Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2023 11:27 pm
Link: https://www.numberfire.com/nba/teams/power-rankings
APBRmetrics
Analysis of basketball through objective evidence
http://www.apbr.org/metrics/
2023-24 team win projection contest
Page 4 of 13
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2023 11:37 pm
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2023 11:39 pm
okay, my revised entry,
BOS 56.3
PHI 54.0
LAL 51.7
CLE 51.1
MIL 50.7
NOP 48.2
DEN 48.2
PHO 48.2
ATL 45.6
LAC 45.3
NYK 44.5
MEM 44.5
MIA 44.5
CHI 41.7
TOR 41.5
DAL 41.5
MIN 41.3
UTA 41.2
ORL 39.5
SAC 38.8
BRK 37.6
GSW 37.2
OKC 34.9
WAS 33.6
IND 31.7
CHO 30.4
POR 28.9
SAS 27.3
DET 25.3
HOU 24.8
BOS 56.3
PHI 54.0
LAL 51.7
CLE 51.1
MIL 50.7
NOP 48.2
DEN 48.2
PHO 48.2
ATL 45.6
LAC 45.3
NYK 44.5
MEM 44.5
MIA 44.5
CHI 41.7
TOR 41.5
DAL 41.5
MIN 41.3
UTA 41.2
ORL 39.5
SAC 38.8
BRK 37.6
GSW 37.2
OKC 34.9
WAS 33.6
IND 31.7
CHO 30.4
POR 28.9
SAS 27.3
DET 25.3
HOU 24.8
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2023 11:42 pm
Got it. Got it.(v-zero) I thought I would just double check that my changes since originally posting my numbers have found their way to your spreadsheet.
Got it.(DQuinn1575) okay, my revised entry,..
All now seem to predict 1230 wins.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2023 5:02 am
FWIW Team Rankings looks like they took a "Vegas line" and removed the juice in a way to get to 1230 totals win. Should be a good benchmark entry.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2023 1:16 pm
That was the case last year, too. I considered throwing them out, but left them just to see. And sure enough they tracked my "vegas" entry to the end.
I'm inclined to remain with one called "vegas" since it is the one to beat in the most universal (or superficial) sense. When I find one that seems to fit it (or one is submitted), I have always lopped off the profit margin to make them add to 1230. TeamRankings seemed to do it slightly differently.
Last year there were some differences in the two:These would only cause separation in the 'standings' when a team is between the two projections.
I'm inclined to remain with one called "vegas" since it is the one to beat in the most universal (or superficial) sense. When I find one that seems to fit it (or one is submitted), I have always lopped off the profit margin to make them add to 1230. TeamRankings seemed to do it slightly differently.
Last year there were some differences in the two:
Code: Select all
tm vegas TmRk tm vegas TmRk
Den 52.1 50.5 Cha 33.1 35.4
Por 40.1 38.8 Ind 22.1 23.7
Phl 51.1 50.1 Uta 23.1 24.3
GSW 52.1 51.1 Mem 48.1 49.1
Atl 46.1 45.3 LAC 51.1 52.0
Tor 47.1 46.4 Min 48.1 48.6
Bos 53.1 52.5 Det 29.1 29.5
OKC 24.1 23.6 Mil 52.1 52.5
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2023 6:51 am
With the latest Harden news, it was smart for any projections that accounted for the possibility of him not playing at all, or eventually getting traded. (Betting markets do this indirectly.) May provide a non-trivial systematic advantage in the contest.DarkStar48 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 24, 2023 8:47 pm They have a projection for various Harden scenarios, but I think the Harden plays for PHI case should be the one used in the contest.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2023 2:45 pm
Even if a player is traded, one can assume he's traded for equal value -- in proficiency * minutes -- so it's a wash in the net wins provided.
In the case of Harden, it seems likely his value, by any measure, is not going to be met by another team's offer.
I threw him 600 minutes rather than zero, and didn't go optimistic on anyone else: 2200 for Embiid, after 2284 got him MVP.
So my prediction of 38 wins for Phl is 10 below the avg of the other 7 here.
In the case of Harden, it seems likely his value, by any measure, is not going to be met by another team's offer.
I threw him 600 minutes rather than zero, and didn't go optimistic on anyone else: 2200 for Embiid, after 2284 got him MVP.
So my prediction of 38 wins for Phl is 10 below the avg of the other 7 here.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2023 6:39 am
Why would one assume this? There's lots of trades of present value for future value. It is often not equal value for a single given year.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2023 1:23 pm
It's a default assumption, in lieu of being able to see the future. 
At the beginning of the season, most or all teams are hoping to make the playoffs. Closer to the trading deadline, some teams will be tanking for the future.
This year, b-r.com is doing their projections from day 1. I've put them into the spreadsheet and find they sum to just 40 wins on avg. Exactly. So adding 1 W per team, our contest looks like this:
With a lot of regression-to-mean, teams project thus:
Probably the only time both my team and I are on top here.
At the beginning of the season, most or all teams are hoping to make the playoffs. Closer to the trading deadline, some teams will be tanking for the future.
This year, b-r.com is doing their projections from day 1. I've put them into the spreadsheet and find they sum to just 40 wins on avg. Exactly. So adding 1 W per team, our contest looks like this:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
eWin 3.8 5.0
trzu 4.7 6.3
ncs. 5.4 7.0
dtka 5.4 6.8
Crow 5.7 7.0
vzro 6.3 8.3
emin 6.4 8.9
DQin 6.6 8.0
Code: Select all
best W worst W
Ind 50.9 Hou 30.2
Den 47.0 Uta 34.5
OKC 46.5 SAS 34.8
Phx 46.3 Por 35.1
NOP 45.5 Atl 35.5
Cle 44.0 Chi 36.3
GSW 43.9 Cha 37.8
LAL 43.8 Mia 38.0
Phl 43.4 LAC 38.1
Was 43.1 NYK 39.2
Mil 43.0 Brk 39.7
Bos 42.7 Tor 39.9
Det 42.6 Mem 41.2
Min 42.4 Dal 41.3
Sac 41.6 Orl 41.4
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 3:12 am
Thanks again for scorekeeping.
We'll be after you. I probably won't make too much of the standings until a notable portion of the season is in the books and the regression is lessened.
We'll be after you. I probably won't make too much of the standings until a notable portion of the season is in the books and the regression is lessened.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 4:25 am
@Mike G, just a request to include r^2 determination coefficient in the contest analysis.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 3:15 pm
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2
eWin 4.55 5.81 .15
trzu 4.69 6.34 .29
Crow 5.01 6.67 .26
dtka 5.44 7.03 .19
ncs. 5.63 7.03 .17
DQin 5.88 7.61 .22
vzro 6.07 7.86 .22
emin 6.09 8.86 .19
Quite a bit more, and Crow takes 2nd.
But everyone's errors increase substantially with this.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 4:44 pm
Because they essentially start with the Vegas lines, these projections do a nice job with limited games played:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/projections/standings/
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/projections/standings/
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2023 11:10 am
Almost every East team looks worse, every West team better overnight. West 3-1 vs East.
Averages are now 43 Wins in the West and 39 in the East.
If b-r.com is just having issues, this post may be deleted. Meanwhile here's the contest with APBR on the left and others on the right.Vegas is an amalgam of the 3 submitted which actually predicted all 30 teams.
Averages are now 43 Wins in the West and 39 in the East.
If b-r.com is just having issues, this post may be deleted. Meanwhile here's the contest with APBR on the left and others on the right.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
eWin 5.06 6.02 .13 vegas 5.57 6.97 .29
trzu 5.95 6.94 .20 EExp 5.65 7.31 .31
dtka 6.11 7.53 .13 EBPI 5.77 6.93 .19
Crow 6.15 7.30 .18 KPel 5.89 7.13 .10
ncs. 6.33 7.31 .14 DRKO 6.06 7.05 .14
emin 6.95 8.70 .22 ChKl 6.08 7.62 .27
DQin 7.08 8.13 .16 IanL 6.11 7.92 .32
medi 7.09 8.49 .21 LEBR 6.21 6.95 .10
vzro 7.15 8.52 .13 NuFi 6.60 8.73 .20