APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

[vjl110]

My list.

• RANK Name EWP
  1 D'Angelo Russell 11.7
  2 Karl Towns 11.4
  3 Justise Winslow 9.5
  4 Jahlil Okafor 9.4
  5 Stanley Johnson 7.6
  6 Kevon Looney 7.6
  7 Frank Kaminsky 7.3
  8 Delon Wright 6.3
  9 Kelly Oubre 6.2
  10 Tyus Jones 6
  11 Willie Cauley-Stein 5.7
  12 Myles Turner 5.7
  13 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 5.4
  14 Christian Wood 4.9
  15 Justin Anderson 4.6
  16 Sam Dekker 4.5
  17 Chris McCullough 4.5
  18 Jerian Grant 3.6
  19 Branden Dawson 3.5
  20 Devin Booker 3.5
  21 J.P. Tokoto 3.5
  22 Trey Lyles 3.4
  23 Cliff Alexander 3.4
  24 Cameron Payne 3.4
  25 Richaun Holmes 3.4
  26 Rashad Vaughn 3.3
  27 Dakari Johnson 3.2
  28 Aaron Harrison 3.2
  29 Andrew Harrison 3.2
  30 Joshua Smith 3.1
  31 Aaron White 3
  32 Pat Connaughton 2.9
  33 Robert Upshaw 2.9
  34 T.J. McConnell 2.9
  35 Jarell Martin 2.8
  36 Shannon Scott 2.8
  37 Montrezl Harrell 2.7
  38 Terry Rozier 2.7
  39 Bobby Portis 2.6
  40 Larry Nance '15 2.6
  41 Jordan Mickey 2.5
  42 Wesley Saunders 2.5
  43 Darrun Hilliard 2.3
  44 Anthony Brown 2.2
  45 Chasson Randle 2.2
  46 Michael Frazier 2.2
  47 TaShawn Thomas 2.2
  48 Derrick Marks 2
  49 Keifer Sykes 2
  50 Josh Richardson 1.9
  51 Norman Powell 1.8
  52 Olivier Hanlan 1.8
  53 Quinn Cook 1.8
  54 Jonathan Holmes 1.8
  55 Michael Qualls 1.8
  56 Chris Walker 1.7
  57 Marcus Thornton '15 1.7
  58 Alan Williams 1.7
  59 Dez Wells 1.6
  60 Travis Trice 1.6
  61 Rakeem Christmas 1.5
  62 Treveon Graham 1.5
  63 Tyler Harvey 1.5
  64 D.J. Newbill 1.4
  65 Joseph Young 1.3
  66 Juwan Staten 1.3
  67 Terran Petteway 1.3
  68 Corey Hawkins 1.1
  69 Julian Washburn 1
  70 LeBryan Nash 1

If we want to include Tuttle, he slides in between McCollough and Grant

[ampersand5]

My list.

• RANK Name EWP
  1 D'Angelo Russell 11.7
  2 Karl Towns 11.4
  3 Justise Winslow 9.5
  4 Jahlil Okafor 9.4
  5 Stanley Johnson 7.6
  6 Kevon Looney 7.6
  7 Frank Kaminsky 7.3
  8 Delon Wright 6.3
  9 Kelly Oubre 6.2
  10 Tyus Jones 6
  11 Willie Cauley-Stein 5.7
  12 Myles Turner 5.7
  13 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 5.4
  14 Christian Wood 4.9
  15 Justin Anderson 4.6
  16 Sam Dekker 4.5
  17 Chris McCullough 4.5
  18 Jerian Grant 3.6
  19 Branden Dawson 3.5
  20 Devin Booker 3.5
  21 J.P. Tokoto 3.5
  22 Trey Lyles 3.4
  23 Cliff Alexander 3.4
  24 Cameron Payne 3.4
  25 Richaun Holmes 3.4
  26 Rashad Vaughn 3.3
  27 Dakari Johnson 3.2
  28 Aaron Harrison 3.2
  29 Andrew Harrison 3.2
  30 Joshua Smith 3.1
  31 Aaron White 3
  32 Pat Connaughton 2.9
  33 Robert Upshaw 2.9
  34 T.J. McConnell 2.9
  35 Jarell Martin 2.8
  36 Shannon Scott 2.8
  37 Montrezl Harrell 2.7
  38 Terry Rozier 2.7
  39 Bobby Portis 2.6
  40 Larry Nance '15 2.6
  41 Jordan Mickey 2.5
  42 Wesley Saunders 2.5
  43 Darrun Hilliard 2.3
  44 Anthony Brown 2.2
  45 Chasson Randle 2.2
  46 Michael Frazier 2.2
  47 TaShawn Thomas 2.2
  48 Derrick Marks 2
  49 Keifer Sykes 2
  50 Josh Richardson 1.9
  51 Norman Powell 1.8
  52 Olivier Hanlan 1.8
  53 Quinn Cook 1.8
  54 Jonathan Holmes 1.8
  55 Michael Qualls 1.8
  56 Chris Walker 1.7
  57 Marcus Thornton '15 1.7
  58 Alan Williams 1.7
  59 Dez Wells 1.6
  60 Travis Trice 1.6
  61 Rakeem Christmas 1.5
  62 Treveon Graham 1.5
  63 Tyler Harvey 1.5
  64 D.J. Newbill 1.4
  65 Joseph Young 1.3
  66 Juwan Staten 1.3
  67 Terran Petteway 1.3
  68 Corey Hawkins 1.1
  69 Julian Washburn 1
  70 LeBryan Nash 1

If we want to include Tuttle, he slides in between McCollough and Grant

Awesome!

I noticed that four players (Brandon Ashley, RJ Hunter, Ryan Boatright and Vince Hunter) are missing. Was this by design, or is there missing information on those players making them unworkable in your system?

[vjl110]

Whoops... not sure how that happened.

R.J. Hunter is 3 and slides in after Josh Smith.

Vince Hunter scores a 4.5 and goes just after McCollough.

Ashley scores a 2.2 and goes above Marks

Not sure what the deal is with Boatright. For some reason he isn't popping up. I'll give a number for him once I figure it out.

[vjl110]

Boatright, 1.7, just ahead of Walker.

[DSMok1]

All reading systems should rate the same set of players and then have a list of additional players and where they would rank within the larger list. That way the cross-system comparisons won't be compromised by having a different set of players ranked.

[Statman]

All reading systems should rate the same set of players and then have a list of additional players and where they would rank within the larger list. That way the cross-system comparisons won't be compromised by having a different set of players ranked.

I agree.

We'll probably get a pretty solid idea on a few names to add in for a final general consensus ranking before the draft.

[Statman]

Top guys by my numbers who aren't listed...

Seth Tuttle
Briante Weber (awkward b/c of injury)
Ousmane Drame
Royce O'Neale
Rayvonte Rice
Kevin Pangos
Damion Lee

Tuttle is the only guy who the numbers argue should be considered in the 1st round, but the others look like good to decent 2nd round selections. I'll post mine soon. I just need to figure out where I have a name inconsistency with TaShawn Thomas.

Tuttle & Weber should rate decently well by about every model I think - well enough to be included in this list for sure. Rayvonte Rice should do well in my model.

Damion Lee is playing this coming season at Louisville (grad transfer). He'd be on the list for sure if he was going pro.

[vjl110]

The issue with Weber is that he would be on the draft list as well if not for his injury. It makes him an awkward inclusion since the models are "wrong" about where he should be drafted for an obvious outside reason.

[nrestifo]

My ratings of the list of 75:

Rank Player Position Norm Eval.
1 D'Angelo Russell PG/SG 4.916
2 Jahlil Okafor C 4.863
3 Karl Towns PF/C 3.920
4 Myles Turner C 3.858
5 Tyus Jones PG 3.796
6 Kevon Looney PF 3.693
7 Bobby Portis PF 3.669
8 Chris McCullough PF 3.597
9 Justise Winslow SF 3.474
10 Delon Wright PG 3.127
11 Montrezl Harrell PF/C 3.101
12 Kelly Oubre SF 3.058
13 Jerian Grant PG 3.024
14 Cliff Alexander PF/C 3.014
15 Willie Cauley-Stein C 3.014
16 Stanley Johnson SF 2.979
17 Christian Wood PF 2.725
18 Wesley Saunders SG 2.689
19 Trey Lyles PF 2.640
20 Jordan Mickey PF/C 2.522
21 Cameron Payne PG 2.478
22 Sam Dekker SF 2.473
23 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson SF 2.463
24 Robert Upshaw C 2.421
25 TaShawn Thomas PF 2.377
26 Frank Kaminsky PF 2.355
27 Branden Dawson SF 2.355
28 Terry Rozier PG 2.260
29 Dakari Johnson C 2.223
30 Justin Anderson SF 2.184
31 Rashad Vaughn SG 2.145
32 Michael Frazier SG 2.077
33 Chasson Randle SG 2.065
34 J.P. Tokoto SG 2.020
35 Seth Tuttle F 1.874
36 Richaun Holmes PF 1.766
37 Vince Hunter PF 1.737
38 Quinn Cook PG 1.719
39 Jarell Martin PF 1.667
40 Michael Qualls SG 1.651
41 Aaron Harrison SG 1.630
42 Ryan Boatright PG 1.618
43 Shannon Scott PG 1.592
44 Larry Nance PF 1.536
45 Andrew Harrison PG/SG 1.518
46 Josh Richardson G 1.494
47 Juwan Staten PG 1.412
48 Joseph Young SG 1.383
49 Joshua Smith C 1.373
50 Rakeem Christmas PF/C 1.322
51 R.J. Hunter SG 1.264
52 Derrick Marks SG 1.208
53 Tyler Harvey G 1.154
54 Pat Connaughton SG 1.152
55 Norman Powell SG 1.120
56 T.J. McConnell PG 1.103
57 LeBryan Nash SF 1.072
58 Brandon Ashley PF 1.028
59 Terran Petteway SG 0.999
60 Olivier Hanlan PG/SG 0.931
61 Keifer Sykes PG 0.886
62 Dez Wells SG 0.793
63 Julian Washburn F 0.767
64 Corey Hawkins SG 0.750
65 Darrun Hilliard SF 0.702
66 Alan Williams C 0.693
67 Jonathan Holmes SF 0.607
68 Devin Booker C 0.463
69 Travis Trice G 0.442
70 D.J. Newbill SG 0.383
71 Marcus Thorton F 0.323
72 Treveon Graham SG 0.304
73 Aaron White PF 0.268
74 Chris Walker G -0.002
75 Anthony Brown F -0.204

And other prospects that do well. I tried my best to filter out the NCAA guys that will likely be going to the NBA next year.

Name Position Norm. Eval
Jarrod Uthoff SF/PF 2.780
Alex Caruso PG/SG 2.706
Kyle Collinsworth SF 2.677
Riley LaChance PG 2.671
Isaiah Whitehead SG 2.651
Denzel Valentine SG 2.515
Hassan Martin F 2.484
Troy Caupain PG 2.484
Charles Jackson C 1.650


I'll try to finish my writeup on the methodology tonight.

[Crow]

Comparing the first two projection sets, I see sizeable differences with Portis and Harrell. Both like Wright a lot. Other findings possible I imagine. Like the big difference with Booker.

[vjl110]

To be clear... none of those guys mentioned at the end are declaring.. right? Either way... I added a few to my data!

It makes me sad to see Frank so low on yours. Surprising that Cliff Alexander appears to look better by the numbers than his mock consensus. Doesn't often happen with a player preseason rated as a clear top-5.

[nrestifo]

I noticed a very small error soon after posting. Doesn't really change much but for the sake of being precise, D'Angelo should be 4.951, not 4.916.

My ratings of the list of 75:

Rank Player Position Norm Eval.
1 D'Angelo Russell PG/SG 4.916
2 Jahlil Okafor C 4.863
3 Karl Towns PF/C 3.920
4 Myles Turner C 3.858
5 Tyus Jones PG 3.796

[nrestifo]

To be clear... none of those guys mentioned at the end are declaring.. right? Either way... I added a few to my data!

It makes me sad to see Frank so low on yours. Surprising that Cliff Alexander appears to look better by the numbers than his mock consensus. Doesn't often happen with a player preseason rated as a clear top-5.

Depending on the models I use, I can get Frank up several spots. I used this ensemble because I think it provides the best mix of accuracy and stability out of my available models/ensembles. Given what I've seen from other models and even my own stuff, I think Kaminsky is undervalued by this featured ensemble.

Also, to be clear, I incorporate High School Rank into these methods. It is very important in one of the four models I use in this ensemble. Explains low on Kaminsky, high on Alexander.

[vjl110]

Ahhhh... that would help explain the Turner love as well.

[Statman]

The issue with Weber is that he would be on the draft list as well if not for his injury. It makes him an awkward inclusion since the models are "wrong" about where he should be drafted for an obvious outside reason.

Well, he wasn't a frosh, we have good career data on him. I use weighted last two seasons when the data is available.