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Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2023 5:57 pm
by Mike G
DarkStar48 wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 4:15 pm
Mike G wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 1:28 am ...For just 5 games...
That’s only one 5-game playoff series...

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2023 6:07 pm
by Crow
Edwards with the big game last night.

BPM jumps to +5.2.

OK, let's see what happens next 10 - 20 games.

I generally follow the data, without doing a lot of speculation. If the data changes and stays changed, I'll change some.

TS% and Assist% up moderately. 3pt fg% way up, while 3pt rate is down for 2nd year to career low. FT rate is near career low. Shots at rim rate just 1/2 of career average. Usage up slightly. Sustainable scoring efficiency? We'll see. I have skepticism. A lot of the improvement is a result of 47% from 3 so far. Mid-range fg% at almost 50% after 3 years near 35%.

Steals, blocks and turnovers at career worst.

Darko 3pt fg% projection was 35% yesterday.

DPM up to 21st. Borderline all-star by that.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 5:22 pm
by Crow
Spurs lineups with Pop:

6 of 8 most used negative, with 5 of them being horrendous.

80% of 20 most used pairs negative, most awful.

Sochan with starters -17 to -28 with Wembanyama.

Sochan, no real stat strengths. -5 BPM.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 5:29 pm
by Crow

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 11:21 pm
by Crow
Before season I the Griz had good depth and lots of it.

By BPM so far, 7 are decent of better but 9 are weak to horrible.

That is thin.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 11:25 pm
by Crow
Lakers lineups:

5 most used all negative. Only 1 over 4 minutes per game and just 4 clearly over 1.5 minutes per game.

70% of 20 most used pairs negative, 40% awful or worse.

For 6 positives, James in 3, Davis in 2, Wood 4, Russell 2, Reddish 1. Reaves none. Wood in the 3 best.

Wood started in last game. Should he start going forward? Under the circumstances, I'd guess yes.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2023 11:14 pm
by Crow
Popovich starting lineup: -17pts / 100p. Only other lineup over 2 minutes / game, even worse.

173 lineup used. 72% negative.

Awful results, highly questionable thinking.

Sochan - Wembanyama, -20pts / 100p and worst pair in top 10 most used. Vassell - Wembanyama just barely positive. No other pair in 10 most used close, most terrible.

Absolutely worst SRS in league.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2023 11:45 pm
by Mike G
Should Pop just "think" his players to be better?

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:26 am
by Crow
Yes.

For $10-12+ mil salary, this season should have at least much better "signs".

And really anyone in absolute last place on SRS is doing at minimum a poor job and probably a terrible job.

28th offensive efficiency, 26th defensive efficiency (119), absolute lowest ft rate, 4th lowest shot frquency at the rim, absolute worst opponent efg%, bottom 20% on 5 factors, 12 straight losses, 1 home victory all season.

Lots of awful.

I think a number of people would call out most coaches if they had these numbers.

The Sochan experiment is very unlikely to "work" for long-term and has been as bad as imaginable so far. Sucked in October, briefly decent in early November, sucking even more in late November than October.

7 of 9 most used pairs for Wembanyama are worse over last 2 weeks than season as whole.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:40 am
by Crow
Lakers were 19th on SRS before tonight, 22nd tomorrow.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:56 am
by Crow
Warriors starting lineup is averaging -9pts / 100p. It was +24 last season.

Curry - Thompson - Green trio is -4. It was +8 last season.

The 6 most used trios are all at least moderately negative. The 12 most used trios last season were all positive.

The 3 pairs between Curry Thompson and team's are all moderately negative. Last season they were +5 to +8.

I am not even going to compare to last title winning team.

Warriors win% is team's second worst in 12 years.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:18 am
by Crow
Lakers most used lineups is +3 / 100p but only 2 of the 9 most used are positive.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:21 am
by Crow
5 of the 7 most used Clippers lineups are dynamite and only 1 is negative. They all have 3 or less of the big 4 names.


THE BIG 4 ALTOGETHER ARE -19PTs / 100 possessions in first 96 minutes.

12 of 13 most used pairs are positive.

The way far worst player pair among the big 4 was Westbrook - Harden at -15.

Below the first level lineup and sub-lineup data, there must either a lot of stuff not working or really bad or both.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:38 pm
by Crow
Warriors have missed C Paul greatly.

Re: Western Conference commentary

Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 1:44 pm
by Crow
2 of 3 Warriors lineups over 2 minutes per game are terrible.

Thompson - Looney and Curry - Wiggins are both very bad. Curry - Green and Thompson - Green are both. Wiggins - Green is very bad.
5 reasons to change starting lineup and more.