2025 NBA title contention

[Crow]

3 of last 10 underdogs, all less than +200. These 3 winners were 3 of the 5 shortest underdogs.

[Mike G]

I think a 1 seed has only lost in rd 1 a couple times in NBA history? So it's pretty close to 100% win-likely.

[Crow]

AI, with some included confusion, says 6 8 seeds have won against #1 in first round, including once each in 2021-3.

https://www.google.com/search?q=a+1+see ... BA+history

Take 2021-24 as a time period (if you want) and record is 5W-3L or a 37.5% rate of loss by #1. Or stick to a larger sample.

[Mike G]

1998 - New York Knicks beat the Miami Heat -- #7 over #2
2000 - Sacramento Kings beat the Los Angeles Lakers -- nope
2006 - Charlotte Bobcats beat the Boston Celtics -- shocker; how did these teams sneak into the playoffs (26 and 33 wins)
2012 - Philadelphia 76ers beat the Chicago Bulls -- yes, D Rose was out
2023 - Miami Heat beat the Milwaukee Bucks -- yes, with Giannis out

Along with the first instance -- Den>Sea '94 -- that would be 3*. Chances of a star going down are more than zero but not 15-35%.
AI is amusing if you don't expect much. Maybe changed since yesterday but no sign of "once each in 2021-3."

* - Apparently every time you hit that link the AI has a different story. It's "generative" and "experimental"

[Crow]

"once each in 2021-3." was my phrase based on what AI showed.

I should have crosschecked more or ignored the AI and done all myself.

I'll have to go back and check 2021 and 2022.

[Crow]

NBC Boston says 6 8th seeds won

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nba/nba ... 0standings.


I am still checking but don't really care much.

2023 Heat got the 8th seed out of play-in I think.

Appears I was misled by AI on 2021 and 2022.

So not frequent recently but still almost 20% of an occurance in last 31 years, 10% of the chances . My assumption of 85% win for Thunder in 1st is fairly consistent with that level. (revised to be correct)

But this is a small part of the overall prediction / chance at title.

[Mike G]

In 21 years since the first round became best of 7, there have been four 8/1 upsets.
4/42 is not quite 10%, and in half those the #1 was without their mvp.

Code: Select all

year    #8   srs8    srs1    #1   diff
2007   GSW    .00    7.28   Dal   7.28
2011   Mem   2.55    5.86   SAS   3.31
2012   Phl   3.59    7.43   Chi   3.84
2023   Mia   -.13    3.61   Mil   3.74

2025   Sac    .21   13.31   OKC  13.10
2025   Dal    .14   13.31   OKC  13.17
2025   Mem   4.63   13.31   OKC   8.68
2025   LAC   4.07   13.31   OKC   9.24

Listing the 4 teams most likely to be #8 according to b-r.com; all 17-19% likely.
Only one legit monumental upset in the SRS-disadvantage range we would see this year.
(I do think the Clipps could win a couple.)

[TeemoTeejay]

My periodically revised estimates to win title:

Celtics 25%
Cavs 21
Thunder 26
Nuggets 7
Rockets 4
Warriors 5
Knicks 3
Timberwolves 5
Field 4

Lakers are beating the rockets in 5 lol

[Crow]

They wouldn't meet til 2nd or 3rd round (unless there is a major shift) and both get out of at least first round.

[TeemoTeejay]

They wouldn't meet til 2nd or 3rd round (unless there is a major shift) and both get out of at least first round.

I’d say the rockets are pretty likely to lose in the first round depending on who they play

[Crow]

My periodically revised estimates to win title:

Celtics 25%
Cavs 17
Thunder 28
Nuggets 4
Rockets 4
Warriors 4
Knicks 3
Timberwolves 3
Clippers 3
Lakers 2
Pacers 3
Field 4

[Crow]

Revised as of May 7 estimated title chances:

Celtics 13%
Cavs 10
Thunder 26
Nuggets 8
Warriors 7
Knicks 13
Timberwolves 9
Pacers 14

[Crow]

Jaylen Brown is only player on 3 best teams on full 2nd max.

Celtics also heavily using $30 mil players.

Is the championship design 1-2 1st maxes, $15-30 mil players, rookie contracts and filler?

2nd maxes kick in for various leaders next season.

Teams who have top 4 contributors making under $20 mil are doing well directly and indirectly by allowing money to go elsewhere.

That works for Thunder, now. In 2026-27 it could be 3 maxes, a $30m and 2 pushing $20m. High and accepted or "too high"? In 2027-28 SGA goes to 2nd max and some more guys get paid or gone by then.
Dort and C Wallace seem in jeopardy of future cap motivated trades. K Williams and Hartenstein might be as well.


Zubac was under $12 mil but gets a 50% raise next season. Still good value but gets tougher on Clippers to spend enough elsewhere. Was Bogdanovic a mistake? Seems like it based on this playoffs.

Rockets have plenty of decisions based on performance, fit and salary design.

Knicks made their choices and are presumably fill up and settled, though they could swap somebody out if an opportunity was found.

Mavs were at 2 multiple maxes and some $15 mil players. Remains to seen what Irving gets / does after injury. Thompson not a bad contract but not that likely to help much either. Rest of roster is pretty weak.

[Crow]

Rockets with youngest starting center. All others are vets but Thunder and Cavs are next youngest.

Timberwolves with youngest star. Pacers 2nd. SGA 2+ months from 27. Tatum 2+ months past 27. J Brown at 28.5, Mitchell 28.7, Brunson 28.8. Jokic 30.2. Giannis 30.5. This era has some run but how long? It will be about performance and cap management.

3 years from now? 5?



Best cap strategy with an older multi-max guy? Probably not with another? Warriors did it several times and bubble Lakers but I lean against in abstract, in general, in today's context.

[Crow]

Of teams still playing, Timberwolves spend the most on salary, Celtics 2nd. Thunder, Rockets and Pacers least.

For starters, it is Celtics most, TWolves 2nd. Thunder and Rockets least.

For first 3 off bench, it is Cavs most, Thunder 2nd. Nuggets and Knicks least.

For rest of bench, it is Rockets way above everybody else. Cavs, Celtics, Warriors least.