The immediate future of the Golden State Warriors

[wilq]

You can't really emulate luck by studying the behavior of lucky people.

But you can get smarter by studying the behavior of smart people, right?
And even though it's hard to argue with "Thunder had some luck" to me their body of work suggests that way more skill than luck was involved. BTW, IMHO the single biggest problem with tanking strategy is this:
people who [at least partially] created current mess will also be responsible for the rebuilding effort.
Why in the hell would you trust them to do it well?

[Mike G]

But you can get smarter by studying the behavior of smart people, right?
And even though it's hard to argue with "Thunder had some luck" to me their body of work suggests that way more skill than luck was involved. ..

The biggest piece of luck seems to be getting Durant rather than Oden (or Yi Jianlian, ...)
Even if they'd have taken Durant at #1, they probably weren't so smart they knew Oden would fall apart; nor is it skillful to gain a 1 or 2 pick.

Meanwhile, we only know that Westbrook, Ibaka, and Harden were "smart" picks in retrospect. Maybe a team could hire away some part of the braintrust behind these decisions; and then we might have a better guess if it was more skill or more luck.
How else could you study their behavior and gain from it?

Durant looks like one of the great scorers of all time, so far. The all-time top 5 in points (RS) thru age 23:

Code: Select all

thru 23   G    Pts   Pts/36  TS%  TReb%  Ast%   WS/48
LeBron   391  10689   23.9  .548   9.7   31.9   .193
Durant   380   9978   24.8  .582   9.9   13.9   .167
Carmelo  379   9264   24.1  .545   9.3   15.2   .124
McGrady  280   8542   22.4  .531  11.1   23.2   .181 
Kobe     267   8197   22.0  .547   7.9   20.9   .171

http://bkref.com/tiny/bSlqx
Durant tops these others in both Pts/36 and in TS% (by a long shot).
Did anyone really suppose he'd be this good? Is he likely to have weaknesses like some of the others have shown?

[wilq]

The biggest piece of luck seems to be getting Durant [...] nor is it skillful to gain a 1 or 2 pick.

I agree...

Meanwhile, we only know that Westbrook, Ibaka, and Harden were "smart" picks in retrospect. Maybe a team could hire away some part of the braintrust behind these decisions; and then we might have a better guess if it was more skill or more luck.

... but I'm surprised here: in your opinion there's a possibility all three were mostly about luck?
In other words, is draft a crapshoot or is it mostly about skill?

How else could you study their behavior and gain from it?

I meant it in a bigger picture of rebuilding than a snapshot of draft room of one team.
Obviously they nailed some picks so it would be great to be there but more importantly they mastered how to use cap room and they had top-notch process of multiplying assets [including spectacular triple-combo move of Leaving Rashard Lewis -> few months of Kurt Thomas -> 3 draft picks and btw one of them became Ibaka] and those are factors one can easily learn/judge from the outside which are essential for quick rebuilding effort.


Because it's a topic about Golden State Warriors' future I'll mention that IMHO they shot themselves in the foot multiple times last year which forced them to only one realistic scenario in the next season: try to make playoffs with a core of Bogut/Lee/Curry/Klay and learn in the process how good is Klay & what contracts they should offer to Curry & Bogut.

[EvanZ]

They'd be in a much better position now if they had amnestied Biedrins instead of Charlie Bell. Whoops.

[Mike G]

OK, so it's about the Warriors but it's also about the strategy of cashing in your assets in order to rebuild from several years of sterling drafts.

Serge Ibaka was drafted 24th, and in the 'lottery era', he's already 12th (of 27 #24 picks) in Win Shares accumulated, with 17.5 WS (in regular seasons, since the 1985 draft).
http://bkref.com/tiny/x3bJF
He's 22 years old, and if his career is half over, he'll be 8th best of 27, with 35 WS.
If it's 1/4 complete, he winds up with 70 WS, just ahead of Kirilenko; behind only Cassell (88) and TPorter (110).
(Among active players, he's behind Kyle Lowry and Delonte West.)

Westbrook, a #4 pick now age 23, ranks 19th of the last 27 #4 picks, with 25.4 WS.
If his career is half used up, he comes in at 51 WS, which is 10th among #4's.
If he's at the 1/4 mark, he is behind #1 Mutombo (117) and just about even with Rasheed (104).
(Also chasing Bosh, Jamison, and Paul)

Harden, a #3 pick, is #20 of 27. He's also listed as 22 years old and has 22 WS.
If he merely doubles his current WS total, he ranks above avg, at #12.
If he quadruples it, to 88 career WS, he's at #4 behind only Grant Hill (100), Pau Gasol (106), and Billups (120).
(He's also behind Carmelo, Deron Williams, and Al Horford.)

Durant, now age 23, is already 12th among #2 picks, with 50.5 WS.
If he just doubles that, he's 3rd in the lottery era, after only Kidd (133) and Payton (145)
If his career is 1/4 finished, he's the best #2 pick of the era, by a long shot.
(Besides Kidd, active players ahead of him: TChandler, Bibby, Camby)

Barring a worst case scenario for a couple of these players, the Sonic-Thunder may have had the best 3-year drafting run in bball history.
In the same interval, they also picked Carl Landry at #31, Glen Davis at 35, and Rodrigue Beaubois at 25.

[J.E.]

I think at least some of the credit needs to go to the coaching staff for developing Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka.
I don't think they would be playing that well, or better, if they got drafted by almost anyone else in the league, except for the handful of teams which are good at developing young talent: SAS, IND, CHI, PHI, MEM, DEN

[kpascual]

I support that sentiment. Part of me believes that it's more important for a team to know how to coach up a player than it is for a team to keep a #7 pick. If Serge Ibaka (#24 pick) went to GS instead of OKC, would he be the player he is today? Maybe, but given the Warriors' lack of success with big men in the past ... 30 years, I would be skeptical.

Living in the Bay, and therefore forced to watch this team every other day, I would want them to fire play by play guy Bob Fitzgerald, because he's such a homer that he's impossible to listen to. I don't really know how that helps the team any, but at least I'd be less annoyed watching them.

[EvanZ]

After many years living elsewhere, I'm moving back to the Bay Area in a few weeks.

Just in time for the turnaround.

hope, hope, fingers crossed

[Mike G]

So ... at what point did the SonicThunder franchise become a great place to grow into one's full potential?
Before the 2007 draft (Durant, Landry, and Glen Davis), they drafted Mouhamed Sene at #10; Johan Petro #25; Robert Swift #12 -- in the preceding 3 years.

Whether we attribute to luck or skill the sudden turnaround from bust city to boomtown, what changed in the organization, in the personnel who made these decisions?

If it's more skill than luck, then this person (or these people) may be the most valuable in the league, outside of elite players.

[EvanZ]

This man deserving of a lifetime deal apparently.

Imagine if he had gotten Tyson Chandler, which didn't go down because of a failed physical.

[wilq]

So ... at what point did the SonicThunder franchise become a great place to grow into one's full potential?
Before the 2007 draft (Durant, Landry, and Glen Davis), they drafted Mouhamed Sene at #10; Johan Petro #25; Robert Swift #12 -- in the preceding 3 years.

Maybe they did reach their full potential... which was just badly overestimated before the draft.
It's just too easy to dream about potential of very raw guys... while ignoring they may never develop.

Whether we attribute to luck or skill the sudden turnaround from bust city to boomtown, what changed in the organization, in the personnel who made these decisions?

Everything changed - ownership which hired new GM who hired new people and both director of player personnel and head scout resigned.

[Crow]

Warriors had the second worst FT/FGA ratio in the league this season...and the third worst of at least the last 32 years. Without Ellis it would seem they might go down further. And the team data after the trade shows that they did. This would seem to be a weakness requiring attention and requiring an acquisition as no current player appears suited to filling the gap. Will take several upgrades probably instead of just one to even get near average.


Defensive rebounding was at the very bottom this season and in the bottom 5% of the last 12 years. Bogut will help here as might a rookie big but will it be enough?

There may be many things to do but these are two areas where current players and available players should be measured.


Being near the bottom on eFG% and near the worst on FT/FGA allowed is the worst possible situation for these Factors. Got to improve at least one, if not both and by significant amounts.

[EvanZ]

Warriors had the second worst FT/FGA ratio in the league this season...and the third worst of the last 32 years.

Philly was worse.

[Crow]

Philly is 5th best on FT/FGA in the playoffs from some combo of change in their approach, ref impact, opponents, and randomness. I guess they can get to the line.

[mtamada]

So ... at what point did the SonicThunder franchise become a great place to grow into one's full potential?
Before the 2007 draft (Durant, Landry, and Glen Davis), they drafted Mouhamed Sene at #10; Johan Petro #25; Robert Swift #12 -- in the preceding 3 years.

[...]

Everything changed - ownership which hired new GM who hired new people and both director of player personnel and head scout resigned.

Yup. Although it's dangerous to draw conclusions from mere correlations, the Sonics, traditionally one of the better franchises in the NBA, started a long downhill slide as Wally Walker gained more influence, first as GM and then as part-owner of the team. To that string of big man draft busts can be added two comically bad signings of free agent big men: Jim McIlvaine and Calvin Booth.

Sam Presti arrived with high recommendations due to the Spurs' success. So far he has more than lived up to them.

However, it remains true that it's thing to have one string of successful drafts and a successful franchise re-build, and quite another to do it again. Jerry Krauss made several gutsy moves which turned out brilliantly for the Bulls, building the last great dynasty that the NBA has seen. One can't take that away from him, but his seeming genius turned out to be a one-time thing as he utterly failed while flailing trying to rebuild the post-Jordan Bulls. Joe Dumars built the best example of a team-oriented, non-superstar-oriented champion since the 1980s Pistons, or even the 1979 Sonics. But since then the Pistons have had three straight seasons of sub 40% winning percentage basketball, and counting. Geoff Petrie took one of the NBA's losing-est franchises and turned them into an exciting contender -- but the Kings have seen four straight seasons of 33%-or-below, although the ownership issues there make winning very difficult at the moment.

The number of front office men who've proven to be able to build a franchise into a contender more than once is very small: Red Auerbach, Jerry West, Pat Riley, maybe a few others. Presti's done really well, but how much of it was good luck and how much of it is repeatable won't be known for over a decade, when he has to rebuild without a Durant-Westbrook-Harden core.