7 33 .211 .683 23.2 138 21.0 11.1 8.4
Nov 11 31 .444 .720 28.2 134 23.7 8.9 9.3
Dec 14 36 .350 .667 30.8 130 29.2 12.3 10.1
Jan 12 33 .538 .760 25.8 143 24.0 11.6 11.3
Feb 11 33 .500 .698 25.9 136 22.6 14.2 10.2
Mar 6 36+ .444 .685 27.0 131 25.5 13.7 9.3
His mpg and Usg% are back up from his comfort zone; assists are down. Are his teammates just missing more shots?
Even after 4 losses, the Nuggs are +4 on what their record
should be due to pt-differential. In games decided by 6 points or less, they have gone 17-6. Their luck has just run out a bit. Maybe they've just run into some hot teams?
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 5:16 pm
by v-zero
I'm certain it is luck more than anything, but people are always happy to build narratives from luck. People have the instinctual habit to want to explain variance, when in actual fact there really isn't anything to explain. Sometimes the cards don't fall your way.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 5:36 pm
by Mike G
ESPN did a 'straw poll' that had, as I recall, near consensus that Jokic IS the MVP again. A week or 2 ago.
Maybe the traditional fatigue has morphed into "don't want to be the last to admit he's the mvp" sentiment among voters.
If Denver or Jokic goes into full collapse, maybe Embiid gets close. But the statistical imbalance is enormous right now. Even the per-minute numbers.
Speaking of ESPN, stealth access to their RPM shows this top 12 in rpmWins:
Code: Select all
WINS player tm RPM
20.8 Tatum Bos 9.14
16.6 Randle NYK 5.91
16.5 Doncic Dal 7.41
16.4 Jokic Den 7.82
16.1 Embiid Phl 9.14
15.7 Lillard Por 7.41
14.9 F Wagner Orl 5.93
14.8 E Mobley Cle 5.93
14.4 Markkanen Uta 5.65
14.3 B Lopez Mil 5.43
14.2 LeBron LAL 7.93
14.1 Mitchell Cle 6.30
I honestly don't know what to make of these. Leery of those identical RPM rates!
Giannis #15, Butler 22, Shai 23, Sabonis 30, Harden 32
Butler RPM = 5.91 = Randle
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 7:28 pm
by v-zero
RPM is (quite literally) not what it used to be. I would describe it as close to useless.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:06 pm
by Mike G
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/358 ... t-got-good
"Exactly one month ago, ESPN released its second of three straw polls tracking the NBA's Most Valuable Player race for the 2022-23 season, and it had a very clear result: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic as the heavy favorite to claim his third straight award.
"Thursday saw Las Vegas tell a different tale, as Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid has joined Jokic as an MVP co-favorite after finishing in second each of the last two seasons."
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:12 am
by v-zero
Detroit hung in last night and the game was tied at 86 going into the 4th. Had the Nuggets not crushed them in the 4th, arguably as much to do with cold shooting from Detroit as anything else, then I think Jokic's shot at being MVP would be close to dead and buried. As it stands I believe he is still the front runner, but if Denver don't finish well I still think it is in doubt.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2023 3:50 pm
by Mike G
Yes, it was a 4.75-game losing streak. Last night it was Rodney McGruder having his best night (by far) of the year for Det.
Latest eWins projections show it is neck and neck now, regardless of teams' streaking.
And of course, luck being what it is, any team might go on a good or bad streak still.