Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
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by Mike G Fri Mar 21, 2025 5:51 pm
Season at 85% and rookies projecting to 61 total eWins.
With at least 450 minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
4.0 Zach Edey Mem .609 15.3 14.1 1.3 .9 2.4 2.3 1.45
3.6 Alex Sarr Was .483 12.7 8.9 2.5 .9 2.0 2.1 1.03
3.4 Donovan Clingan Por .568 10.4 14.7 1.6 .9 2.3 3.2 1.36
3.3 Yves Missi NOP .557 10.0 10.7 1.4 .7 1.6 1.9 .78
3.2 Kel'el Ware Mia .600 14.4 11.0 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.23
3.2 Stephon Castle SAS .511 15.3 4.1 3.9 1.2 2.8 .3 .75
2.8 Kyle Filipowski Uta .605 13.5 9.8 2.8 1.1 2.3 .3 .97
2.4 Za. Risacher Atl .538 14.3 5.7 1.5 1.1 2.0 .8 .65
2.4 Jaylen Wells Mem .555 13.1 4.8 1.9 .8 1.3 .2 .54
2.2 Dalton Knecht LAL .585 15.1 5.0 1.3 .6 .9 .2 .66
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.8 Bub Carrington Was .511 8.6 4.8 4.0 .9 2.0 .3 .36
1.7 Tr. Da Silva Orl .524 10.3 6.0 2.2 .7 1.3 .4 .46
1.6 Quinten Post GSW .612 17.9 8.4 2.6 1.0 1.7 1.1 1.27
1.6 Isaiah Collier Uta .478 8.2 4.8 7.1 1.3 4.2 .3 .42
1.6 Kyshawn George Was .498 8.5 5.3 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.1 .38
1.5 Matas Buzelis Chi .535 11.8 5.9 1.3 .5 1.6 1.7 .52
1.4 Ryan Dunn Phx .513 10.4 6.2 1.3 1.0 .9 1.2 .53
1.3 Jared McCain Phl .583 18.1 3.4 3.0 .9 2.2 .0 .91
1.3 Ron Holland Det .537 11.3 5.7 1.6 1.4 1.8 .3 .50
1.2 Jonathan Mogbo Tor .499 7.8 8.0 2.5 1.5 1.7 .9 .52
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.0 Adem Bona Phl .682 10.3 8.8 .7 .8 1.9 2.3 .71
1.0 Justin Edwards Phl .558 10.7 4.5 1.7 1.3 1.3 .5 .46
.9 Karlo Matković NOP .618 10.5 8.6 1.4 .8 2.0 2.0 .65
.8 Ajay Mitchell OKC .597 13.1 3.7 2.9 1.3 1.7 .2 .60
.8 Ja'Kobe Walter Tor .502 10.6 5.0 1.7 1.3 1.6 .3 .38
.8 Jamal Shead Tor .508 9.1 2.5 5.5 1.2 2.8 .3 .28
.8 Jamison Battle Tor .597 12.6 5.0 1.4 .4 .8 .4 .45
.6 Oso Ighodaro Phx .603 7.3 7.2 1.9 .9 1.3 .9 .35
.6 Rob Dillingham Min .506 11.9 3.3 5.4 1.2 3.3 .1 .51
.5 Tidjane Salaün Cha .441 6.7 7.6 1.6 1.0 1.6 .4 .24
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.4 Reed Sheppard Hou .426 7.9 4.2 2.8 1.7 1.7 .9 .34
.4 KJ Simpson Cha .422 8.2 4.8 3.6 1.4 2.3 .3 .31
.3 Pelle Larsson Mia .534 8.7 3.5 2.0 1.0 .9 .2 .22
.3 Keaton Wallace Atl .526 8.7 2.8 3.6 1.6 2.2 .6 .26
-.3 Cody Williams Uta .434 5.2 4.1 1.6 .8 1.6 .5 -.14
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... _2025.html
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sun Apr 06, 2025 4:57 pm
With the season at 95%, some 105 rookies have appeared, with 1/3 of them getting >500 minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
4.2 Zach Edey Mem .610 14.8 14.1 1.4 .9 2.2 2.2 1.47
3.7 Kel'el Ware Mia .603 14.7 11.5 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.29
3.6 Yves Missi NOP .557 10.0 11.0 1.4 .6 1.5 1.9 .85
3.5 Stephon Castle SAS .508 14.8 4.7 4.3 1.2 2.9 .3 .79
3.5 Alex Sarr Was .480 12.5 8.4 2.4 .9 2.3 2.1 .93
3.4 Donovan Clingan Por .559 9.9 14.3 1.7 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.27
2.9 Kyle Filipowski Uta .583 12.9 10.1 2.6 1.1 2.4 .4 .96
2.6 Za. Risacher Atl .541 14.6 5.5 1.4 1.0 1.9 .7 .68
2.5 Jaylen Wells Mem .555 12.9 4.8 1.9 .8 1.3 .1 .56
2.3 Dalton Knecht LAL .587 15.6 4.9 1.4 .6 .8 .1 .73
2.1 Matas Buzelis Chi .554 13.1 6.1 1.4 .6 1.7 1.8 .68
e82 11-20 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 Bub Carrington Was .516 8.8 4.8 4.0 .8 2.1 .3 .38
1.7 Isaiah Collier Uta .486 8.3 4.7 6.9 1.3 4.1 .3 .43
1.7 Quinten Post GSW .593 16.6 7.9 2.5 .8 1.8 .9 1.16
1.6 Tristan Da Silva Orl .519 10.4 5.9 2.2 .7 1.2 .4 .49
1.6 Kyshawn George Was .496 8.5 5.4 2.6 1.4 2.0 1.0 .42
1.6 Ron Holland Det .551 12.1 6.0 1.8 1.4 2.0 .4 .61
1.5 Ryan Dunn Phx .511 10.3 6.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 .55
1.5 Adem Bona Phl .694 11.7 9.4 .9 1.0 2.1 2.6 .90
1.4 Jonathan Mogbo Tor .498 7.9 8.1 2.6 1.5 1.9 .9 .58
1.4 Karlo Matković NOP .635 12.3 8.9 1.6 .9 1.9 1.8 .89
e82 21-30 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.4 Justin Edwards Phl .555 11.6 4.7 1.8 1.4 1.5 .5 .54
1.3 Jamal Shead Tor .503 9.6 2.7 5.7 1.4 2.7 .3 .43
1.2 Ja'Kobe Walter Tor .516 11.6 5.0 2.0 1.4 1.6 .3 .52
1.1 Jared McCain Phl .583 17.8 3.4 2.9 .9 2.2 .0 .83
1.0 Jamison Battle Tor .592 12.8 5.2 1.4 .5 .9 .3 .52
.8 Tidjane Salaün Cha .459 7.3 7.9 1.6 .9 1.6 .4 .33
.8 Oso Ighodaro Phx .609 7.5 7.2 1.8 .9 1.2 .9 .39
.8 Ajay Mitchell OKC .597 13.1 3.9 2.9 1.4 1.7 .2 .63
.7 Pelle Larsson Mia .530 9.5 3.9 2.5 1.3 1.1 .3 .40
.6 Jaylen Clark Min .589 10.6 3.4 1.4 2.6 .5 .1 .57
e82 31-35 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.6 Reed Sheppard Hou .456 9.0 4.5 2.9 1.7 1.7 .9 .49
.6 Gabe Vincent LAL .540 9.5 2.1 1.9 1.2 1.0 .3 .19
.6 Rob Dillingham Min .503 11.5 3.2 5.5 1.4 3.3 .1 .50
.5 KJ Simpson Cha .440 8.3 4.6 3.7 1.3 2.3 .3 .33
-.4 Cody Williams Uta .415 5.0 3.9 1.6 .8 1.5 .5 -.16
Rookies should total ~ 66 eWins.
Crow
Posts: 10533 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Post
by Crow Sun Apr 06, 2025 9:06 pm
6 of top 7 are centers.
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sun Apr 06, 2025 9:43 pm
#1 rookie Zach Edey attempted a pair of 3-pointers late in his senior season at Purdue, making one.
Averaging almost one per game this year, he's hit them at the league avg %.
I notice it's the exception among this year's centers (and PF playing mostly C) to not have a long distance shot.
Code: Select all
2025 3fg 3fga 3fg%
Alex Sarr 100 315 .317
K Filipowski 72 201 .358
Quinten Post 71 173 .410
Kel'el Ware 34 105 .324
Br Carlson 20 51 .392
Zach Edey 18 50 .360
K Matkovic 17 53 .321
J Mogbo 16 58 .276
D Clingan 13 44 .295
. 361 1050 .344
2024 3fg 3fga 3fg%
Holmgren 129 349 .370
Wemby 128 394 .325
. 257 743 .346
That's as far as I got in quantifying a 'trend', in rookie C coming to the NBA ready to shoot the long ball.
Someone with a StatHead subscription could probably look into this some more.
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:17 am
Gathering the last 5 years' rookies who got at least 1.0 eWin in their first year, by (b-r.com) position totals:
Code: Select all
pos eW Min e484
SF 65.1 43598 .72
SG 50.7 37551 .65
PF 57.6 32350 .86
PG 41.6 31074 .65
C 73.9 27616 1.29
120 such players in 5 years = 25 per year avg.
Centers total the fewest minutes but are twice as good/effective/proficient as guards, at this beginning of career.
Top 10-11 at position. Bigs:
Code: Select all
eWin Center tm yr e484 eWin Power F tm yr e484
9.1 Wembanyama SAS 24 2.09 5.9 P Banchero Orl 23 1.17
8.6 C Holmgren OKC 24 1.73 5.9 S Barnes Tor 22 1.09
5.5 W Kessler Uta 23 1.57 5.8 E Mobley Cle 22 1.21
4.2 Zach Edey Mem 25 1.55 3.9 T J-Davis GSW 24 1.66
3.9 J Duren Det 23 1.14 3.7 Tari Eason Hou 23 1.01
3.8 I Stewart Det 21 1.27 3.6 J Smith Hou 23 .71
3.7 Kel'el Ware Mia 25 1.36 2.8 H Jones NOP 22 .57
3.6 Yves Missi NOP 25 .91 2.5 GG Jackson Mem 24 .99
3.5 Alex Sarr Was 25 .99 2.2 X Tillman Mem 21 .98
3.4 D Lively Dal 24 1.28 1.9 P Williams Chi 21 .46
3.4 D Clingan Por 25 1.33
Wings:
Code: Select all
eWin Small F tm yr e484 eWin Shooting G tm yr e484
4.8 F Wagner Orl 22 .95 4.6 J Williams OKC 23 .97
3.9 Am Thompson Hou 24 1.36 4.1 A Edwards Min 21 .86
3.8 B Miller Cha 24 .78 3.1 B Podziemski GSW 24 .76
3.5 K Murray Sac 23 .71 3.0 Jaden Ivey Det 23 .62
3.5 B Mathurin Ind 23 .75 2.9 Josh Giddey OKC 22 .83
3.4 Saddiq Bey Det 21 .86 2.9 Jalen Green Hou 22 .65
3.2 J Jaquez Mia 24 .73 2.5 J Wells Mem 25 .59
3.2 J'S Tate Hou 21 .75 2.3 C Duarte Ind 22 .72
2.9 J Kuminga GSW 22 1.18 2.3 D Bane Mem 21 .72
2.7 C Whitmore Hou 24 1.49 2.0 T Maxey Phl 21 1.06
2.7 Deni Avdija Was 22 .65
Point Guard:
Code: Select all
eWin Point G tm yr e484
4.1 C Cunningham Det 22 .94
3.9 LaMelo Ball Cha 21 1.30
3.5 S Castle SAS 25 .85
3.3 I Quickley NYK 21 1.28
2.7 B Hyland Den 22 1.01
2.7 T Haliburton Sac 21 .74
1.9 B Carrington Was 25 .41
1.7 I Collier Uta 25 .46
1.7 C Anthony Orl 21 .64
1.7 D Mitchell Sac 22 .39
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Tue Apr 15, 2025 12:57 am
Rookies totaled 71 eWins, split equally between east and west.
With >500 minutes:
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
4.3 Zach Edey Mem 66 21 .614 14.5 14.6 1.3 .9 2.3 2.2 1.46
3.8 Kel'el Ware Mia 64 22 .598 14.4 11.6 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.28
3.8 Stephon Castle SAS 81 27 .513 15.6 4.7 4.4 1.2 3.0 .4 .85
3.6 Donovan Clingan Por 67 20 .565 10.1 14.5 1.7 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.29
3.5 Alex Sarr Was 67 27 .477 12.6 8.4 2.6 .9 2.3 2.1 .93
3.5 Yves Missi NOP 73 27 .560 10.1 11.1 1.5 .7 1.6 1.9 .88
3.2 Kyle Filipowski Uta 72 21 .585 13.3 10.4 2.5 1.1 2.4 .5 1.01
2.7 Za. Risacher Atl 75 25 .552 15.1 5.5 1.5 1.0 1.9 .8 .73
2.3 Jaylen Wells Mem 79 26 .553 12.6 5.0 1.9 .8 1.3 .1 .52
2.2 Matas Buzelis Chi 80 19 .565 13.4 6.1 1.4 .6 1.7 1.8 .71
eWin per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.1 Dalton Knecht LAL 78 19 .589 14.9 5.0 1.3 .6 .9 .2 .66
2.0 Bub Carrington Was 82 30 .510 9.0 4.7 4.2 .8 2.1 .3 .38
1.8 Jonathan Mogbo Tor 63 20 .490 8.1 8.4 3.1 1.6 1.9 .9 .68
1.8 Adem Bona Phl 58 16 .696 12.5 9.4 .8 1.0 2.3 2.6 .90
1.8 Isaiah Collier Uta 71 26 .487 8.8 4.7 6.9 1.3 4.1 .3 .46
1.6 Tristan Da Silva Orl 74 22 .518 10.3 5.9 2.2 .8 1.2 .4 .47
1.6 Ryan Dunn Phx 74 19 .515 9.9 6.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 .55
1.5 Kyshawn George Was 68 27 .498 8.6 5.3 2.6 1.4 1.9 1.0 .41
1.5 Quinten Post GSW 42 16 .591 16.0 7.8 2.5 .8 1.7 .9 1.09
1.5 Ron Holland Det 81 16 .547 11.7 6.0 1.8 1.4 1.9 .4 .56
eWin per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.4 Karlo Matković NOP 42 19 .632 12.4 8.8 1.5 .9 1.9 1.8 .88
1.3 Jamal Shead Tor 75 20 .495 9.7 2.7 5.8 1.5 2.7 .2 .45
1.2 Justin Edwards Phl 44 26 .555 11.3 4.7 1.8 1.4 1.5 .5 .48
1.2 Ja'Kobe Walter Tor 52 21 .517 11.5 5.1 2.0 1.5 1.6 .3 .53
1.0 Jared McCain Phl 23 26 .583 18.0 3.4 2.9 .9 2.2 .0 .80
1.0 Jamison Battle Tor 59 18 .588 12.1 5.1 1.4 .6 .9 .3 .48
.8 Oso Ighodaro Phx 61 17 .601 7.3 7.0 1.9 .9 1.3 .9 .37
.7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 36 17 .581 12.9 3.6 3.1 1.3 1.6 .2 .60
.7 Tidjane Salaün Cha 60 21 .450 6.9 7.7 1.7 .8 1.6 .4 .26
.7 Reed Sheppard Hou 52 13 .464 9.1 4.3 3.2 1.7 1.9 .9 .46
eWin per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.7 Pelle Larsson Mia 55 14 .537 9.5 3.9 2.4 1.3 1.0 .3 .38
.6 KJ Simpson Cha 36 23 .433 8.2 4.6 3.9 1.5 2.4 .3 .33
.5 Jaylen Clark Min 40 13 .588 10.1 3.5 1.5 2.4 .5 .1 .49
.5 Rob Dillingham Min 49 11 .501 11.7 3.3 5.4 1.3 3.4 .1 .49
.5 Antonio Reeves NOP 44 15 .574 12.8 3.2 1.5 1.0 1.5 .2 .37
.4 Keaton Wallace Atl 31 16 .501 8.4 3.4 4.3 1.8 2.2 .6 .40
.3 Dillon Jones OKC 54 10 .459 6.4 6.9 3.0 .9 1.7 .2 .28
.1 AJ Johnson Was 22 27 .473 8.5 2.9 3.2 .7 1.9 .2 .10
-.4 Cody Williams Uta 50 21 .415 4.7 3.9 1.6 .8 1.5 .5 -.19
Crow
Posts: 10533 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Post
by Crow Sat Jun 28, 2025 7:09 pm
32 total rookies in last 5 years with +3 or better eWin as rookies.