2023-24 Title contenders

[Mike G]

Not that you have to answer, but do / did you use exponents a lot in your work?

Yes, a lot of exponents. No fear of exponents.

[Crow]

Celtics and Sixers at top of contenders... followed by Clippers?

6-0, +10 net margin in December. Great defense. Offense for season lags because of November but December was fine.

[Mike G]

The Clippers have enjoyed abnormal health. Their main guys have hardly missed a game. We expect 60-65% attendance.
Kawhi going career high 35 mpg.

[Crow]

Top lineups of past titlewinners:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1742 ... 75630?s=20

[Crow]

BRef's title odds are too rigidly based on SRS for me. I will fwiw mention that they currently give 17 teams a nonzero chance to win the championship, 10 with 1+% chance. Those estimates seem reasonable.

6 teams will 5+% chance? That might be about right; but not right imo on all 6 teams they name, since it doesn't include Nuggets or Bucks.

[DSMok1]

An approach I like to use is to just add up the BPM of the top six players that we expect at the top of a team's playoff rotation. Then add a bonus for any veteran teams that we think have another gear in the playoffs.

[Crow]

Who are the top 4 by this method? This season, last season?

Benches don't tend to matter that much, but the superior benches may get a but short-changed this way.

[Crow]

Last season, Nuggets summed to about+15, Heat +8.

This season, Celtics +20, Bucks +10. Timberwolves +12, Nuggets +14, Thunder +16, Clippers +15.

Quick rounding, best 6th man if minutes were close.

[Crow]

Eventually the dialogue will turn to playoff seeding and possible / suggested maneuvering with it.

Right now, the East has close race for 2-5 and then at least 6-8. The West 1-4 and the rest.

Plenty of possibilities for desired or nightmare matchups or at least talk of such.

[v-zero]

The Celtics seem virtually undeniable in the East. Their depth is unparalleled, they have gone deep for several years now, and their nearest competitors have injury issues and (in the case of the Bucks) dubious coaching and roster design. The Knicks are a dark horse, perhaps, but Thibs runs his guys ragged in the regular season so they smell like a second round exit to me.

The West, on the other hand, looks like it could be one of four or five teams. The Thunder look very well placed, but without playoff experience they are probably a year or three early.

[Mike G]

Last year, the Celts were knocked out by a team 6.5 pts/100 worse in SRS.
This year, they are several points better, but some teams are within 6 in SRS: NYK, Cle, Phl.
Of these, the Cavs seem most serious. They're on a 14-1 roll, with 6 of those wins by 20+; only loss being to the Bucks.
Mil is 7 pts back and still (?) getting it together. If Embiid is out, Giannis is by far the most unstoppable player in the East.

[v-zero]

Last year the Celtics relied heavily on Brown and Smart. Smart has been replaced by an all round better fit and player. Brown is still overrated but seems to have settled more into a role and is less likely to try to take over a game.

Last year's Miami run is something I will be shocked to see repeated, good as Spoelstra is.

[Crow]

BRef has the Celtics with more than 3 times the probability of anyone else at 46.7%

Add Timberwolves and Thunder and those 3 are given more than 75% likelihood. Cavs and Clippers are only others given 5+%.

5 more given around 2% chances then 7 additional with fractions of a point.


I'll think on my latest division of chances.

[Crow]

NBA Championship 2023-24

Boston Celtics 27%
Denver Nuggets 28%
Los Angeles Clippers 9%
Milwaukee Bucks 7%
Phoenix Suns 4%
New York Knicks 2%
Cleveland Cavaliers 3%
Oklahoma City Thunder 6%
Minnesota Timberwolves
7%
Philadelphia 76ers 4%
Other 3%

[Mike G]

You like Den 19 times as much (28/1.5) as b-r.com forecast, and Bos half as much (roughly). Interesting.
Last year the Nuggs had home court advantage throughout the playoffs, and this year headed for #4 in the West, which means only round-1 HCA. Do you figure their seeding will improve, or just that they will notch it up for the postseason?

They also total 60-40 for the East, while you are almost the opposite.
And the West is back to dominance, winning 57% of 300 games vs East.