Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 5:18 pm
Good thing Hollinger got a different job! 
Yeah, talk about a case of getting out while the getting was good.DSMok1 wrote:Good thing Hollinger got a different job!
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2012-2013 predictions
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Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:51 pm
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:46 pm
Schaller having a down year after winning last season. Schoene near the bottom, as it usually has been thru the years. WOW based ratings have moved up to middle of the pack now. Best I've seen from them. Bovada was 11th at first measurement this season but has moved up over time and is 2nd now.
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:02 pm
This is the first time in five years the ESPN forecast has been seriously handicapped by running so early.
The Harden trade, the Bynum diagnosis, the Love injury and the Nowitzki surgery all happened in September/October, weeks after our forecast.
C'est la vie.
Royce
The Harden trade, the Bynum diagnosis, the Love injury and the Nowitzki surgery all happened in September/October, weeks after our forecast.
C'est la vie.
Royce
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:15 pm
When was Hollinger's forecast run? I know most of the leaders in this contest were done quite late.RoyceWebb wrote:This is the first time in five years the ESPN forecast has been seriously handicapped by running so early.
The Harden trade, the Bynum diagnosis, the Love injury and the Nowitzki surgery all happened in September/October, weeks after our forecast.
C'est la vie.
Royce
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:54 pm
John turned in his stuff in September but updates were made before the season. I don't know which set of numbers is being cited on this board.DSMok1 wrote:When was Hollinger's forecast run? I know most of the leaders in this contest were done quite late.RoyceWebb wrote:This is the first time in five years the ESPN forecast has been seriously handicapped by running so early.
The Harden trade, the Bynum diagnosis, the Love injury and the Nowitzki surgery all happened in September/October, weeks after our forecast.
C'est la vie.
Royce
RW
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 4:31 pm
Probably a good time to check these again (thru 1/15/13):
("All41" is just a prediction that every team would finish 41-41.)
Code: Select all
Rank vs Naive RMSE Rank vs .500 RMSE Rank vs Pyth RMSE
------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------
1 Bovada 7.888 1 np "dumb" 6.802 1 np "dumb" 6.236
2 np "dumb" 8.087 2 Bovada 7.119 2 Bovada 6.627
3 Bobbofitos 8.563 3 Bobbofitos 7.521 3 Bobbofitos 7.088
4 ESPN Summer 8.635 4 DSMok1_2 7.722 4 DSMok1_2 7.238
5 LV Hilton 8.703 5 DSMok1 7.737 5 DSMok1 7.264
6 WoW1 8.811 6 WoW1 7.776 6 LV Hilton 7.367
7 WoW2 8.905 7 ESPN Summer 7.802 7 TeamRankings 7.369
8 Schaller 8.933 8 TeamRankings 7.870 8 WoW1 7.377
9 DSMok1_2 8.944 9 LV Hilton 7.871 9 ESPN Summer 7.413
10 DSMok1 8.967 10 WoW2 7.941 10 WoW2 7.512
11 v-zero 9.048 11 Schaller 8.030 11 v-zero 7.514
12 TeamRankings 9.246 12 v-zero 8.171 12 Schaller 7.727
13 Hollinger 9.323 13 Hollinger 8.633 13 Hollinger 8.320
14 SCHOENE 9.717 14 SCHOENE 8.730 14 SCHOENE 8.323
15 All41 12.949 15 All41 11.292 15 All41 11.245
------------------------------- ------------------------------- -------------------------------
Hi Royce -- I'm using his final predictions from right after the Harden trade went down: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... kets-tradeRoyceWebb wrote:John turned in his stuff in September but updates were made before the season. I don't know which set of numbers is being cited on this board.
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:19 pm
Thanks, Neil.
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 4:36 am
Thinking of signing my name in a petition to rename "np 'dumb'" to "np 'smart.'"
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 4:44 pm
5 spot difference for DSMOK1_2 on the naive ranking (first column) compared to the other two rankings. 5 spot difference for ESPN between 1st and 3rd columns. Most of the other contestants' ranks vary by 2 or less spots.
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:11 pm
Time to update these:
You can't beat Vegas!
Code: Select all
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------
naive_pace RMSE .500 prior RMSE pyth prior RMSE
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------
Bovada 6.12 Bovada 5.83 Bovada 5.62
np "dumb" 6.79 np "dumb" 6.18 np "dumb" 5.92
ESPN Summer 6.89 ESPN Summer 6.55 ESPN Summer 6.41
Schaller 6.94 Schaller 6.57 Bobbofitos 6.45
LV Hilton 7.01 Bobbofitos 6.64 LV Hilton 6.45
Hollinger 7.03 LV Hilton 6.67 Schaller 6.49
Bobbofitos 7.11 WoW1 6.78 v-zero 6.52
v-zero 7.18 Hollinger 6.81 DSMok1_2 6.61
WoW1 7.24 DSMok1_2 6.82 WoW1 6.62
DSMok1_2 7.39 v-zero 6.83 DSMok1 6.65
WoW2 7.43 DSMok1 6.85 Hollinger 6.74
DSMok1 7.43 WoW2 7.01 TeamRankings 6.82
TeamRankings 7.71 TeamRankings 7.04 WoW2 6.83
2012reg 8.12 2012reg 7.76 2012reg 7.30
SCHOENE 8.28 SCHOENE 7.85 SCHOENE 7.68
all41 11.89 all41 11.07 all41 11.07
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:21 pm
I should note that I added a new "contestant"/sanity check -- "2012reg" is just what we'd predict if we took last year's record for each team and added on 11.8 games of .500 ball. Not to speak ill of SCHOENE, and I hope it passes 2012reg before the season ends, but any system worth its salt should not be losing to a regressed version of last year's record that doesn't take into account last year's point differential/SRS or any offseason transactions.
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 6:10 pm
Vegas is looking good right now, thankfully I didn't have to bet on all of my predictions. I did have a spread bet on a few (financial style spread bet, i.e. £x per win under/over depending on whether you 'buy' or 'sell'), and I am generally pleased with those, though some were complete misses:
Sold the Lakeshow at 58 wins: Excellent.
Bought Washington at 28: Bad, but they should make some of that back now.
Bought Orlando at 24.5: Fine, not bad, not particularly good.
Bought the Spurs at 56: Good.
Sold Indiana at 50.5: Fine again.
Sold Brooklyn at 44: Oops. Still waiting for them to regress tbh.
Bought Houston at 30.5: Like stealing money.
Sold the Lakeshow at 58 wins: Excellent.
Bought Washington at 28: Bad, but they should make some of that back now.
Bought Orlando at 24.5: Fine, not bad, not particularly good.
Bought the Spurs at 56: Good.
Sold Indiana at 50.5: Fine again.
Sold Brooklyn at 44: Oops. Still waiting for them to regress tbh.
Bought Houston at 30.5: Like stealing money.
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:34 pm
Pretty big rises by Schaller and Hollinger. Notable drops by WOW and DSMok1.
Re: 2012-2013 predictions
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:23 pm
Don't call it a comeback