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Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:20 am
by Bobbofitos
Mike G wrote:
Around here, people suggested Marion was the "real" MVP for the Suns, when Nash was getting the award. After all, he played both ends.
Did we?
I think APBR largely avoids group think. I also think Nash's MVPs just predated my association with this forum, but I thought a lot of +/- and so forth backed up Nash's MVPs. (Or at least hammered away he was
more responsible than Marion)
All that said, the Matrix has been shafted his whole career. Very underrated player and its great he earned a ring as a key member of the Mavericks.
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 10:33 am
by Mike G
Some people thought Marion was the lynchpin on the Suns; some thought Amar'e; some -- not nearly as many as the frenzied media -- thought Nash.
We are probably about through the players who are "good enough to lead a team to a title". There have been a few committee-type champs, the '79 Sonics perhaps. And we're now voting on Sikma, DJ, and Gus from that squad. The 2000 Pacers had a chance to upend the Lakers without any superstar.
A player like Willis Reed or Rick Barry can lead a team to a title, if he also has a deep supporting cast.
Kirilenko's couple of years in the statistical limelight did not coincide with his being on a good team. Maybe he only flourished as the go-to guy, and was less comfortable as a supporting player. With (all)stars at C (Okur), PF (Boozer) and PG (DWill), AK and the Jazz rather underperformed in playoffs.
PO/RS is shorthand for Playoff/Regular-Season ratio in a given stat. You can do it with a player's PER or his Reb% or whatever. With WS/48, it's very team-dependent: If your team tanks, your WS shrink.
I use my own "T rate" in po/rs, since it's standardized for environment (points and rebounds available). There are ratios for career aggregate totals, and annual ratios (summed and minutes-weighted) for perspective.
In general, a player's po/rs will be less than 1.00 . Players we've been electing have been around .96, which is pretty good. Over 1.00 is extremely good.
If you do it with ws/48, expect ratios to be around .80 -- RS competition is vs .500 teams (on avg), and in playoffs it's more like .625, in recent decades.
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:22 am
by Mike G
Regarding the Playoff/Regular Season performance ratio for career totals, here are averages for those we've voted or are voting on.
A list (top 25) .977
B list (#26-47) .990
C list (#48-69) .960
current crop .962
This supports the notion that superstars are just that because, at least in part, they have their way in the postseason. And/or they have gotten preferential treatment.
Is there an era bias? I'm going to casually call the players we've seen the 'top 120' here. Averages are not minutes-weighted. Under
.era is the decade in which a career started; so
'60s may be thought of as
'60s-'70s typically.
Code: Select all
.era top120 next500
'50s .982 .950
'60s .975 .951
'70s .980 .947
'80s .985 .940
'90s .957 .895
'00s .948 .921
In the '50s and early '60s, 6 of 8 (or 9) teams got into the playoffs. A lot of playoff opponents were below avg teams.
In the mid '80s, playoffs included 16 of 23 teams; now it's 16 of 30, so it's rare that a sub-.500 team is your opponent.
The little uptick in the po/rs in this century is likely a selection bias issue: There's a disproportionate number of excellent players midway through their careers. In other words, the rank-and-file po/rs (.921) represents a higher caliber of players.
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 12:49 pm
by Mike G
The perception of era strength is a fascinating subject. I'm pretty sure NtA and I meant exactly the opposite when we agreed that 'making the allstar game isn't what it once was'.
So here are the weakest PER by position, of players named to the NBA All Star game. I'm just listing from 1955 onward, i.e., the shot clock era.
A PER of 15.0 is an 'average' player, though it runs higher for centers and lower for guards.
Code: Select all
Center yr PER Forward yr PER Guard yr PER
Eaton 89 10.6 Sauldsberry 59 10.8 Harrison 56 8.0
Clifton 57 12.1 Meschery 63 12.9 Martin 58 9.3
Donaldson 88 12.4 Hutchins 57 13.0 Martin 59 9.3
Kareem 89 12.9 Pollard 55 13.2 Regan 57 10.0
Imhoff 67 13.6 C Lee 68 13.4 Martin 57 10.5
Duckworth 89 13.9 LaRusso 63 13.6 Noble 60 10.9
Embry 65 14.2 Bradley 73 13.8 Gola 62 11.4
Reed 66 14.4 Wedman 76 13.9 Gola 64 11.6
Cowens 80 14.8 Deng 12 14.1 George 57 11.7
S Johnson 88 14.9 Shelton 82 14.2 Gola 63 12.0
Thurmond 74 15.0 Havlicek 78 14.3 Wilkens 63 12.1
Thurmond 66 15.0 Heinsohn 65 14.3 Hundley 61 12.2
Unseld 75 15.0 Hutchins 56 14.4 McGuire 58 12.2
Embry 64 15.1 Caldwell 69 14.5 Ohl 64 12.2
Rocha 52 15.2 P Silas 75 14.6 Rodgers 64 12.4
Russell 69 15.2 A Walker 03 14.6 A Smith 64 12.4
Lacey 75 15.3 AC Green 90 14.7 Garmaker 59 12.5
Sampson 87 15.4 Havlicek 77 14.7 Wilkens 64 12.5
Dukes 60 15.5 Rowe 76 14.7 McGuire 56 12.7
Kerr 56 15.7 TVanArsdale 72 14.7 Hundley 60 12.9
The late '80s were amazingly thin on good (or productive) centers, according to PER. The '50s were replete.
I thought surely there were more recent duds among the stars at C. Finally at #23 we come to Mutombo, 2002. None lower than 16.0 in the '90s, '00s, or '10s. [At 16.5, Magloire '04 ranks 30th.]
Forwards are more evenly spread through time, though more rare in recent decades. And with 2 forwards per 1 center (in theory), about twice as many are below 14.8 or so.
Guards were apparently doing their job without being productive, in the old days. These bottom 20 are all from 1964 and earlier. So I'll list lowest allstar guard PER by decade:
Code: Select all
1970s yr PER 1980s yr PER 1990s yr PER 2000s yr PER
Van Lier 76 13.0 Archibald 82 14.3 Dumars 95 13.9 Iverson 10 13.4
Maravich 79 13.4 Archibald 81 14.3 Sprewell 95 14.1 Sprewell 01 15.1
Van Lier 77 13.4 Thomas 82 14.5 Armstrong 94 14.5 Francis 04 15.8
White 74 14.0 Archibald 80 15.3 Majerle 95 15.1 Iverson 09 15.8
Buse 77 14.1 Nixon 82 15.3 Majerle 93 15.4 Houston 01 16.1
Hollins 78 14.3 Nixon 85 15.6 Dumars 92 15.4 R Allen 11 16.4
White 76 14.6 Ainge 88 15.9 Thomas 93 15.4 R Allen 08 16.4
White 73 14.7 D Johnson 80 15.9 Dumars 97 15.6 Kidd 10 17.2
White 77 14.9 Thompson 83 16.1 Richmond 93 15.6 M Williams 09 17.2
White 75 14.9 J Malone 86 16.3 A Hardaway 98 15.9 J Johnson 08 17.3
That last column looks the best, and that's with 14 seasons of potential weak allstars.
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 1:59 pm
by Mike G
It looks like Allstar rosters were increased from 10 per side to 12 in 1968, coinciding with league expansion. I think they were still trying to get at least one per team in the game.
Not wanting to name names (too much work), here's a breakdown in Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48), from pages like this:
http://bkref.com/tiny/M1Akm
There have been 40 all-star centers with ws/48 less than .120 (.100 is average, but as with PER, it runs higher for centers and lower for guards).
To be proportional by position, I also find 82 forwards named to the allstar game with < .110 ws/48; and 81 guards at < .095
Breaking it into 5-yr intervals in the shot-clock era (no ASG in '99) and the last 3 yrs.
Code: Select all
years C<.12 F<.11 G<.095
55-59 4 7 16
60-64 5 12 16
65-69 5 14 8
70-74 3 18 8
75-79 2 5 11
80-84 1 4 3
85-89 12 5 3
90-94 2 5 3
95-00 1 7 4
01-05 1 4 4
06-10 2 2 3
11-13* 0 1 2
The late '80s were just freakish for centers. The late '70s guard weakness I mentioned a few posts back is especially weak relative to the other positions at the time and to everything since.
The ABA was apparently hoarding the forwards.
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:27 pm
by MW00
The best careers available by a combination of rankings by win shares (Regular Season) and version of Hollinger EWA (crude and somewhat modern skewed, not fully up to date, subjectively modified for defense (not by me), with weighted playoffs)
Shawn Marion
Walt Bellamy
Larry Nance
Elton Brand
Chauncey Billups
Alex English
Grant Hill
Jack Sikma
Neil Johnston
Vlade Divac
Rasheed Wallace
Bailey Howell
Paul Arizin
Shawn Kemp
Chris Webber
Terry Cummings
Ed Macauley
Jeff Hornacek
Sidney Moncrief
Amar'e Stoudemire
Eddie Jones
Horace Grant
Chet Walker
Terry Porter
Andre Miller
Chris Mullin
Chris Bosh
Detlef Schrempf
Jason Terry
Marques Johnson
Sam Jones
Tim Hardaway
Sam Cassell
Rod Strickland
Harry Gallatin
Bill Laimbeer
Marcus Camby
Rashard Lewis
Walter Davis
Bernard King
Vern Mikkelsen
Nate Archibald
Cliff Hagan
Lenny Wilkens
Antawn Jamison
Maurice Cheeks
Stephon Marbury
Andrei Kirilenko
Alvan Adams
Carlos Boozer
Bobby Jones
Shareef-Abdur-Rahim
Predrag Stojakovic
Clyde Lovellette
John Drew
Calvin Murphy
Yao Ming
Mark Price
That's down to 125
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:47 pm
by MW00
Write in: Bailey Howell, Sidney Moncrief, Nate Archibald, Eddie Jones, Chet Walker, Walter Davis, Bernard King and Lenny Wilkens. (The last 5 mentioned were all fairly perhipheral).
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 11:03 pm
by Mike G
Heinsohn and Walton are not on that list, and we're about to elect them, it seems.
Due to arrive on Tuesday and not in that list: Blaylock, Bridges, Chambers, Mel Daniels, Daugherty, Greer, Penny, Ron Harper, Haywood, Oakley, Jermaine, Zach, Willis Reed, Rondo, Josh Smith, Smits, Thorpe, Westbrook, Deron Williams
The biggest 'reach', relative to my list is Peja (243 to me); then John Drew (232), Murphy (216), Shareef (208), Rashard (182), Mullin (166), Macauley (155)
From the list you submitted, we'll also be voting on Cheeks, Laimbeer, Schrempf, Andre Miller -- perhaps Mikkelsen, Camby, Yao -- in the next round.
Even when you approach perfection in attributing wins -- and even when you give playoffs appropriate weight -- it's still not quite there in assessing the impact of a Rondo or a Reed, IMO
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:44 pm
by Mike G
Down the home stretch here. Voting ends tomorrow morning (Tues.) Six people have placed 146 votes, I think. Remember you may change any of your votes.
George McGinnis looks like the best player/career on course to be fumbled in this round, with just 2 supporters among 6 voters.
McGinnis is the guy who averaged 32-16-8 in the playoffs, through the 1975 ABA Finals. He was co-MVP that year (w Erving).
He jumped to the Sixers and was all-NBA 1st team. A total of 6 allstar games, 3 in each league.
With write-ins, 59 players have gotten consideration. Of these, 26 have at least 3 votes, including write-in Sidney Moncrief; and previous-round write-ins Rodman and Sharman.
Just 14 players have
more than half of our votes; so it would be nice if more voters would register, and perhaps create a better sense of consensus.
Another 14 players have just one vote each, including 2 who were just me: Alvan Adams and Lamar Odom. One reason I like these guys is their Versatility: They were bigs who loved to pass the ball.
Odom has bad press right now, but he was the #3-4 guy on two Lakers champs. Even when he wasn't starting, he was pretty indispensable for them, playing 3 positions.
After 14 seasons, he's 93rd in NBA minutes, 36th in D-Reb, and above average in almost every production.
Players with 30,000 minutes and at least 14 pts, 9 reb, and 4 ast per 36: Bird, Webber, and Odom.
With 20k minutes, add Alvan Adams and Billy Cunningham.
Webber is the only one better at
everything (except shooting %), and some do not consider him to be an all-time great.
http://bkref.com/tiny/vdkRj
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:49 pm
by mark kieffer
Odom had top 100 talent/potential, but he's not a top 100 player.
C-Webb, I initially thought would go in the Top 100 before I looked at his numbers, but I think he's borderline. Could go either way with him.
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:58 pm
by mark kieffer
Also with C-Webb, you have to look at it that PF is a pretty damn strong position:
Tim Duncan > C-Webb
KG > C-Webb
Karl Malone > C-Webb
Charles Barkley > C-Webb
Dirk > C-Webb
Elvin Hayes > C-Webb
Bob Pettit > C-Webb
Kevin McHale > C-Webb
Rodman > C-Webb
Nance > C-Webb
Shawn Marion > C-Webb
Sheed > C-Webb
DeBusschere > C-Webb
Jerry Lucas > C-Webb
So to me, he's at least the 15th best PF of all time....Then I think about guys like Chris Bosh, Elton Brand, Pau Gasol, Shawn Kemp, Antwan Jamison, Larry Johnson, and Derrick Coleman.... And I feel like C-Webb is in that class of guys, which means he could be anywhere from 15th to 22nd or lower of all time at PF.... But to me that class is a little lower than the class I have above.... So I leave C-Webb out
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:12 pm
by Mike G
Mark, welcome to the convo! Hope you will vote.
Indeed, a search for PF here --
http://bkref.com/tiny/q45jF -- using as criteria that the player is F or F-C, and his Total Rebound % is greater than 12, shows Webber as 31st in career regular season Win Shares. And this only includes forwards who registered a TRb%, which is to say, after 1971.
Win Shares isn't fond of Webber, mostly due to his low shooting%, relative to his era.
Among those top 100 in WS, he's 40th in WS/48.
Among the same top 100 WS players, he's 10th in PER. Again, in regular seasons.
He's 27th in minutes, and among those with as many minutes, he's 8th in PER. When Elton Brand plays a few more substandard minutes, Webber will be 7th.
Just 14 have higher WS/48 for as many minutes.
His career playoffs are slightly weaker. He's 27th in minutes, 37th in WS; among those with as many minutes, he's 11th in PER and 25th in WS/48.
Only Larry Bird had a higher playoff Assist % for as many minutes. With less than CWebb's 2900 min., we go all the way to Grant Hill's 1232 min. with a higher Ast%. Not sure either is actually a PF, in general.
Webber led the league in Reb/G in 1999.
He's 83rd in b-r.com's Hall of Fame probability, which they estimate at 75% likely.
Per 36 minutes, only Bird, Webber, and Cunningham have averaged 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists in over 50 career min.
http://bkref.com/tiny/VPlnY
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:03 pm
by Mike G
I realize this is totally evil, but here are some recent PF/C and their peak salaries.
Code: Select all
top salary, $ millions
Garnett 2004 28.0
Duncan 2010 22.2
Nowitzki 2013 20.9
K Malone 2003 19.3
Webber 2006 19.1
P Gasol 2013 19.0
Marion 2009 17.8
Bosh 2013 17.5
Brand 2012 17.1
Rasheed 2004 17.0
Jamison 2008 16.4
B Wallace 2007 16.0
Kemp 2004 14.9
Barkley 2000 9.0
Obviously many factors are at work here. But Webber was making 9 mill in 1997-98, when Barkley was getting 2.25, Malone 5.1, Kemp 8.6, Rodman 4.5 ...
Most Win Shares by PF: Malone, Duncan, Garnett, Barkley, Nowitzki.
Webber may not have ever been the best at his position. But at other times in NBA history, he may well have been.
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:40 pm
by mark kieffer
Mike G wrote:I realize this is totally evil, but here are some recent PF/C and their peak salaries.
Code: Select all
top salary, $ millions
Garnett 2009 24.8
Duncan 2010 22.2
Nowitzki 2013 20.9
K Malone 2003 19.3
Webber 2006 19.1
P Gasol 2013 19.0
Marion 2009 17.8
Bosh 2013 17.5
Brand 2012 17.1
Rasheed 2004 17.0
Jamison 2008 16.4
B Wallace 2007 16.0
Kemp 2004 14.9
Barkley 2000 9.0
Obviously many factors are at work here. But Webber was making 9 mill in 1997-98, when Barkley was getting 2.25, Malone 5.1, Kemp 8.6, Rodman 4.5 ...
Most Win Shares by PF: Malone, Duncan, Garnett, Barkley, Nowitzki.
Webber may not have ever been the best at his position. But at other times in NBA history, he may well have been.
Salary logic..... Stephon Marbury made 17 million his last full season in the NBA... You want to put him up there on any all time lists (other than all time over paid or all time suck?)?
in 1997-1998, Malone was 34, Barkley was 34, Kemp was 28, Rodman was 36... C-Webb was 24. Of course he was going to make more. He was the only guy on the list not in his prime yet, and salaries in the NBA were skyrocketing....
If you look at all time win-shares, Webber is in the Top 120.
Since you are quoting win-shares, Webber has only had 1 season ever when he was in the Top 10 in winshares... All time, he is outside of the Top 100, like 117th or something.
Like I said, he's a borderline player for Top 100 of all time. If I were coaching a team, would I take him in his prime over lots of guys? Yeah.... But to think he's in the Top 100 is stretching it for me.
Re: Vote players into our alltime top 100, etc.
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 10:03 am
by Mike G
We got another voter! And some stray votes.
Now there are 19 with 4+ votes and 31 with 3+
What a dilemma!
Someone drag a voter in here.
Or, explain why you think we should promote and replace 31 players, or just 19 .
Should we advance players with fewer than half our votes?
Those on the bubble (3 of 7 votes) are : English, Bosh, Lovellette, DeBush, DJ, McGinnis, Hornacek, Sheed, Sam Jones, Moncrief, TBug, Zelmo
On the one hand, all these guys are likely to be voted in easily in the next round.
On the other, they got half or fewer votes than some of the other guys.
It'll take a lot longer to go through all the players if we are too selective in each round. But then, who's in a hurry? If an undeserving player gets in, we'll wonder how he got there.
Adding 31 to the 69 we've got is -- presto! -- 100 players. We'd be back on track. But we'd have set a precedent. Is that OK ?