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Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Sat Jul 27, 2024 11:05 pm
by Crow
By VORP, Scoot Henderson had the worst impact in the league. 572nd place and only 1 guy was close.
Poole 3rd worst, Keyonte George 4th, Coulibaly 11th, Sochan 13th, former Euro-League MVP Micic 15th worst.
B Miller almost bottom 10%. A. Black, bottom 15%. A. Nembhard, bottom 25%.
Quit after 1 year Euroleague MVP Vezenkov, slightly above median at 279th.
Huge new contract Anunoby, 153rd best VORP. (Though, Darko has him 30th.)
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Mon Aug 12, 2024 12:10 am
by Crow
Other career leader board trivia:
Harden probably joins top 10 on VORP in '25-26. Top 7ish likely eventually.
Jokic probably passes Curry on VORP in '25-26.
C Paul may or may not be 3rd in reach 100 career VORP. Durant may or may not make it.
Westbrook 30th, probably doesn't get to top 25.
Hard to say how high Giannis A. and AD get. Kawhi may or may not reach top 25.
9 of 16 best career BPMs are currently still playing.
Or career usage rate, it is Westbrook 4th, D Mitchell 5th, LeBron 6th. Booker 10th. On ts% it is Westbrook not in top 250 and nowhere close, Mitchell 132, LeBron 59, Booker 88.
Tim Hardaway Jr., lowest qualified career TO%. Oubre 9th lowest.
5 of 9 best total rebound%s active.
LeBron passes Kobe for most regular season missed shots in 1st or 2nd game next season. Westbrook probably into 10 most next season.
Curry, all-time leaders of 3pt attempts likely will eventually go over 10,000. May go over 4,000 makes in a year or a bit longer. No one else yet over 3,000. Harden close, Lillard will get there, Thompson probably.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2024 5:57 pm
by Crow
By Bref, 6% of shots are dunk attempts. Layups 27%, corner 3s almost 10%. 30% are other 3s.
37% are listed as mid-range but 9-10% are apparently dunks or layups cuz it doesnt add up to just 100 without this assumption. So I think it becomes 27% in this accounting unless something else is happening.
Barely 2% of "heaves" are made and no team made more than 1.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2024 8:52 am
by Mike G
Last year about 300 players made 100+ FG. For 17 of these guys, at least 2/3 of their buckets were either 3's or dunks.
Code: Select all
%3+D Player Tm %3fg %Dk
.91 Sam Merrill Cle .91 .00
.83 Sam Hauser Bos .79 .04
.83 Garrison Mathews Atl .83 .00
.81 Doug McDermott tot .76 .05
.76 Luke Kennard Mem .76 .00
.75 Trey Murphy NOP .61 .14
.74 Royce O'Neale tot .73 .01
.73 Julian Champagnie SAS .62 .12
.73 Isaiah Joe OKC .66 .07
.72 Keon Ellis Sac .65 .07
%3+D Player Tm %3fg %Dk
.72 Malik Beasley Mil .70 .02
.71 Nicolas Batum tot .63 .08
.70 Matisse Thybulle Por .63 .06
.70 Quentin Grimes tot .66 .03
.68 Donte DiVincenzo NYK .64 .04
.68 Taylor Hendricks Uta .49 .19
.67 Jordan Hawkins NOP .63 .04
.66 Dorian F-Smith Brk .54 .11
.65 Grayson Allen Phx .60 .05
.64 Jonathan Isaac Orl .29 .36
.64 Dereck Lively Dal .00 .64
At the top, a couple who do not dunk; at #21 a rookie who doesn't take 3's (except in playoffs).
You might say these guys don't have much mid-range game. But they certainly vary in versatility.
If we don't
add the dunk + trey fractions but rather
multiply them, we get a different list. Single-skill guys disappear.
It's the square root of %3fg * %Dunk
Code: Select all
%3xD Player Tm %3fg %Dk
.320 Jonathan Isaac Orl .29 .36
.310 OG Anunoby tot .36 .27
.306 Obi Toppin Ind .31 .30
.304 Bilal Coulibaly Was .34 .27
.302 Wendell Carter Orl .29 .32
.301 Taylor Hendricks Uta .49 .19
.298 Derrick Jones Dal .34 .26
.291 Trey Murphy NOP .61 .14
.287 Ziaire Williams Mem .39 .21
.272 Lauri Markkanen Uta .41 .18
%3xD Player Tm %3fg %Dk
.267 Julian Champagnie SAS .62 .12
.265 Cam Whitmore Hou .37 .19
.264 Anthony Black Orl .32 .22
.264 Josh Green Dal .40 .17
.264 Victor Wembanyama SAS .23 .30
.263 Chet Holmgren OKC .26 .27
.260 Patrick Williams Chi .37 .18
.259 Keegan Murray Sac .41 .16
.258 GG Jackson Mem .42 .16
.255 Larry Nance NOP .20 .33
.255 Kr. Porziņģis Bos .28 .23
The 3*D list looks better to me. Here it's limited to guys with 300+ FG:
Code: Select all
%3xD Player Tm %3fg %Dk
.306 Obi Toppin Ind .31 .30
.272 Lauri Markkanen Uta .41 .18
.264 Victor Wembanyama SAS .23 .30
.263 Chet Holmgren OKC .26 .27
.259 Keegan Murray Sac .41 .16
.255 Kristaps Porziņģis Bos .28 .23
.241 Kelly Oubre Phl .26 .22
.240 John Collins Uta .22 .27
.239 Rui Hachimura LAL .27 .21
.232 Jalen Johnson Atl .20 .27
%3xD Player Tm %3fg %Dk
.218 P.J. Washington tot .37 .13
.215 Brook Lopez Mil .40 .11
.211 Jaden McDaniels Min .28 .16
.211 Jabari Smith Hou .37 .12
.209 Aaron Nesmith Ind .44 .10
.209 Jayson Tatum Bos .34 .13
.208 Aaron Gordon Den .10 .43
.203 Jeremy Sochan SAS .21 .20
.200 Max Strus Cle .55 .07
.200 Naz Reid Min .42 .10
Obi was the player who made me wonder about such a ranking.
Letting in guys with at least 5 FG:
Code: Select all
%3xD Player Tm %3fg %Dk
.471 Jordan Walsh Bos .33 .67
.375 Mouhamed Gueye Atl .38 .38
.373 Mãozinha Pereira Mem .28 .50
.346 Admiral Schofield Orl .60 .20
.346 Jacob Toppin NYK .20 .60
.337 Ousmane Dieng OKC .43 .27
.330 Andre Jackson Mil .34 .32
.325 Olivier-M Prosper Dal .33 .33
.320 Jonathan Isaac Orl .29 .36
.310 OG Anunoby tot .36 .27
.306 Obi Toppin Ind .31 .30
Jordan Walsh had 2 treys and 4 dunks -- one from the 3-10' range.?
Yes the younger Toppin had 5 FG.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 7:20 pm
by Crow
On an apparent regularized rTS% combined scoring "factor" at craftednba.com, nearly 60% of minutes qualified playoff leaders were "bigs". Only 5% were SFs and decidedly role players. Guards were moderately under-represented.
Usage would affect impact along with rTS%.
Trivia or important? Could be the latter, assuming quality data understood properly. Value derived from looking at, shaping the data into findings. Use analytic products for analysis.
Only 40% of top 10 were "stars".
Pacers and Bucks each had 3 of top 20, Celtics only Luke Kornet. No Luka in top 20, in fact only 66th and slightly negative.
But Celtics pull up with 6 of top 31 and 7 of 41. Cavs 2 of top 40, under-represented. Suns just 2. NYK, 1. Sixers 2 but Embid 40th. Mavs, 2 role players. Nuggets 3 but not Murray this time. Heat, 3 bench players. Pacers 4 of top 40. Thunder 2 role players. Magic 1, headed to none if Fultz is gone. Lakers 2. Clippers 2 but not Kawhi or PG.
Jokic just 23rd. LeBron 19th. SGA 49th. Not the enhancement level you'd want / maybe expect. Booker 7th and Durant 10th is noteworthy given modest star appearance rate.
Regular season rTS% leading 10? 8 centers, 1 PF and Grayson Allen. Only players with 1500+ minutes over +5%. It is not a common indication and may be fairly random outside players with high frequency shooting at the rim.
A start, fwiw.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 7:51 pm
by Crow
Playoff VORP leaders (descending):
Doncic, Jokic, Edwards, White, Haliburton, SGA, Tatum...
Doing it mostly by means other than rTS%.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 10:49 pm
by Mike G
Pacers and Bucks each had 3 of top 20, Celtics only Luke Kornet. No Luka in top 20, in fact only 66th and slightly negative.
Pacers and Bucks each with DRtg of 119 in playoffs.
Luke Kornet. ok.
Mavs were +4.8 with Luka and -2.2 without him. Whatever.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2024 11:46 pm
by Mike G
2024
WNBA totals by position (kinda) :
Code: Select all
pos min %min WS WS/40
G 34745 .46 62.5 .072
F 29294 .39 82.3 .108
C 11915 .16 45.0 .145
tot 75954 1.00 189.8 .100
includes G-F and F-G
C includes C-F and F-C
Without this shift, the minutes-distribution is even more skewed away from bigs.
WS*40/min actually summed to .0971; so it's really WS per 38.3 minutes, to get .100 avg
No league mvp has averaged >5.2 Ast/G (C. Cooper 1999). The last 20 have been <4. Scorer-passers are super rare.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 12:20 am
by Crow
Looked at rTS%, to see what it shows.
Doubt more than a few have.
Player impacts show in various places. Some metrics are better or more proven than others.
Better to look around than not.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 12:24 am
by Crow
WNBA by WS/40 and position is an interesting look.
Says something about the metric, the league and / or relative player value.
Also would be useful to see by better metric but availability and ease are factors.
Would like to see same comparison of NBA.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 12:37 am
by Crow
By WNBA SRS, the top 4 seeds should wipeout their opponents in upcoming playoffs. That likely includes Fever and maybe Sky.
And in 2023, they went 8-1.
Then the top 2 seeds went 6-1 in 2nd round. After that the top seed went 3-1 in finals.
That was far far from parity.
Didn't realize 1st round series length went from 1 win required to 2 just last year.
Slightly more wins by losing squads in other recent years but usually only 1-2 series saw the winners drop more than 1 game.
Will compare to NBA.
Last time 7 of 15 NBA series saw the losers get 2+ wins. 2023, 8. 2022, 10. 2021, 9. 2020, 7. Longer series played a role in results, providing more opportunity and less pressure; but overall way more competitive series results.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2024 1:06 am
by Crow
Of 36 2024 WNBA draft picks, 15 have played at all so far and just 7 have averaged 3 pts per game. Of 11 playing 10+ minutes per game, when available / playing, just 4 are over .060 ws/40.
But the league is expanding.
A near 1st rounder has 0 pts and 1 assist total for the season and a horrendous ws/40.
For the 2023 draft class, 21 of 36 have played at all with 9 averaging 3+ pts / gm. 5 are over .060 ws/40 and nobody else is anywhere close.
For the 2022 draft class, 25 of 36 have played at all with 11 averaging 3+ pts / gm. 9 are over .060 ws/40 and nobody else is anywhere close.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2024 2:45 pm
by Crow
Probably a common statement around league but last season's Laker had highest offensive efficiency in team history. Just 15th best last season.
7 of 9 highest in team history remain 80s Showtime Lakers though with '86-7 team having 2nd place now. They barely stayed #1 over '22-23 but finally fell.
However last season Lakers also had worst defensive efficiency in team history.
So hire a Coach without coaching experience but with a playing record as completely an offensive player.
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2024 3:19 pm
by Crow
Last regular season was best in LeBron era Lakers on assist rate. Way down in playoffs but apparently that is common in addition to 6 possessions slower pace. Lost most of their regular season edge on assisted 2pt rate, which was 4th highest in league.
Surprising to me at first glance, the Spurs had the highest assisted fg% in regular season on both 2s and 3s. But I guess that means least self creation, so maybe that shouldn't be surprising.
Pacers went from 7th highest on 2pt assist rate in regular season to by far highest in playoffs. For possible good and not.
Nuggets went from 3rd rs to 2nd in playoffs.
More time should be spent on researching and thinking about this never before mentioned to my knowledge aspect of play.
Thunder 28th in rs, 15th in playoffs. Mavs were only conference finalist below average in playoffs after being 21st in rs.
Celtics were 26th in rs but rose to 6th in playoffs. Timberwolves went from 9th to 4th.
Trend at top is to go high.
Bucks went from 25th rs to 9th in playoffs.
Thunder not rising was not surprising given SGA dominant style but is this an issue, a giant issue or not? More to research.
2023, Nuggets were highest here among conference finalists and 4th in playoffs. 2022, Warriors 1st, Celtics 3rd. 2021 Bucks clearly below average, Suns barely above. 2020, Laker 4th, Heat 3rd.
Not an absolute trend but there is a trend. Fyi Thunder, who traded away Giddey for yet another small wing defender.
2014 to 2019, Warriors 1st in playoffs 5 times, 2nd once.
2012 Thunder, 12th of 16 in playoffs, only time in finals.
Just one aspect of team play but worth knowing, possibly changing. Some evidence Giddey was not the right guy (though it was still pretty early to decide that), but do they need a strong passer to help 2pt assist rate? Could be. What will it be this season and playoffs?
Re: Statistical Trivia
Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2024 4:40 pm
by Crow
Average playoffs 3pta rate for last 5 champions: slightly below average. Celtics this last time were first and by large margin but only 1 of the other 4 was high. Average would be clearly below average without 2024 Celtics.
2014 - 2019 Warriors were twice tops and very high on average but modestly less later. By choice, happenstance or because of copycats?
Which route to select here or just do whatever you've been doing?
Mavs 4th, Thunder 5th, Timberwolves 8th, Pacers 11th? Who changes?
Nuggets 12th, Bucks 13th, Knicks 14th, Lakers 15th, Suns shockingly last. Lots of low paths, intentional or not?
Is there one right answer or go your own way?
2012 Thunder were 6th but Heat were modestly higher.
Both assisted 2pt rate and 3pta rate are probably important. Maybe the combination is more important than either alone.
By combined rank on these 2, 2024 Celtics were far ahead of the other conference finalists. They were high on many other things but the only other major stats I see where they were #1 in playoffs was lowest fouling rate and lowest on frequency of 10-16 foot shots (an aspect related to the 2 shot distribution details focused on). This is news. I'd say important. Who knew it previously? Who else values it?
The value of intense custom data tracking and engineering can be uncovered from detailed study of it.
The value of public stats can be uncovered and optimized from detailed study of it.
Teams should have as many or more analytic positions or hours devoted to study (and explanation & advocacy) as production. Imo.