APBRmetrics

Crow wrote: ↑Sun Nov 05, 2023 5:40 pm "...the starting lineup should be: Jones-Coulibaly-Avdija-Kuzma-Gafford."

21 games in and that forward focused lineup has been used... 3 minutes total.

Ludicrous.

Down 29 at half...

Now 46...

Does Brian Keefe finally get to be a Head Coach?

8 most used lineups all negative. Starters only mildly.

42 of 45 most used pairs negative, most badly and only 1 of the exceptions is beyond about neutral.

Can't identify or create any decent combos?

Almost nothing working. Very little change in playing time distribution yet attempted but perhaps it is coming with Bagley, etc.

Jones-Coulibaly-Avdija-Kuzma-Gafford lineup has only gotten 18 minutes in last 6 weeks. Didn't work, probably isn't the future.

Long process ahead.

Too early to judge new executives and their long-term strategy but pretty good length of run to evaluate coaching, analytics, past executive and ownership.

What has been done / gone right in last 3 years? Porzingis and Beal trades were quite underwhelming. Kuzma contract? Let's see what they actually get in a trade. No chance to redeem Davis draft pick if he hardly plays. Fringe players don't matter if barely played.

Don't know what the factor goals have been but team has no real strengths. Shift from FTA emphasis to 3 pt emphasis achieved nothing. Trade shot defense for opponent turnovers and fewer fouls but defensive efficiency got worse from already bad.

Avdija re-signed but still a below average starter. His shooting / scoring is up recently but turnovers are way up and team results are way down.

Gafford, lowest BPM since rookie year with no significant stat improvement.
Avdija - Gafford is least negative pair in 20 most used but still -4 and unchanged from last season.

Kispert, worst BPM of career because of poor team defense.

T Jones shooting well but not pressuring rim hardly at all and terrible team results.

Shamet, worst season.

Not all details are bad but overall they are barely above worst imaginable in results.

Crow wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 2:28 am Does Brian Keefe finally get to be a Head Coach?

Ding, ding. Interim Coach for now.

Back to back wins just once this season. Against the only 2 other teams with 20% wins or less.

1 player on current roster with meaningful minutes over 0 BPM. And they may want to trade Jones.

4 factors near average, 4 bottom 20%.

One of only two teams in bottom 5 on offensive and defensive efficiency, along with Hornets. Several others just escape bottom on one or other.

Wizards only 1 game ahead of Pistons.

Hornets have worst SRS and are probably unlikely to be caught.

Wizards tie for last place with Pistons by W-L.

Former Presti assistants 2 deep running front office and as Head Coach. Biggest analytics shop.

Tied with former Presti assistant running Pistons front office and a Head Coach who pulled thru as an assistant coach but not hired into Thunder head coach position. Something that seemed kinda surprising once but no longer does.

Owners that want Presti approach, Presti results? Little basis to support it being transferable from former lead assistants.

From spring 2023:

Crow wrote: ↑Sun Apr 23, 2023 10:08 pm I'd trade Beal. I might trade Porzingis (if able) depending on the return offered and contract talks. I'd be willing to trade Gafford and definitely Davis. Maybe Kispert, but not til at least the trade deadline. I would not re-sign Kuzma unless the number was good. I'd start D Wright if Porzingis is retained and if better is not obtained from the other trades. I'd probably retain Avdija, Huff, Cooks and Morris.

I'd go from current very low Moreyball level to high to very high.

I'd get a new coach by next summer at latest if it doesn't work. Would prefer sooner but play it by ear.

Look for an elite big (preferably center) offering some combo of high Moreyball scoring, elite rebounding and / or rim protection. And 3 & D wings.

Probably try to be somewhat more aggressive on defense.

I'd highly prioritize 20-30 lineups early with goal to increase concentration on 5-7 over time.

An off the cuff 17 point plan.


Tank or rebuild? Depends if you retain Porzingis. Probably tank, if you get enough draft picks and young players from the assets traded in.

Stand by all of it and was right on the predicted big exits.

Their Moreyball ranking is well below average.

Coulibaly's full immersion treatment has been a disaster. Shooting overall and from 3 have gotten precipitously worse every month to horrendous level.

Asking price for Kuzma was ridiculous and nobody wanted him for that and probably not close.

Poole has been mostly awful. Contract not as high as Beal but probably a worse value and drag on context.

I assume it is one of the biggest year to year falls in league history. They might privately say it was intentional and prepares for a brighter future, but we'll see when / if that comes.

Johnny Davis continues to be a failure to launch.

Build with or around Avdija? -1 BPM, -0.4 Darko. He has broken his trendline a half dozen times but then goes back to it. Drifting down slightly for 2 seasons.

3W-20L followed by 3-5 then 5-29.

No Wizards lineup over 1.5 minutes for season is still possible. 11 most used all negative.

2 most used lineups in last 10 games are positive but are extremely unlikely to reach 200 minutes test by end of season . Neither has Poole. Next 4 biggest with Poole all negative, 3 greatly.

20 most used pairs for season all negative. 3 of 20 positive in last 10 games. Nobody positive in more than 1.

Compared to Poole, Avdija and Kuzma (bad), Avdija alone or none of the 3 do much less negative.


The current starters, trio with Holmes and Kispert, are doing great... in the first 46 minutes. How many minutes will they get? So far used about 16% of Holmes' time and only 3 games total. First game was great. Next two were not. Do they test it adequately or move on to something else before that?

Poole -Kuzma is -11.4. Used it almost 1500 minutes for season and 30 minutes last game. Went back to it with starters. Still testing it or just tanking with it?

No Avdija without Poole or Kuzma lineup still possible tested over 16 minutes. Not interested in testing or not interested in possibly hurting the tank? I'd be doing more testing. It appears easy to tank enough. Why not start a bit of work on the future?

The current starter trio with Holmes and Kispert got just 8 more minutes in final 3 weeks and ends at just 54 minutes test.
Maybe a meaningful test next season? Probably not, given history.

583 lineups thrown out, no returning lineup over 100 minutes. So no even half decent test for any of them.

Is that any way to coach, manage or analyze / advise a near $150 million basketball operation? Of course not.

70% of 20 most used 5 mans negative. 100% of 20 most used pairs negative, from -5 to -20 pts / 100p. And 48 of 50 most used negative.

How much is weak talent, weak fit, weak coaching and weak management? I dunno the shares but it was "powerfully weak". Or monumental fail.

Kispert - Avdija - Kuzma was only -1.3pts / 100p. Used a bit more than 8% of total time. Add Poole it goes to +3. And time... goes to 4%. How hard is that? Add Holmes and get the 5 man mentioned at top of post. +18... in 1.4% of total time. Had to play with nearly 600 dinks cuz that is what NBA Coaches and teams do.

This lineup is not certain to be the answer but I'd sure test it several hundred minutes early next season.

And I'd check every coaching candidates record for lack of lineup concentration and demand a pledge of massive reform. But that is just a stance for me, I guess.

Some succeed without meaningful lineup concentration. Largely because they are doing it in a sea of teams with less wise or successful lineup chaos. But it remains recommended even for successful chaos practitioners.

New person in charge of strategy and analytics group.



Last season team was below average on every factor and in bottom 10 on 5. Not above average on Moreyball components. 90% negative on 10 most used lineups.

Analytics in general need to translate to court results.

(If not to win now, for other considerations.)

Wizards give up 162 to Pacers, including 81 from 3.



How did things go in general this season?

Offensive efficiency fell from 25th to 30th. Defensive efficiency stayed at 28th.

Record is worst in league.

JVal and Kuzma are gone. Poole still there.

Holmes playing and pretty well. Could possibly get something in trade or at least traded.

Wizards interested in AJ Johnson and letting him play. Almost -5 BPM but one the best on raw team +/- and on / off fwiw.

Poole, Couliably, Carrington and Sarr all -13 / 100p or worse on court. George only -9.

Carrington -10 on / off. In & out as a starter. Worse from the bench. Back in starting unit. His worst offense of season in March. Rated at most negative cumulative impact in league by Net Points, 2nd worst on offense.

9 of 10 most used lineups negative, 6 horrendous, 1 positive eliminated by trade.

517 total lineups used. 2 still possible barely over 1 minute per game for season. That will be so helpful for planning next season. Not.

49 most used pairs all negative. 2/3rds by more than -10.

Sarr ĥas had some bigger games lately. Up to 66th in rookie class of 84 on Darko.

Handful of injuries. Simple and possibly stretched.

Champagnie, a reasonably bright spot.


What's next? We'll see what they do in summer and then next season. And several more beyond that.

I might offer suggestions, at a later time.

Will surely involved lots of trades / dumps, lineup concentration, a new Coach unless tanking again.