Brown, least positive team on the court +/- in top 9 of rotation. Holiday second lowest. Holiday lowest raw on / off, Brown second lowest.
Brown and Holiday appear in some of the weakest big minute pairs, including together. Horford and Hauser also show up in a couple.
Celtics comments
Re: Celtics comments
Jaylen Brown's Darko projection slid all last season and it continued for first few months of this season. Since then it has had two modest upward moves with slippage in between.
Playoffs will be very important for him and all Celtics. Next season too.
Fwiw (probably not as much as Darko), Brown's BPM estimate has declined 3 straight years to just +1.2.
Even if most still like him and in the context, was it worth the biggest contract yet in NBA history? Who else would have actually given him that much or even close?
Which was better, someone questioning the Brown contract or nobody doing it?
An eventual trade of Brown remains a possibility imo, if no title, if an acceptable deal could be fashioned.
With Brown - Tatum on court together last season, team performed 22% lower on net margin than all other time last season and is doing 16.5% less well than rest of time this season, both in large samples. They did modestly better on than off in last playoffs (amounting to a fraction of a point better on average), but it wasn't enough.
Team with Tatum / no Brown is performing more than 50% better than with both. Team minutes with neither on court are 20% better than with both. Brown, no Tatum is 15% worse than with both and 25% worse than without either.
Playoffs will be very important for him and all Celtics. Next season too.
Fwiw (probably not as much as Darko), Brown's BPM estimate has declined 3 straight years to just +1.2.
Even if most still like him and in the context, was it worth the biggest contract yet in NBA history? Who else would have actually given him that much or even close?
Which was better, someone questioning the Brown contract or nobody doing it?
An eventual trade of Brown remains a possibility imo, if no title, if an acceptable deal could be fashioned.
With Brown - Tatum on court together last season, team performed 22% lower on net margin than all other time last season and is doing 16.5% less well than rest of time this season, both in large samples. They did modestly better on than off in last playoffs (amounting to a fraction of a point better on average), but it wasn't enough.
Team with Tatum / no Brown is performing more than 50% better than with both. Team minutes with neither on court are 20% better than with both. Brown, no Tatum is 15% worse than with both and 25% worse than without either.
Re: Celtics comments
Starters are great together. Starters without Holiday are 60% better. Starters without Porzingis, half as strong. Starters without D White, mildly negative. Starters without Brown, only 10% less strong.
No starters on court, still almost +5.
No starters on court, still almost +5.
Re: Celtics comments
Starters without Holiday are still almost 55% better than with. With could have tested more than 182 minutes, if concerned about the comparison... but guess not that important to them.
Re: Celtics comments
Who was able and willing to offer Holiday as much or near as much as Celtics? That he would take?
Orlando? Brooklyn? Lakers? Possible for Orlando but I still doubt it there or for the other two at that price / length.
Someone else will almost certainly him eventually.
Orlando? Brooklyn? Lakers? Possible for Orlando but I still doubt it there or for the other two at that price / length.
Someone else will almost certainly him eventually.
Re: Celtics comments
Celtics 3rd most used lineup tonight, tested 34 minutes in regular season. 5th most used, tested 26 minutes. 6th most used, tested 24 minutes... all 3 disasters tonight.
Would be kinda cool to know more about lineups used in playoffs.
391 lineups used in regular season. Only 2 over 1.5 minutes per game. Coaching... organizational direction...
Would be kinda cool to know more about lineups used in playoffs.
391 lineups used in regular season. Only 2 over 1.5 minutes per game. Coaching... organizational direction...
Re: Celtics comments
Holiday so far in playoffs, 40% TS%, worst of career, and a BPM of -0.7 (barely 2nd worst of career).
Re: Celtics comments
Celtics in last season under Stevens didn't get to FT line much and fouled a lot. Under Udoka for 1 season, FT rate went from bad to near average and fouling rate significantly reduced. Under Mazulla FT rate declined again while fouling rate became even more elite.
Mazzulla, halfway between the two previous.
Stevens used 2 lineups over 6 minutes per game for season only twice in 8 years. The replacement coaches were just short of that mark twice before Mazzulla went to just under 8 last season.
Celtics go to 6 straight seasons with actual wins not exceeding expected wins. Coaching, team behavior in close games or blowouts and / or randomness.
Down to 7th lowest on 4th quarter scoring in regular season. Barely above average on fast break points. At the rim shot frequency near bottom in regular season and playoffs.
Went from 1 elite factor (top 10) under weak last season under Stevens to 3 to 5 to 4. 10 spot drop in defensive rebounding to 11th. Came back in plsyoffs though.
Close to elite is good too but how many elites do title winners average? Something to check.
Answer: 3.3 factors in last 10 seasons. The most was bubble Lakers at 5. Least was tie between Nuggets and 1 version of Warriors at just 2.
Tatum in the clutch was poor last regular season (and at other times).
Mazzulla, halfway between the two previous.
Stevens used 2 lineups over 6 minutes per game for season only twice in 8 years. The replacement coaches were just short of that mark twice before Mazzulla went to just under 8 last season.
Celtics go to 6 straight seasons with actual wins not exceeding expected wins. Coaching, team behavior in close games or blowouts and / or randomness.
Down to 7th lowest on 4th quarter scoring in regular season. Barely above average on fast break points. At the rim shot frequency near bottom in regular season and playoffs.
Went from 1 elite factor (top 10) under weak last season under Stevens to 3 to 5 to 4. 10 spot drop in defensive rebounding to 11th. Came back in plsyoffs though.
Close to elite is good too but how many elites do title winners average? Something to check.
Answer: 3.3 factors in last 10 seasons. The most was bubble Lakers at 5. Least was tie between Nuggets and 1 version of Warriors at just 2.
Tatum in the clutch was poor last regular season (and at other times).
Re: Celtics comments
3-0.
5 strong factors, 3 weak ones.
Almost all lineups and sub-lineups working.
Not much more to day at this point. Will watch the factors.
5 strong factors, 3 weak ones.
Almost all lineups and sub-lineups working.
Not much more to day at this point. Will watch the factors.
Re: Celtics comments
Now 7 factors in top 10 and a 15th at worst.
Jaylen Brown at -1.7 BPM, worst in 6 years, -2.4 from last season.
Holiday at -1, lowest since rookie season, 3 pts worse than last season final.
Jaylen Brown at -1.7 BPM, worst in 6 years, -2.4 from last season.
Holiday at -1, lowest since rookie season, 3 pts worse than last season final.
Re: Celtics comments
Brown and Holidays modestly improved on BPM but still -0.2 and -0.1 respectively. Brown's BPM is still worst in 7 years, Holday's worst in 15.
Re: Celtics comments
Holiday started last year slowly, continuing a very long tradition of doing so.
In Oct/Nov for 222 career games: ORtg/DRtg of 105/110 and 15 pts/G @ .526 TS%
After that about 109/109 and close to 17 Pt/G w .550 TS%
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... 01/splits/
Brown is also a regular slow starter: Oct/Nov 106/109, .553, 17.7 -vs- 109/110, .572, 18.8 total
In Oct/Nov for 222 career games: ORtg/DRtg of 105/110 and 15 pts/G @ .526 TS%
After that about 109/109 and close to 17 Pt/G w .550 TS%
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... 01/splits/
Brown is also a regular slow starter: Oct/Nov 106/109, .553, 17.7 -vs- 109/110, .572, 18.8 total
Re: Celtics comments
Holiday, worst Darko change level in the league.
Horford, still positive but lowest BPM since rookie season.
Brown barely positive on BPM.
Pushing toward halfway.
Celtics relying on some others far more than previously for impact and maintenance. Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser.
Horford, still positive but lowest BPM since rookie season.
Brown barely positive on BPM.
Pushing toward halfway.
Celtics relying on some others far more than previously for impact and maintenance. Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser.