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Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Fri May 27, 2011 4:24 pm
by Mike G
Chicago Bulls' summaries : 5 G vs Ind, 6 G vs Atl, 5 G vs Mia
Code: Select all
per36 opp eWins mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
Asik Ind .00 5 .333 2.1 10.9 .0 2.5 1.3 2.5 1.2 -.03
Asik Atl .01 13 .471 3.3 9.2 .5 5.6 .0 .9 2.5 .08
Asik Mia -.07 9 .385 3.0 3.9 .0 4.2 .7 2.1 .7 -.76
Asik tot -.06 9 .430 3.0 8.2 .3 4.6 .4 1.5 1.8 -.16
Bogans Ind .12 19 .675 11.9 3.8 1.3 1.2 1.6 .4 .8 .62
Bogans Atl .05 20 .615 10.8 2.3 1.9 3.5 1.3 .6 .0 .20
Bogans Mia -.03 18 .460 8.6 2.3 1.6 4.8 .8 1.6 .4 -.18
Bogans tot .14 19 .598 10.5 2.8 1.6 3.2 1.2 .9 .4 .22
Boozer Ind .31 30 .407 11.7 13.4 2.2 4.6 .7 3.4 .7 .98
Boozer Atl .61 31 .556 18.6 12.4 2.7 3.0 .4 1.8 .0 1.55
Boozer Mia .59 33 .483 16.5 12.8 1.8 3.3 .9 1.1 .9 1.69
Boozer tot 1.50 32 .498 15.9 12.8 2.3 3.6 .7 2.0 .5 1.42
per36 opp eWins mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
Brewer Ind .05 13 .500 6.8 6.3 2.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 .5 .40
Brewer Atl .05 15 .444 5.8 4.9 2.6 2.2 1.5 .7 1.1 .25
Brewer Mia .18 22 .632 12.8 4.2 1.2 1.8 1.8 .0 .6 .78
Brewer tot .28 16 .565 9.0 4.9 2.1 1.8 1.5 .5 .7 .51
Deng Ind .55 42 .528 17.8 5.8 3.4 1.9 1.2 1.7 .3 1.25
Deng Atl .50 44 .500 12.7 6.5 2.4 1.6 1.1 .4 .7 .90
Deng Mia .45 43 .524 16.3 6.8 1.7 2.9 1.5 2.2 .5 1.02
Deng tot 1.50 43 .518 15.4 6.4 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.4 .5 1.05
Gibson Ind .08 18 .476 7.6 9.2 .8 4.5 .4 2.2 2.2 .41
Gibson Atl .39 17 .662 20.5 9.4 1.5 3.0 1.0 1.6 3.5 1.85
Gibson Mia .12 18 .519 10.5 7.8 1.1 4.0 .4 1.1 1.8 .65
Gibson tot .59 18 .591 13.2 8.8 1.2 3.8 .6 1.7 2.5 1.01
per36 opp eWins mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
Korver Ind .25 21 .634 20.7 3.1 3.2 3.9 .6 1.9 .6 1.15
Korver Atl .06 16 .447 12.6 1.7 3.0 3.6 1.8 2.1 .0 .29
Korver Mia -.07 15 .422 7.0 2.9 .9 5.5 .4 1.7 .4 -.43
Korver tot .24 17 .549 14.2 2.6 2.5 4.2 1.0 1.9 .4 .42
Noah Ind .61 32 .508 15.0 13.2 2.3 5.1 1.2 1.6 2.9 1.82
Noah Atl .56 34 .538 10.3 13.3 3.2 3.9 .7 1.1 2.0 1.34
Noah Mia .37 34 .333 5.2 12.1 3.9 4.3 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.03
Noah tot 1.53 33 .491 10.1 12.9 3.1 4.4 1.1 1.3 2.3 1.38
Rose Ind .99 39 .511 29.1 4.6 6.0 2.4 2.4 3.6 1.1 2.44
Rose Atl 1.43 41 .520 32.1 4.6 10.0 1.0 .6 3.1 .6 2.79
Rose Mia .62 42 .430 20.6 4.0 6.1 2.3 .9 3.3 .2 1.41
Rose tot 3.04 41 .496 27.5 4.4 7.6 1.9 1.2 3.3 .6 2.24
per36 opp eWins mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
Watson Ind .06 10 .395 11.7 2.2 10.1 5.5 1.4 5.5 .0 .63
Watson Atl .08 9 .391 12.6 5.3 6.8 2.6 2.6 5.1 .0 .77
Watson Mia .11 8 .471 14.4 3.6 7.3 2.4 1.6 .8 .0 1.38
Watson tot .25 9 .417 12.8 3.8 8.1 3.6 1.9 4.1 .0 .89
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Fri May 27, 2011 5:52 pm
by Mike G
Oklahoma Thunder summaries vs Den (5 G), Mem (7 G), Dal (5 G)
Code: Select all
per36 opp eWins mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
Collison Den .06 20 .634 8.8 6.3 1.2 4.4 .3 .7 .7 .28
Collison Mem .24 25 .600 9.1 9.1 1.0 5.2 1.6 .8 1.2 .70
Collison Dal .32 27 .729 13.2 10.1 1.9 6.0 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.12
Collison tot .62 24 .661 10.4 8.7 1.3 5.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 .74
Cook Den .01 10 .467 7.2 8.0 .0 3.3 1.3 2.0 .0 .09
Cook Mem .01 13 .529 11.0 5.1 .5 2.6 .4 1.5 .0 .07
Cook Dal -.04 10 .778 9.0 1.4 .0 3.1 .0 .0 .0 -.39
Cook tot -.02 11 .576 9.5 4.9 .2 2.9 .5 1.2 .0 -.04
Durant Den 1.02 42 .611 30.9 4.9 3.3 2.9 .9 1.2 .9 2.32
Durant Mem 1.09 41 .556 23.6 8.4 1.6 2.4 .6 2.0 .9 1.92
Durant Dal .83 45 .541 22.9 8.5 3.2 2.6 1.0 3.1 1.1 1.77
Durant tot 2.94 43 .571 25.5 7.4 2.6 2.6 .8 2.1 1.0 1.99
per36 opp eWins mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
Harden Den .33 30 .565 12.9 6.7 4.0 3.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.07
Harden Mem .77 32 .626 18.2 5.5 5.6 2.7 1.4 2.1 1.1 1.74
Harden Dal .46 32 .649 17.5 7.1 3.5 3.2 1.3 1.7 .2 1.37
Harden tot 1.56 31 .620 16.5 6.3 4.5 3.1 1.4 1.8 .9 1.44
Ibaka Den .44 32 .490 11.1 13.0 .5 3.7 .5 2.1 5.6 1.34
Ibaka Mem .27 27 .520 11.0 7.8 .3 6.0 .2 1.2 3.8 .73
Ibaka Dal .13 29 .505 10.5 9.0 .0 4.6 .3 1.5 2.3 .42
Ibaka tot .84 29 .506 10.9 9.9 .3 4.9 .3 1.6 3.9 .84
Maynor Den .16 12 .500 17.5 3.5 6.5 1.1 1.1 2.3 .0 1.28
Maynor Mem .25 13 .471 12.4 4.0 9.5 2.6 2.3 3.0 .0 1.34
Maynor Dal -.03 14 .444 7.5 3.0 3.1 3.2 .5 1.8 .0 -.24
Maynor tot .37 13 .477 12.3 3.5 6.8 2.4 1.4 2.4 .0 .84
per36 opp eWins mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
Perkins Den .04 26 .443 6.7 9.7 .3 5.5 .3 2.0 .9 .14
Perkins Mem -.12 31 .460 4.2 8.2 1.1 4.7 .3 2.1 .9 -.28
Perkins Dal -.03 27 .568 5.6 7.5 1.8 3.0 .3 2.2 1.4 -.12
Perkins tot -.11 28 .486 5.3 8.4 1.1 4.4 .3 2.1 1.0 -.12
Sefolosha Den .11 21 .463 7.7 7.6 1.6 2.5 2.1 1.1 .0 .50
Sefolosha Mem -.06 20 .509 7.2 4.7 1.8 1.9 .8 2.8 .6 -.23
Sefolosha Dal .14 20 .684 9.6 6.4 1.0 3.6 2.5 .7 1.1 .68
Sefolosha tot .19 20 .557 8.1 6.1 1.5 2.6 1.7 1.6 .5 .26
Westbrook Den .77 36 .494 25.4 6.2 7.4 3.4 .8 4.1 .4 2.04
Westbrook Mem 1.23 37 .503 24.0 5.4 9.7 3.3 1.7 4.7 .4 2.39
Westbrook Dal .45 39 .466 20.6 5.0 4.5 2.8 1.5 4.6 .2 1.10
Westbrook tot 2.45 37 .490 23.3 5.5 7.5 3.2 1.4 4.5 .3 1.90
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2011 12:02 pm
by Mike G
After 3 games of the Finals, LeBron, Wade, and Nowitzki have 3 of the top 63 Win Shares totals in NBA/ABA playoff history.
http://bkref.com/tiny/mwRea
LeBron's 4.0 WS ranks #28 all-time. In 18 games, he's ahead of what he got in 20 playoff games in 2007.
The 3 superstars will play another 2 to 4 games, and at their current rate of playoff WS per minute, they may end the postseason ranked thus:
Code: Select all
WS/48 Win Shares thru3 goes5 rk goes6 rk goes7 rk
.241 LeBron 3.97 4.41 15 4.63 12 4.85 3
.234 Dirk 3.45 3.84 31 4.03 25 4.22 20
.226 Wade 3.36 3.73 37 3.92 29 4.10 23
Their WS/48 rates rank #26-36, among those 63 with at least 3.35 Win Shares in a postseason.
One of the 3 already holds the gold standard for dominance in a playoff run.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2009.html
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:57 pm
by Mike G
Update after 4 games
Code: Select all
WS/48 thru 4G WS goes6 rk goes7 rk
.226 LeBron 3.94 4.35 16 4.56 14
.235 Wade 3.68 4.07 24 4.26 20
.225 Dirk 3.50 3.87 30 4.05 24
Things changed quickly, as LeBron bottomed out (by his standards), and Dirk also had a bad outing.
In the Finals, Wade is looking like Jordan, and LeBron has a Pippenesque line.
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 10:09 pm
by Mike G
Wow. Just noticed, LeBron actually lost .03 WS in game 4.
Dirk gained only .05, Wade .23 .
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:59 am
by Mike G
For the whole 20 playoff games, through 5 games of the Finals:
Code: Select all
Min WS/48 Win Shares thru5 goes6 rk goes7 rk
881 .209 LeBron 3.84 4.03 26 4.22 21
787 .231 Wade 3.79 3.98 28 4.17 22
787 .225 Nowitzki 3.69 3.87 30 4.06 24
Only one prior instance of a Finals with 3 players reaching 4 playoff Win Shares and at least .200 WS/48 --
http://bkref.com/tiny/O4Og3
Dwight, Kobe, and Gasol went 23 playoff games to get there.
Only a few times when 2 Finalists reached 4.0 and .200: Dirk and Wade in '06; Billups and Ginobili '05; Jordan and Barkley '93.
With .200 WS/48 and at least
3.0 WS, add Duncan and LeBron '07; Billups and Shaq '04; Kobe and Shaq '01
Duncan and Robinson '99; Jordan and Stockton '97; Jordan and Hornacek '96; Jordan and Porter '92
- Bird, Olajuwon, and McHale in '86; Bird and Kareem '84
Kareem and Havlicek '74; Issel and Gilmore '73 (ABA); Wilt and Frazier '72; Issel and Beaty '71 (ABA)
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:12 pm
by Mike G
Final 2011 playoff eWins leaders
Code: Select all
eWins eW/G per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
4.16 .198 Dirk Nowitzki Dal 21 39 .607 31.6 8.6 2.8 2.0 .5 2.9 .6 2.42
4.12 .196 Dwyane Wade Mia 21 39 .563 27.6 7.5 5.0 2.4 1.5 2.9 1.2 2.40
4.06 .193 Lebron James Mia 21 44 .552 22.6 7.8 6.1 2.2 1.4 2.6 1.0 2.11
3.04 .190 Derrick Rose Chi 16 41 .496 27.5 4.4 7.6 1.9 1.2 3.3 .6 2.24
2.94 .173 Kevin Durant Okl 17 43 .571 25.5 7.4 2.6 2.6 .8 2.1 1.0 1.99
2.45 .144 Russell Westbrook Okl 17 37 .490 23.3 5.5 7.5 3.2 1.4 4.5 .3 1.90
2.34 .111 Chris Bosh Mia 21 40 .556 19.1 8.9 1.3 2.1 .7 1.8 .8 1.34
1.99 .153 Zach Randolph Mem 13 40 .523 20.7 10.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.9 .7 1.91
1.97 .094 Jason Terry Dal 21 33 .615 22.7 2.3 4.1 2.2 1.3 1.6 .2 1.39
1.96 .093 Jason Kidd Dal 21 35 .570 11.0 5.4 9.3 1.8 2.0 2.8 .5 1.27
eWins eW/G per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
1.65 .274 Dwight Howard Orl 6 43 .648 33.2 14.9 .4 3.6 .6 4.7 1.6 3.06
1.56 .092 James Harden Okl 17 31 .620 16.5 6.3 4.5 3.1 1.4 1.8 .9 1.44
1.54 .118 Marc Gasol Mem 13 40 .550 14.2 10.8 2.2 3.1 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.48
1.53 .096 Joakim Noah Chi 16 33 .491 10.1 12.9 3.1 4.4 1.1 1.3 2.3 1.38
1.50 .094 Carlos Boozer Chi 16 32 .498 15.9 12.8 2.3 3.6 .7 2.0 .5 1.42
1.50 .094 Luol Deng Chi 16 43 .518 15.4 6.4 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.4 .5 1.05
1.43 .068 Shawn Marion Dal 21 33 .506 13.4 8.1 3.1 2.8 1.1 1.9 1.0 .99
1.26 .105 Josh Smith Atl 12 37 .443 15.2 9.1 3.0 3.3 1.1 2.2 1.8 1.38
1.21 .202 Chris Paul NO 6 42 .650 24.1 6.5 10.1 1.6 1.6 3.2 .0 2.33
1.16 .055 Tyson Chandler Dal 21 32 .613 10.3 11.9 .5 4.2 .7 .8 1.0 .82
eWins eW/G per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
1.15 .115 Kobe Bryant LA 10 35 .527 25.7 4.2 3.9 2.4 1.7 3.2 .3 1.56
1.08 .120 Kevin Garnett Bos 9 36 .472 15.2 12.1 3.0 3.0 1.9 2.1 1.0 1.59
1.05 .050 Jose Barea Dal 21 19 .514 17.4 3.9 8.1 2.5 .5 2.1 .0 1.30
1.05 .087 Joe Johnson Atl 12 41 .521 18.3 4.3 3.0 1.4 1.0 2.3 .1 1.01
1.04 .104 Andrew Bynum LA 10 32 .584 19.1 13.2 1.0 3.8 .6 2.3 1.6 1.56
1.02 .079 Mike Conley Mem 13 39 .470 13.2 3.8 6.8 2.8 1.0 2.2 .2 1.00
1.02 .113 Rajon Rondo Bos 9 38 .498 14.4 5.6 10.4 1.7 1.1 3.5 .0 1.42
1.01 .112 Paul Pierce Bos 9 38 .567 22.3 5.3 3.0 3.2 1.3 2.6 .4 1.41
.98 .081 Al Horford Atl 12 39 .454 10.5 9.6 3.5 2.6 .4 1.3 1.0 1.00
.94 .104 Ray Allen Bos 9 40 .696 20.9 3.7 2.4 2.1 1.1 1.0 .1 1.24
eWins eW/G per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.90 .090 Pau Gasol LA 10 36 .487 13.5 9.4 4.3 3.4 .4 1.7 1.7 1.21
.84 .049 Serge Ibaka Okl 17 29 .506 10.9 9.9 .3 4.9 .3 1.6 3.9 .84
.80 .067 Jamal Crawford Atl 12 30 .499 19.5 1.6 2.9 1.6 .9 1.5 .4 1.07
.72 .145 Manu Ginobili SA 5 29 .569 25.3 4.5 4.5 2.7 2.7 3.6 .6 1.99
.67 .168 Carmelo Anthony NY 4 39 .495 24.4 10.0 4.1 3.7 1.2 3.0 .7 2.06
.65 .108 Lamarcus Aldridge Por 6 43 .492 16.3 6.9 1.1 2.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.20
.64 .106 Gerald Wallace Por 6 38 .548 15.9 9.8 2.6 3.1 1.3 2.4 .5 1.36
.63 .105 Tony Parker SA 6 37 .520 20.8 2.8 5.4 1.7 1.3 3.3 .3 1.36
.62 .104 Jameer Nelson Orl 6 36 .444 13.9 4.8 6.0 2.4 2.1 1.4 .0 1.39
.62 .125 Danny Granger Ind 5 37 .551 22.5 5.5 3.1 2.4 1.2 1.4 .2 1.62
.62 .036 Nick Collison Okl 17 24 .661 10.4 8.7 1.3 5.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 .74
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Sat Jun 18, 2011 11:28 am
by Mike G
Playoff Team over and underachievers, based on their season SRS, their avg opponent SRS, and their avg margin of victory (MOV).
The 'over' column is 'extra' points created, relative to their opposition: G*(MOV-expMOV)
Code: Select all
over tm G SRS OpSRS expMOV MOV 1st srs 2nd srs 3rd srs 4th srs
124 Dal 21 4.4 4.6 -.2 5.7 Por 1.9 LAL 6.0 Okl 3.8 Mia 6.8
+34 Okl 17 3.8 3.9 -.1 1.9 Den 4.8 Mem 2.6 Dal 4.4
+29 Atl 12 -1.1 5.7 -6.8 -4.4 Orl 4.9 Chi 6.5
+21 Mem 13 2.6 4.8 -2.3 -0.7 SAS 5.9 Okl 3.8
+ 3 Mia 21 6.8 4.2 2.6 2.7 Phl 1.0 Bos 4.8 Chi 6.5 Dal 4.4
+ 3 Ind 5 -1.4 6.5 -7.9 -7.4 Chi 6.5
+ 2 Bos 9 4.8 3.6 1.2 1.4 NYK .5 Mia 6.8
- 8 Phl 5 1.0 6.8 -5.8 -7.4 Mia 6.8
over tm G SRS OpSRS expMOV MOV 1st srs 2nd srs 3rd srs 4th srs
-14 Chi 16 6.5 1.4 5.1 4.2 Ind -1.4 Atl -1.1 Mia 6.8
-15 NOH 6 1.3 6.0 -4.7 -7.2 LAL 6.0
-15 Por 6 1.9 4.4 -2.6 -5.1 Dal 4.4
-17 NYK 4 .5 4.8 -4.4 -8.5 Bos 4.8
-25 Orl 6 4.9 -1.1 6.0 1.9 Atl -1.1
-29 Den 5 4.8 3.8 1.0 -4.8 Okl 3.8
-39 SAS 6 5.9 2.6 3.3 -3.2 Mem 2.6
-45 LAL 10 6.0 2.8 3.2 -1.3 NOH 1.3 Dal 4.4
One can deduce each series from this table. Take the Bulls. The Pacers were +3, so the Bulls were -3 in round 1.
The Hawks wind up at +29, after gaining 25 vs the Magic (who were -25). Thus the Bulls were -4 vs the Hawks.
To reach -14, Chicago then must have been -7 vs Miami.
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 1:46 pm
by Mike G
Here's my best (so far) synopsis of players who overachieved in these playoffs, relative to their regular seasons' rates.
Best fit (for 160 players) was achieved by subtracting .2124 from their RS eW/484 rates to get 'expected' playoff eW/480.
Anyone whose PO eW/480 is more than .2124 reduced from his RS rate is judged to have 'underachieved' in playoffs.
Code: Select all
overachievers in playoffs: eWins beyond expectations, rates Regular Season per36
eW+ per36 rates tm G Eff% Sco Reb Ast e480 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.83 Harden,James Okl 17 .620 16.5 6.3 4.5 1.44 .583 16.4 4.2 2.8 .91
.76 Terry,Jason Dal 21 .615 22.7 2.3 4.1 1.39 .540 18.5 2.2 4.7 1.06
.63 Collison,Nick Okl 17 .661 10.4 8.7 1.3 .74 .591 7.6 7.2 1.6 .22
.59 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 21 .607 31.6 8.6 2.8 2.42 .600 28.9 8.2 3.0 2.28
.49 Anthony,Joel Mia 21 .528 3.4 7.1 .9 .01 .565 3.9 6.6 .6 -.19
.48 Kidd,Jason Dal 21 .570 11.0 5.4 9.3 1.27 .496 9.1 5.3 9.8 1.17
.45 Barea,Jose Dal 21 .514 17.4 3.9 8.1 1.30 .529 15.7 3.3 6.5 .96
.45 Gasol,Marc Mem 13 .550 14.2 10.8 2.2 1.48 .567 15.3 9.2 2.9 1.27
.42 Crawford,Jamal Atl 12 .499 19.5 1.6 2.9 1.07 .536 16.8 2.1 3.3 .73
.41 Vasquez,Greivis Mem 13 .593 15.9 4.7 6.5 1.39 .488 8.8 2.9 5.4 .22
eW+ playoff per36 tm G Eff% Sco Reb Ast e480 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.38 Howard,Dwight Orl 6 .648 33.2 14.9 .4 3.06 .594 26.7 15.4 1.5 2.57
.32 Chalmers,Mario Mia 21 .599 13.4 3.1 3.7 .57 .533 10.7 3.5 4.4 .49
.31 Artest,Ron LA 10 .534 13.2 6.4 2.9 .88 .480 11.1 4.4 2.9 .58
.29 Fisher,Derek LA 10 .538 10.2 3.6 4.4 .56 .481 9.4 2.7 4.0 .34
.28 Hinrich,Kirk Atl 6 .581 15.2 3.1 3.5 1.02 .527 12.0 3.2 4.1 .47
.27 Maynor,Eric Okl 17 .477 12.3 3.5 6.8 .84 .480 8.5 3.3 6.5 .46
.26 Paul,Chris NO 6 .650 24.1 6.5 10.1 2.33 .566 18.7 4.8 10.0 2.04
.26 Wade,Dwyane Mia 21 .563 27.6 7.5 5.0 2.40 .568 29.0 7.1 5.2 2.46
.22 Teague,Jeff Atl 6 .582 16.1 2.9 4.0 .93 .512 12.3 3.6 4.4 .68
.21 Ariza,Trevor NO 6 .484 13.4 6.6 3.4 .96 .480 12.2 6.6 2.3 .75
.21 O'Neal,Jermaine Bos 9 .547 10.3 7.9 1.7 .74 .494 11.2 7.7 1.0 .44
DWade's eWins/480 dropped the slightest bit in the playoffs, but it was less than the average drop of .21
eW+ sum to zero for 160 players.
Here are "underachievers":
Code: Select all
eW+ playoff per36 tm G Eff% Sco Reb Ast e480 RS: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.90 James,Lebron Mia 21 .552 22.6 7.8 6.1 2.11 .581 29.4 7.9 7.6 2.79
-.67 Chandler,Tyson Dal 21 .613 10.3 11.9 .5 .82 .674 17.0 13.6 .6 1.50
-.55 Horford,Al Atl 12 .454 10.5 9.6 3.5 1.00 .580 18.4 10.8 3.6 1.77
-.49 Boozer,Carlos Chi 16 .498 15.9 12.8 2.3 1.42 .534 23.5 12.8 3.2 2.10
-.48 Bryant,Kobe LA 10 .527 25.7 4.2 3.9 1.56 .538 30.5 6.0 5.5 2.43
-.47 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 17 .486 5.3 8.4 1.1 -.12 .500 7.6 13.0 1.5 .56
-.46 Gasol,Pau LA 10 .487 13.5 9.4 4.3 1.21 .577 21.5 10.8 3.6 2.04
-.36 Anderson,Ryan Orl 6 .424 4.9 6.9 .8 .03 .585 18.8 9.3 1.3 1.41
-.32 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 19 .593 12.8 3.5 .8 .29 .560 16.8 5.0 1.7 .94
-.31 Okafor,Emeka NO 6 .603 9.8 7.2 .0 .19 .570 14.1 12.8 .7 1.20
eW+ playoff per36 tm G Eff% Sco Reb Ast e480 RS: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.29 Allen,Tony Mem 13 .474 11.6 4.2 2.4 .48 .551 16.2 5.0 2.4 1.08
-.28 Matthews,Wesley Por 6 .586 14.4 1.4 1.0 .20 .572 19.8 3.9 2.2 1.08
-.26 Stoudemire,Amare NY 4 .433 14.7 8.9 1.8 .77 .553 25.3 8.4 2.8 1.93
-.26 Davis,Glen Bos 9 .428 7.2 6.1 1.6 -.01 .490 14.6 6.9 1.4 .84
-.25 Bibby,Mike Mia 20 .393 5.7 3.7 2.9 -.12 .597 11.5 3.3 3.8 .37
-.23 Bosh,Chris Mia 21 .556 19.1 8.9 1.3 1.34 .557 21.4 9.4 2.2 1.69
-.23 Odom,Lamar LA 10 .518 15.3 9.3 2.8 1.02 .581 18.1 10.1 3.6 1.61
-.23 Belinelli,Marco NO 6 .446 10.3 1.2 1.0 -.07 .555 18.0 3.3 1.8 .77
-.22 Duncan,Tim SA 6 .494 13.1 11.7 3.0 1.37 .529 18.8 12.8 3.8 2.07
-.21 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 6 .492 16.3 6.9 1.1 1.20 .540 22.4 9.3 2.0 1.81
-.21 Batum,Nicolas Por 6 .500 10.3 2.5 1.8 .10 .557 16.3 6.0 1.9 .99
Even more than for the regular season, such a list makes me uncomfortable. A first round underachiever -- Duncan, LaMarcus, Ryan Anderson -- may result in a very short postseason for his team. LeBron was pretty great for 3 rounds.
Tyson Chandler a disappointment? Well, his PER dropped from 18.4 to 15.2 (RS to PO) and his WS/48 from .218 to .188.
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 1:28 pm
by Mike G
While eWins per 48 minutes, season to playoffs, averaged a decline of .0212, the avg decline in Win Shares was .0316 .
Adding this .0316 to everyone's playoff WS/48, a playoff overachievement is calculated:
WS+ = (PO + .0316 - RS)*Min/48
where PO and RS are WS/48 for playoff and regular season.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... stats.html
Weighted by minutes, the overs and unders sum to zero.
Hoping to fit both over- and under-achievers in one view. If anyone's screen is too narrow, I can break them up.
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playoff overachievers Reg Sea Playoffs - - - playoff underachievers Reg Sea Playoffs - - -
WS+ Player Tm WS/48 Min WS/48 WS ws+ Player Tm WS/48 Min WS/48 WS
1.58 Jason Terry DAL .100 684 .179 2.55 -.75 Al Horford ATL .179 468 .070 .68
.90 Kevin Durant OKC .189 722 .217 3.26 -.70 Mike Bibby MIA .084 415 -.029 -.25
.82 Nick Collison OKC .113 413 .177 1.52 -.66 Tony Allen MEM .152 350 .030 .22
.77 James Harden OKC .156 537 .193 2.16 -.64 Pau Gasol LAL .232 358 .115 .86
.68 Ray Allen BOS .166 361 .225 1.69 -.58 R Westbrook OKC .159 638 .084 1.12
.57 Jason Kidd DAL .116 744 .121 1.88 -.44 M Belinelli NOH .084 173 -.070 -.25
.56 Mario Chalmers MIA .089 511 .110 1.17 -.42 Jeff Green BOS .194 173 .046 .17
.51 Dwyane Wade MIA .218 828 .216 3.73 -.41 Udonis Haslem MIA .130 290 .030 .18
.49 Dirk Nowitzki DAL .213 826 .210 3.61 -.41 Josh Smith ATL .116 438 .040 .37
.47 Luol Deng CHI .149 687 .150 2.15 -.40 Lamar Odom LAL .184 286 .086 .51
.46 Gr Vasquez MEM .030 142 .154 .46 -.39 Hedo Turkoglu ORL .143 209 .022 .10
.42 Marc Gasol MEM .146 519 .153 1.65 -.39 T Hansbrough IND .118 164 -.027 -.09
.41 Kirk Hinrich ATL .050 173 .132 .48 -.38 Tim Duncan SAS .171 212 .053 .23
.40 Jeff Teague ATL .083 238 .132 .65 -.37 A Stoudemire NYK .134 134 -.031 -.09
.38 Ron Artest LAL .087 287 .119 .71 -.36 Kobe Bryant LAL .179 354 .099 .73
playoff overachievers Reg Sea Playoffs - - - playoff underachievers Reg Sea Playoffs - - -
WS+ Player Tm WS/48 Min WS/48 WS ws+ Player Tm WS/48 Min WS/48 WS
.37 Derek Fisher LAL .078 325 .101 .68 -.35 Emeka Okafor NOH .136 188 .016 .06
.36 J O'Neal BOS .065 197 .120 .49 -.34 Landry Fields NYK .100 71 -.163 -.24
.31 Jose Barea DAL .093 390 .100 .81 -.34 Thaddeus Young PHI .139 127 -.020 -.05
.31 Danny Granger IND .120 183 .170 .65 -.33 LaM Aldridge POR .166 258 .073 .39
.31 O.J. Mayo MEM .062 362 .071 .54 -.32 J.J. Redick ORL .143 120 -.018 -.05
.30 Jamal Crawford ATL .071 358 .079 .59 -.32 Jarrett Jack NOH .082 111 -.088 -.20
.26 Q Richardson ORL .068 98 .165 .34 -.31 Nazr Mohammed OKC .139 148 .006 .02
.25 Ronnie Brewer CHI .147 260 .162 .88 -.31 Nicolas Batum POR .126 151 -.003 -.01
.25 Taj Gibson CHI .143 284 .153 .91 -.30 Paul Pierce BOS .201 343 .128 .91
Many of the same names as in the eWins+ lists, but --
LeBron checks in at -.26 WS; dropping from .244 to .199 ws/48, about 150% of avg dropoff.
I had Durant dropping slightly from .213 to .199 in eW/48 -- just +.11 eW above expectation. This might be explained by my summing his eWins from each series, rather than from his whole playoffs. A huge topic in itself.
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:42 pm
by Mike G
Small error: Avg WS/48 was reduced by .0331 in these playoffs. The ranking order in previous post should not change much.
Other advanced stat averages for playoff teams, season and playoffs:
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2011 PER TS% eFG% ORb% DRb% TRb%
RS 15.4 .537 .497 5.03 14.55 9.88
PO 14.2 .514 .478 4.72 13.95 9.31
diff -1.24 -.022 -.019 -.31 -.60 -.57
2011 Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% Usg% ORtg DRtg
RS 14.67 1.58 1.49 12.58 19.45 107.1 102.1
PO 14.27 1.62 1.57 11.52 19.93 103.7 103.8
diff -.40 +.04 +.08 -1.06 +.48 -3.4 +1.7
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2011 11:47 am
by Mike G
Player ORtg dropped an avg of 3.4 while DRtg rose by an avg 1.7 .
It seems playoff teams were more defensively superior than they were offensively, relative to league avg.
Also, defense is where one can improve just by 'playing harder', not always true on offense.
Odd that player TO% goes down while Stl% is slightly up.
If TS% is depressed more than eFG% is, did playoff teams shoot fewer FT, or shoot them worse?
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Thu Jun 30, 2011 5:49 pm
by Crow
"Player ORtg dropped an avg of 3.4 while DRtg rose by an avg 1.7."
I get different net change numbers on team level than this data at player level when I use the regular season data of just the playoff teams weighted by their number of playoff games played. I assume your regular season figures in the above table were all teams equally weighted, so these are different comparisons. Correct?
Regular season Offensive Rating of playoff teams fell from 109.1 to 106.0 or -3.1 (compared to -3.4 at player level). Defensive Rating went from 104.6 to 106.0 or a -1.4 weakening (compared to +1.7 at player level). I calculated this by comparing data from B-R for team playoff averages to the average for playoff game weighted regular season data for playoff teams.
[I also don't think player Offensive and Defensive Ratings exactly match with the comparable team ratings in the current time period. Maybe they would have been closer when the formulas were created (the game stats may have changed proportions a bit since then and with static stat weights everything may no longer balance perfectly). Maybe they would have been even closer if all possessions were included and treated the same in both; but for certain possessions, I don't think they are based on a brief look at the issue previously. I believe there is a difference is how pace is calculated then used which may explain much of the variance of these numbers at individual and team levels.]
Perhaps the change in strength of schedule is also affecting the numbers? The average regular season SOS for playoff teams was -0.2. The playoff game weighted average regular season SRS for playoff teams was +3.9.
Using my team level data, the average team performance decline by 3.1 on offense and 1.4 on defense compared to regular season data or 4.5 total. They faced teams with an SRS of 3.9 better in the playoffs than regular season and the regular season records came from average schedules against slightly weaker (-0.2) than league average SOS. Adjusting for the weaker than neutral SOS, the amount of increased contextual difficulty from a neutral SOS regular season basis to the playoffs would be 3.7. Somewhere another 0.8 weakening on team net rating per 100 possessions occurred, presumably on the court. But is that the only additional weakening of performance beyond that caused by or at least expected by a tougher playoff context compared to regular season? That is what I come up with.
"If TS% is depressed more than eFG% is, did playoff teams shoot fewer FT, or shoot them worse?"
No, based on B-R data, playoff team average FTM. FTA, FT% and FT / FGA all increased in the playoffs from regular season.
(I first looked at regular season average for all teams compared to the playoff averages and they all increased; but then I weighted the regular season by the teams actually in the playoffs and for the amount of games they played. The story is still the same though the amount of the increases is lower since these playoff teams were higher on all these stats than the regular season averages.)
It appears that the decline in eFG% and TS% for playoff teams compared to the playoff game weighted average of their regular season data is fueled entirely by a decline in FG%, not free throw related activity. It appears to be a proportionate decline on 2 pt and 3 pt attempts. 3 percentage point decline on 2 pt shots and effectively a 3 percentage point decline on 3 pt shots.
[There is more of an increase in 3 pt attempts as a % of total FGAs if one looks at regular season average for all teams vs average for just playoff teams (about 1 percentage point) but for a fair comparison of just playoff teams against their playoff game weighted regular season data the increase is very tiny and not anywhere near as impactful as the much larger changes in FG%s.]
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:54 am
by Mike G
Crow wrote:"Player ORtg dropped an avg of 3.4 while DRtg rose by an avg 1.7."
... I assume your regular season figures in the above table were all teams equally weighted, so these are different comparisons. Correct?
Regular season Offensive Rating of playoff teams fell from 109.1 to 106.0 or -3.1 (compared to -3.4 at player level). Defensive Rating went from 104.6 to 106.0 or a -1.4 weakening (compared to +1.7 at player level)....
I just copied 'advanced stats' from b-r.com and weighted them by minutes. Maybe it's just that some teams averaged more minutes per game?
In any case, I got an average player DRtg 'weakening' of 1.66 -- from 102.96 RS to 104.62 PO.
That 102.96 is their RS DRtg weighted by their PO minutes.
ORtg weighted by PO minutes was 104.68, down from 108.1 in the RS. A few omitted players with few minutes would seem to account for the difference.
Team over/unders, by SRS comparison (several posts up), led by Dallas' +124 points vs the competition, 16 teams total +8.1 .
Over 81 playoff games, that's 0.1 seeming extra points per game. Possibly just rounding errors.
Re: 2011 Playoff summaries
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2011 8:21 pm
by Mike G
In about half of all playoff series this year, the 2 best players were on the winning team.
Some are arguable, and I've included both eWins and eWins per 480 minutes.
Also the best eW and e480 for the losing team.
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1st Round
eWins Dal - Por tm e480
1.31 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 2.72
.77 Kidd,Jason Dal 1.79
.65 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 1.20
.64 Wallace,Gerald Por 1.36
eWins Okl - Den tm e480
1.02 Durant,Kevin Okl 2.32
.77 Westbrook,Russel Okl 2.04
.44 Hilario,Nene Den 1.31
.44 Ibaka,Serge Okl 1.34
eWins Chi - Ind tm e480
.99 Rose,Derrick Chi 2.44
.62 Granger,Danny Ind 1.62
.61 Noah,Joakim Chi 1.82
eWins Mia - Phl tm e480
1.19 James,Lebron Mia 2.70
1.06 Wade,Dwyane Mia 2.68
.64 Bosh,Chris Mia 1.54
.43 Holiday,Jrue Phl 1.12
Round 2
eWins Mia - Bos tm e480
1.20 Wade,Dwyane Mia 2.82
1.02 James,Lebron Mia 2.20
.53 Garnett,Kevin Bos 1.33
.52 Pierce,Paul Bos 1.32
eWins Chi - Atl tm e480
1.43 Rose,Derrick Chi 2.79
.68 Smith,Josh Atl 1.42
.61 Boozer,Carlos Chi 1.55
eWins Okl - Mem tm e480
1.23 Westbrook,Russel Okl 2.26
1.09 Durant,Kevin Okl 1.81
.94 Randolph,Zach Mem 1.56
.85 Gasol,Marc Mem 1.49
.77 Harden,James Okl 1.64
eWins Dal - LA tm e480
.77 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 2.45
.60 Terry,Jason Dal 2.34
.38 Barea,Jose Dal 2.52
.31 Bryant,Kobe LA 1.01
.28 Kidd,Jason Dal 1.05
Conference Finals
eWins Mia - Chi tm e480
1.22 James,Lebron Mia 2.59
.84 Bosh,Chris Mia 1.95
.62 Rose,Derrick Chi 1.41
.59 Boozer,Carlos Chi 1.69