APBRmetrics

Spurs persisted with anti-Moreyball. Low own turnovers and good defensive rebounding kept them from being worse.

2 year trend of playing faster pace (from very bottom to now average) coincidental with or correlated with worse results? Would have to study further. Trading away great defense for better offense hasn't worked.

Attendance has gone from a bit above average recently to a bit below. Could go lower if they don't figure things out.

I'd be willing to trade anyone on team and would try to change at least 5 or more. Probably keep the young PGs but I'd ask what Murray could get. I'd keep Poeltl and emphasize more but if they don't believe in him or style with him, trade him.

I don't trust the new GM but go for something different than current. And be prepared to replace him and the whole hierachy if things are still barely meh or worse in 12-24 months.


(Should have put in Spurs thread, but I didnt see it at the time.)

In last three seasons Carlisle has been -9 on actual wins vs. expected then -5 the last 2 years. Before this season it looked like tanking. And maybe it was. But something besides tanking is involved this season. Running up wins or not throwing in towel it what might normally stay a blowout or something. Or maybe he just isn't getting max payoff from talent.

Big minute lineups are generally good to great. But when they are not positive, they are terrible.

464 total lineups used. Not immediately sure where that puts them relative to other teams. But it is obviously a massive number of dink lineups. Way too many.

Karnisovas probably played important role in draft of Jokic and Nurkic.

There were a handful of other international players taken who didnt do much or anything though. How much emphasis will he put on drafting international players in Chicago?

Was he for trading Nurkic? Was that his decision?

Was he oblivious to the development of one of the least Moreyball teams in league? Share responsibility for that or put all on Coach?



He wasn't quite with team when Connelly traded draft rights to pick that became Gobert or rights to Gobert for Erik Green and cash.


Who will he have as Coach? Assume he picked Mike Malone? If so, Bulls probably want a hardass. Probably a new one but one nonetheless. European coach? Might be a possibility. Jordi Fernandez? That would be bold / risky. Messina? Less risky but still risky. Most choices will be.

Common themes for recent Raptors development successes? Older guys from outside the top schools. More than that? Maybe. Physique are different but good for their roles.

As a group the Blazers' forwards are really bad. And so are their backup SGs.

Spurs with 7 regular players at 10 plus pts / g. Raptors, Pacers and Nuggets with 6.

Teams with 3 or less may be too concentrated.

228 players played 1000 plus minutes to date or a bit less than 8 per team.

Slightly more than half of these were positive on BPM estimate.

Most of the worst were young players. The lowest BPM for a player 25 and over was for Carmelo Anthony. Bazemore 2nd, then Taurean Prince and B Forbes. Kuzma was 2nd lowest for 24 yr olds with only Dillon Brooks lower.

Biyombo was the lowest big money guy with qualifying minutes. G Harris next.

Noel with the best BPM for a guy not paid big money or on a rookie contract. Other guys with relatively high BPM and moderate salaries include D Wright, F VanVleet, Beverley and Theis.

Very little change anywhere in league averages from last season. Pace up 0.2. Biggest change might be 3pta up almost 2 / gm.

This is a big playoffs for Celtics. Full range of possible outcomes.

6th best by SRS. 8th-9th best against top 10.

Imo, Tatum is more likely to not be good enough than to be good enough to lead them to conference finals or beyond. Was on 5 game bad streak before break and has not looked good yet in return.

The starters are very good but also true for a handful plus of other teams they'll have to battle thru. They are a contender but the goal is a championship. Several projections give them a 0.5-7% chance for the title. I'd guess many Celtics fans and many with team think the chance is at upper end or higher. Some might think much higher. I am thinking 3% or less.

Bench is not good enough. About average. I would have traded some to a lot of it for a better, more veteran piece or two or three. The youth is intended to help in the future. Team salary goes from 23rd this season to 3rd next season before any changes. They will likely be locked into not quite good enough for title and faced with paying more and more and losing pieces. It will take surprising development and / or major effective trades to break to a higher level.

Without major change, I don't see chances rising much in next 2 years. I dunno exactly where to peg it. Could be declining. Another era on the horizon. 3 or 4 years away. Perhaps post Walker and Hayward or at least of lesser importance. I'll leave that for later.

RAPM updated through 8/11:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

About a half dozen players plus 2 or better who might realistically be gotten by trade. Another half dozen in free agency. For those interested in RAPM positives. Or you can chase and overpay those with more hype, more points but maybe lesser estimates impacts. Your choice GMs.