2024-25 team win projection contest

[TeemoTeejay]

well all of our 76ers predictions are gonna be off now with embiid being out for punching someone lol

[Mike G]

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
24pr   5.44   6.9   .26      perW   7.41   9.0   .07
4141   5.86   7.6            dtka   7.54   9.0   .26
WShr   6.06   7.2   .30      DQin   8.12   9.7   .26
bpmW   6.25   7.3   .30      emin   8.17   9.8   .26
TmTj   6.99   9.0   .30      Crow   8.24   9.9   .27
avgA   7.04   8.4   .26      medi   8.29  10.2   .25
eWin   7.24   8.8   .10      24py   8.68  10.6   .26

[Crow]

Might have some regrets on 5 projections. But it is early. Too much? We'll see.

[Crow]

As you adjust the measuring stick, let us know what it is currently.

2.8 from lead, 1.3 from 5th at the moment.

[TeemoTeejay]

It looks like not predicting a wide range leads to better results, I’ve noticed when I saw LEBRON projections a few years back it was more narrow like that

I wonder how mine would look if the range was more 20-55 wins than what I went with

[Crow]

The ranking of 41-41 indicates how favored regressed entries are right now.

24pr is prior season regressed halfway to 41?

[Mike G]

The ranking of 41-41 indicates how favored regressed entries are right now.

24pr is prior season regressed halfway to 41?

Yes, it's (24py + 41)/2
Right now the b-r.com projections are totaling 1200 wins or 40.0 avg; so I am adding one win per team.
I'm not de-regressing. They have in the past been abruptly adjusted, so that's a possibility.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
24pr   5.71   7.1   .23      perW   7.22   8.7   .11
WShr   6.02   7.2   .31      dtka   7.48   9.0   .27
bpmW   6.13   7.2   .33      DQin   8.16   9.6   .27
4141   6.18   7.7            medi   8.26  10.3   .24
TmTj   6.92   8.9   .32      Crow   8.38   9.9   .27
eWin   7.00   8.5   .13      emin   8.44   9.8   .26
avgA   7.05   8.3   .28      24py   8.65  10.8   .23

Here are rankings of our average deviations from last year's Pythagorean Wins, and from the regressed version.

Code: Select all

24py  avg. dev.  24pr    
7.1   perW      6.1   Crow
6.8   eWin      5.9   emin
5.4   bpmW      5.6   medi
5.2   emin      5.1   DQin
5.2   Crow      4.9   TmTj
5.1   TmTj      4.6   dtka
5.0   DQin      4.2   perW
4.6   WShr      3.8   eWin
4.3   dtka      3.0   bpmW
4.3   medi      2.2   WShr

Win Shares is leading by sticking close to both; like in between.

[Crow]

Every point on current SRS appears to change BRef projection by about 1 win generally but only a half win at the very bottom.


I think +1 point on net margin has been estimated in other work to be "worth" +2.7 wins, on average. Correct me if I'm wrong; but based on that (or a little less), there is a lot of regression from current results. Certainly should be some but how much? It will decline with time and the credibility of the projection will gradually improve.

[Mike G]

Over- and under-achieving teams relative to our AvgA

Code: Select all

over   tm   avgA    b-r      over    tm   avgA    b-r
12.8  Was   22.9   35.7     -18.3   Phl   48.6   30.3
11.1  Por   25.7   36.8     -14.4   NOP   45.4   31.0
10.5  Brk   27.0   37.5     -11.4   Mil   45.9   34.5
9.9   SAS   33.7   43.6      -9.0   Min   51.3   42.3
9.5   Det   29.5   39.0      -7.2   Den   49.3   42.1
8.8   GSW   46.1   54.9      -6.5   Ind   44.4   37.9
7.9   Cle   47.7   55.6      -6.1   Dal   49.8   43.7
7.6   LAC   37.2   44.8      -5.6   Sac   46.8   41.2
6.6   Cha   29.5   36.1      -5.3   Mem   42.8   37.5
6.0   Hou   42.0   48.0      -4.9   Atl   38.8   33.9
3.5   Tor   30.0   33.5      -3.6   Uta   29.7   26.1
3.4   Chi   30.8   34.2      -3.4   Orl   42.8   39.4
2.3   OKC   55.9   58.2      -2.8   Bos   57.7   54.9
1.7   NYK   46.8   48.5      -1.2   Phx   47.4   46.2
0.1   LAL   40.8   40.9      -1.0   Mia   42.8   41.8

[Crow]

The top, with a few exceptions, is not doing as well as expected and the bottom is doing better.

That could change or it doesnt. Is a tank coming? The first chapter or the first part of the first chapter is in the books but a long way to the ending.

[Mike G]

The top, with a few exceptions, is not doing as well as expected and the bottom is doing better.

Yes. The "overs" on the left are mostly weak teams that look 'not that bad'. On the right are almost entirely teams that we guessed would do well. A lot of this is due to regression to the mean at b-r.com.

However, there are a few that have thus far flipped from above to below average, or vise versa. The regression actually makes their situation less extreme than their performance to date would project.

I think +1 point on net margin has been estimated in other work to be "worth" +2.7 wins, on average...

This would be a straight-line projection, while the pythagorean estimator is a sort of S-curve that approached but never reaches zero or 82 wins.

With the current 112.5 pts/G avg in the league, and an exponent of 16 in the Pythagorean formula, the 2.7 wins/Pt estimator compares like this:

Code: Select all

MOV   2.7   Pyth    1+
16   84.2   74.4   1.05
15   81.5   73.3   1.17
14   78.8   72.2   1.30
13   76.1   70.9   1.45
12   73.4   69.4   1.59
11   70.7   67.8   1.75
10   68.0   66.1   1.91
9    65.3   64.2   2.07
8    62.6   62.1   2.22
7    59.9   59.9   2.37
6    57.2   57.5   2.51
5    54.5   55.0   2.64
4    51.8   52.4   2.74
3    49.1   49.6   2.82
2    46.4   46.8   2.88
1    43.7   43.9   2.91
0    41.0   41.0   

The final column is the Pyth wins value of an additional point in MOV. The 2.7 constant is reasonable up to about +/- 6 or 7 in MOV. Obviously it's not possible to win 84 games out of 82, no matter how good you are.

[Crow]

That is a good curve.

Still suggests lots of regression in projections, especially in the middle I think. The differential exists immediately and is sizeable and compounds though it tapers.

[Mike G]

The dread "41-41 for everyone" entry has sunk to the 2nd division.

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
bpmW   5.75   7.3   .39      4141   7.09   8.8   
24pr   5.89   7.8   .25      dtka   7.23   8.6   .36
WShr   5.92   7.3   .38      DQin   7.48   9.1   .35
avgA   6.46   8.1   .36      medi   7.55   9.9   .31
eWin   6.66   8.5   .21      emin   7.70   9.5   .33
TmTj   6.76   8.8   .37      Crow   7.80   9.7   .33
perW   6.99   8.9   .17      24py   8.92  10.9   .25

13 games last night, and 7 were by 19+ points. All upper half entries were dinged (PER by .35) and all lower halfs were helped (medi by .27). The top-to-bottom spread shrank from 2.41 to 2.05

UPDATE Nov10

Code: Select all

w  Atl   w  Bos   w  Brk   w  Cha   w  Chi   w  Cle   w  Det   w  Ind
44  pW   62  em   41 b-r   39 b-r   35  WS   58 b-r   38 b-r   48  pW
41  WS   61  DQ   34  WS   34  pW   35  bW   52  dt   33  eW   47  mo
41  dt   61  mo   31  eW   33  em   34  eW   50  mo   33  pW   47  Cr
41  bW   60  dt   30  pW   31  Cr   34  pW   50  Cr   32  TT   46  dt
39  DQ   59  Cr   29  bW   31  eW   34 b-r   49  em   32  bW   44  em
39  eW   57  TT   29  DQ   30  DQ   31  TT   48  DQ   32  WS   44  TT
38  mo   57  WS   26  dt   30  WS   30  dt   48  TT   28  em   43  bW
37  TT   56  bW   26  mo   29  dt   29  Cr   46  WS   28  dt   43  WS
35  Cr   54 b-r   24  TT   28  bW   28  DQ   46  bW   27  Cr   42  DQ
34  em   52  pW   23  em   26  TT   27  em   45  eW   26  DQ   41  eW
33 b-r   52  eW   18  Cr   24  mo   25  mo   44  pW   26  mo   36 b-r
                                             
w  Mia   w  Mil   w  NYK   w  Orl   w  Phl   w  Tor   w  Was      
47  em   50  dt   58  em   49  Cr   55  mo   34 b-r   34  eW      
45  eW   49  DQ   53  Cr   48  mo   53  eW   32  pW   33  pW      
43  bW   48  em   50  TT   46  dt   52  pW   32  WS   32 b-r      
43  dt   48  Cr   50  dt   44  WS   51  TT   32  em   28  WS      
43  WS   45  pW   48  mo   43  DQ   47  DQ   32  bW   28  bW      
42  mo   45  TT   48 b-r   43  TT   47  dt   30  eW   19  em      
42  DQ   44  mo   44  WS   42  em   46  WS   30  dt   14  DQ      
42  TT   44  bW   43  DQ   41  bW   46  Cr   29  mo   15  TT      
41  pW   44  WS   43  bW   41 b-r   46  bW   29  DQ   18  mo      
40  Cr   43  eW   41  eW   39  eW   43  em   29  TT   19  Cr      
40 b-r   36 b-r   38  pW   34  pW   29 b-r   25  Cr   21  dt      
                                             
w  Dal   w  Den   w  GSW   w  Hou   w  LAC   w  LAL   w  Mem   w  Min
56  DQ   53  em   53 b-r   50 b-r   45 b-r   45  TT   49  Cr   57  em
53  pW   51  mo   52  Cr   47  eW   45  DQ   44  Cr   48  em   55  DQ
52  eW   51  dt   49  DQ   46  mo   44  WS   44  dt   45  DQ   53  eW
52  TT   51  eW   49  TT   45  bW   40  bW   43  DQ   43 b-r   52  mo
51  Cr   49  pW   48  mo   44  TT   40  dt   42  em   43  dt   51  Cr
50  bW   49  DQ   47  em   44  Cr   36  TT   40 b-r   43  eW   50  WS
47  WS   49  Cr   46  bW   44  WS   35  mo   39  mo   43  mo   50  bW
47  dt   48 b-r   45  dt   43  pW   35  pW   39  bW   42  pW   50  dt
47  mo   47  WS   44  WS   38  dt   33  Cr   38  WS   41  bW   48  TT
45 b-r   47  bW   41  eW   36  DQ   32  em   37  pW   41  TT   47 b-r
43  em   46  TT   40  pW   33  em   31  eW   36  eW   34  WS   46  pW
                                             
w  NOP   w  OKC   w  Phx   w  Por   w  Sac   w  SAS   w  Uta      
49  mo   62  mo   51  TT   31  eW   50  Cr   40 b-r   33  pW      
49  em   61  DQ   50  mo   31 b-r   49  bW   38  em   32  eW      
48  Cr   59 b-r   49  dt   28  pW   48  pW   37  pW   32  WS      
45  DQ   59  TT   48  Cr   27  bW   47  eW   36  eW   31  mo      
44  bW   58  em   48  pW   26  DQ   47  DQ   36  bW   29  DQ      
44  pW   55  WS   47  bW   26  Cr   47  TT   34  WS   29  dt      
44  TT   54  bW   47  WS   26  WS   47  dt   34  TT   29  bW      
44  WS   54  Cr   47 b-r   24  TT   46  WS   31  DQ   28  em      
44  eW   54  dt   46  em   24  mo   44  em   31  dt   27  TT      
42  dt   52  pW   45  eW   23  em   42  mo   31  mo   26  Cr      
26 b-r   49  eW   43  DQ   22  dt   42 b-r   29  Cr   25 b-r      

b-r is the current projection at b-r.com, from which our errors are measured.

[TeemoTeejay]

Well my projection is cooked with the Chet injury

[Mike G]

The co-leaders are more than 1.00 ahead of the other actual entries.

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .  avg err   rmse   r^2
WShr   5.34   7.1   .41      DQin   6.79   8.6   .41
bpmW   5.41   7.0   .43      perW   6.89   8.8   .19
24pr   5.66   7.7   .29      emin   6.92   9.2   .37
avgA   6.00   7.7   .41      Crow   7.01   9.0   .40
TmTj   6.43   8.3   .42      4141   7.26   9.0   
eWin   6.67   8.4   .24      medi   7.40   9.4   .36
dtka   6.72   8.0   .43      24py   8.34  10.5   .29