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Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:25 am
by shadow
You're welcome
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:51 am
by Mike G
Shadow, can you put minutes or possessions alongside player rapm?
My understanding is that players with few minutes are shifted toward zero. And the upshot is that the top and bottom ends are unpopulated by such players. But it would be nice to just see how players rank relative to others with 100+ minutes or 1000 min. etc
Personally, I'd rather know that a guy played 5 total minutes with apm = -10 and an error spread of 25, than just see -0.1 without context. And the standard error is kind of estimable from the minutes.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:10 pm
by shadow
Sure, either one shouldn't be too difficult to add. Will let you know when it's been updated.
Update: Minutes played has been added to the sheet.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:20 am
by Mike G
Far out. Now we can estimate total points above or below norm.
Code: Select all
pts+ 1998- Min RAPM
1604 LeBron James 10049 7.66
919 Tim Duncan 9370 4.71
902 Manu Ginobili 6075 7.13
691 Draymond Green 4332 7.66
532 Kevin Durant 5598 4.56
490 Kevin Garnett 5158 4.56
436 Kobe Bryant 8508 2.46
425 Shaquille O'Neal 6382 3.20
403 Dwyane Wade 6697 2.89
398 Kawhi Leonard 3806 5.02
pts+ 1998- Min RAPM
383 Stephen Curry 4193 4.38
378 Ray Allen 6064 2.99
368 James Harden 4074 4.34
364 Robert Horry 4243 4.12
353 Chauncey Billups 5321 3.18
332 Ben Wallace 4524 3.52
313 Derek Fisher 6822 2.20
310 Jason Kidd 5881 2.53
301 Dirk Nowitzki 5895 2.45
289 Tayshaun Prince 4977 2.79
That's mostly perennial allstars and dynastic dudes, plus Horry and Fisher.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:49 pm
by eminence
I'd probably count Fisher/Horry as dynastic dudes, Horry just bounced around a bit.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:21 am
by Mike G
Trying to re-create RAPM by looking up BPM on b-r.com and RPM on espn.com, and assuming RPM is the avg of BPM and RAPM. If so (and I assume this isn't precisely correct), then rapm = RPM*2 - BPM
Shadow's RAPM doesn't exactly concur with some of these reconstituted rapm, nor does it have any consistent relation with BPM and RPM.
Steph Curry's RS BPM was 6.3 this year, and his RPM was 6.9 -- indicating that his RAPM was higher than 6.9. For his RPM to be the avg of BPM and RAPM, the latter would be about 7.5
Code: Select all
GSW BPM RPM rapm? shad
Curry 6.3 6.91 7.5 5.80
Durant 4.3 4.92 5.5 5.49
Green 2.0 3.54 5.1 2.18
Looney 2.1 3.43 4.8 2.45
Iguodala 1.9 2.53 3.2 2.33
Cousins 3.6 2.50 1.4 -0.33
Thompson -0.8 -0.58 -0.4 -0.43
Jerebko 0.0 -0.19 -0.4 -0.44
Livingston -1.5 -2.51 -3.5 0.40
McKinnie -2.5 -3.07 -3.6 -0.75
Jones 3.0 -0.50 -4.0 -0.02
Cook -2.9 -3.77 -4.6 3.17
Bell -0.4 -3.45 -6.5 -2.02
Column 2 is the avg of 1 and 3.
What is the flaw in my logic here? I realize that RPM may not be exactly midway between BPM and RAPM; but it shouldn't be possible that Draymond Green's RPM could be higher than both his RAPM and BPM.
Same for Looney, Curry, ... And what's with Cook?
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:58 am
by eminence
Is RPM still updating in the playoffs?
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:28 pm
by J.E.
eminence wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:58 am
Is RPM still updating in the playoffs?
Yes
What is the flaw in my logic here? I realize that RPM may not be exactly midway between BPM and RAPM;
"rapm = RPM*2 - BPM"
is just too much of an oversimplification. Probably mostly for two reasons
- Because of its inherent regression to 0, (single season) RAPM is unlikely to give the super elite players the high ratings they deserve. Playoff only RAPM has sample size issues that go beyond that
- the 'statistical plus minus' I feed into RPM is different from BPM
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:50 pm
by Mike G
Thanks, JE
So it seems some players may have radically changed 2019 RPM due to playoff performance.
Are playoffs weighed more heavily than the RS? Are recent games more impactful than early season?
Was BPM ever a component of RPM?
Was this a misconception all along? Did anyone but myself have this impression?
Is there exactly one RAPM for a player, regardless of who calculates it? Are Shadow's numbers the same as yours?
And what is with Quinn Cook? Does he have RAPM = +3.2 and RPM = -3.8 ?
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:26 pm
by shadow
Quinn Cook had a -3.2 RAPM in the regular season in my version:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:43 pm
by J.E.
Mike G wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:50 pm
Are playoffs weighed more heavily than the RS?
No
Was BPM ever a component of RPM?
No
Was this a misconception all along?
It appears so
Did anyone but myself have this impression?
Daniel and I both built our own SPM (statistical plus minus) years ago around the same time. Daniel published his and it became BPM. I didn't publish mine, except when it was in the very early stages. Given that mine and his are in the same family of metrics (SPM) I guess people assumed I was using BPM when I said I was using an SPM prior
Is there exactly one RAPM for a player, regardless of who calculates it?
In a world where everyone works with the exact same data, yes. Chances are that's not the case, but you'd want to see at least a very high correlation
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:18 pm
by shadow
For the 2017-18 regular season my RAPM had a correlation of 0.98 with rd11490's. For the 2016-17 season (reg+playoffs) it had a correlation of 0.97 with JE's.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:45 pm
by Mike G
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:21 pm
by DSMok1
To follow up:
The RAPM "part" of a combined RPM-style metric with a good SPM prior will not look at ALL like vanilla RAPM (which regresses towards 0).
Rather, it will look more like "what is showing up in the PbP Lineup data that is not showing up in the SPM already". For many (perhaps most) players, that value may not be large. It would take a lot of lineup data to shift a player far away from a good SPM prior.
Re: 2019 playoffs
Posted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:52 pm
by Crow
Raptors win title. 5th oldest on minutes weighted average age (during regular season). Young by historical standards but still almost half a year older than the youngest in modern times. With Gasol's arrival, the effective age went up.
Which contenders get older to get into the range of titlewinners? Which stay the same or get younger and ignore the historical record? Among those 'too young" by historical standards: Bucks, Sixers, Celtics, Thunder...