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Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:59 pm
by v-zero
It's now looking like this is Embiid's to lose. Barring a stretch of poor games for him I am doubtful it won't go his way.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 11:48 pm
by Mike G
I just hope he doesn't try too hard for this MVP award. It seems he really lays himself out for some layups, and he's having career best minutes and consecutive games now. It's great to see him play without apparent fear of injury; but I thought that about Anthony Davis, too. And Durant, and Steph.
Sixers should be looking for postseason health, and awards will fall where they will. Last year he missed 2 playoff games, they fell behind Miami 0-2, and never recovered.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:13 am
by v-zero
They should absolutely be looking to rest him. I don't know what their front office is thinking in terms of concerns over seeding, and I am dead certain that Embiid is very keen to keep playing and take this MVP. He has never looked better, not to my memory. Against the Pacers the other night he was completely unguardable once he got into rhythm, and showed no doubt in what he wanted to do.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2023 1:04 am
by Mike G
In the last two weeks, Joker has sucked up about 9% of the 'other' prob%
Code: Select all
3-14 3-28 mvp?
.632 .675 Jokic
.121 .113 Embiid
.078 .071 Giannis
.049 .032 Harden
.034 .029 Luka
.028 .026 Tatum
.025 .026 Sabonis
.010 .010 Butler
.011 .009 Shai
.013 .008 Lillard
I think Embiid was up to about 16.4% a week ago. He's had one great game, 2 sub-par, and a no-show, as Sixers lose 4 of 5.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Thu Mar 30, 2023 8:26 pm
by Mike G
Final espn straw poll results. (100 voters)
Code: Select all
pts player 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
790 Embiid 40 45 15
788 Jokic 42 39 19
612 Giannis 18 15 64 2 1
292 Tatum 0 1 2 90 5
_37 Luka 0 0 0 2 31
"There was snapback from Jokic's big lead in MVP odds, as multiple straw poll voters expressed that there is a higher bar to clear for a third straight MVP."
[Some who earlier voted for Jokic have now unvoted for him.]
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:35 pm
by Crow
Projection is different from this season MVP but fwiw Darko has the 3 leading MVP candidates as top 3 projections while DRIP has them 6th, 7th and 13th. DRIP has Durant #1 on projection, Curry 2, James 3. Raised eyebrow on DRIP.
Not sure how they differ on playoff weighting. That would a reasonable rationale for DRIP though I don't know if it is.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Apr 02, 2023 11:53 am
by v-zero
Crow wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:35 pm
Projection is different from this season MVP but fwiw Darko has the 3 leading MVP candidates as top 3 projections while DRIP has them 6th, 7th and 13th. DRIP has Durant #1 on projection, Curry 2, James 3. Raised eyebrow on DRIP.
Not sure how they differ on playoff weighting. That would a reasonable rationale for DRIP though I don't know if it is.
I have Jokic 1, Embiid 2, Tatum 3, Kawhi 4, Curry 5, Giannis 6. I think my numbers aren't generous enough to Giannis, but it is very tight from 3rd to 6th.
Durant and LeBron are both outside my top 10 by a fair margin. LeBron especially has definitely declined in his impact, even if not in the box score. And plus minus centric stats have never been a friend to KD.
About the only thing I like about DRIP is their scaling, which to my eye looks far more appropriate than the sillier models that suggest a player is worth +10.
Edit: looking further at DRIP...I think it must be broken. There are some absolutely bonkers impact ratings there.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Apr 02, 2023 2:43 pm
by Crow
What are some of the bonkers DRIP impact projections to you?
I just checked Sabonis and Haliburton. DRIP has Sabonis 61, Haliburton 24. Darko has them 71.5 and 47.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Apr 02, 2023 4:58 pm
by v-zero
I don't mean to throw shade, I genuinely think there must be a programming error or the model has been fed some bad data. I have looked at DRIP before and thought it looked reasonable. I also am aware that Walker has been productive and is respected within the community.
However, focusing on the top 25 alone, in my opinion/the opinion of the models I work with:
LeBron is too high, Davis is too high, Embiid is too low, Harden is too high, Kyrie is too high, Towns is too high, Tatum is too low, Haliburton is too high, Ingram is too high.
Notable (in my opinion) absences from the top 25:
Jrue Holiday, Immanuel Quickley, Devin Booker, Darius Garland, Steven Adams, Alex Caruso, Jarrett Allen.
Obviously I am sure some I have listed will be controversial selections. It is interesting, maybe, to note that all of the players I have listed as notable absences tend to show up far better in plus-minus variants than in box score metrics, which suggests to me that the bug or issue I am seeing with DRIP might be an over-reliance on the box score and inadequate use of plus-minus data.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Apr 02, 2023 5:47 pm
by Crow
Thanks for the reply listings.
N Walker reportedly went to work for Warriors about a year ago.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Apr 02, 2023 6:16 pm
by v-zero
Indeed, perhaps in his absence it hasn't been maintained properly, or has been amended (like RPM) so that it favours box score guys over the more unusual (but I think correct) impact guys.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2023 2:39 am
by Mike G
Most teams are resting their starters (or tanking), so here are the nearly-final rankings in some summary stats.
Ranked by the sum of the square roots of their (5) ranks. Includes everyone in the top 15 in any category.
Code: Select all
T2 player tm PER WS ws48 BPM VORP min PER WS ws/48 BPM VORP
5.0 Jokic Den 1 1 1 1 1 2296 31.7 14.8 .310 13.1 8.8
8.3 Embiid Phl 2 4 3 2 3 2284 31.5 12.3 .258 9.1 6.4
9.6 Butler Mia 6 3 2 4 4 2138 27.6 12.3 .277 8.7 5.7
11.0 Luka Dal 4 7 10 3 2 2378 28.8 10.2 .206 9.0 6.6
12.0 Shai OKC 7 5 5 7 5 2416 27.2 11.4 .225 7.2 5.6
13.0 Giannis Mil 3 13 9 5 6 2024 29.0 8.7 .207 8.5 5.4
14.3 Sabonis Sac 15 2 6 15 7 2717 23.4 12.5 .221 5.8 5.3
14.6 Lillard Por 8 9 7 9 10 2107 26.8 9.2 .210 7.1 4.9
15.2 Davis LAL 5 14 4 11 15 1837 28.0 8.7 .229 6.4 3.9
17.7 Tatum Bos 13 6 22 17 8 2712 23.7 10.4 .185 5.5 5.1
T2 player tm PER WS ws48 BPM VORP min PER WS ws/48 BPM VORP
18.8 H'burton Ind 14 23 16 8 12 1883 23.6 7.7 .195 7.2 4.4
19.1 Mitchell Cle 18 11 26 12 9 2432 22.9 8.9 .176 6.3 5.0
19.4 Curry GSW 11 33 21 6 11 1886 23.9 7.3 .186 7.4 4.5
20.3 Durant tot 9 41 16 10 14 1672 25.9 6.8 .195 7.1 3.9
21.3 Harden Phl 25 17 19 18 13 2135 21.6 8.3 .187 5.3 4.0
21.7 Kawhi LAC 12 40 15 13 20 1683 23.9 6.9 .196 6.1 3.4
22.8 Brunson NYK 28 12 25 22 19 2379 21.2 8.8 .177 3.9 3.5
24.0 Claxton Brk 30 10 18 31 31 2236 20.8 9.1 .194 3.0 2.8
25.0 J Allen Cle 37 8 11 40 42 2208 19.9 9.5 .206 2.4 2.4
26.8 LeBron LAL 10 66 58 14 17 1891 24.0 5.5 .139 6.1 3.8
T2 player tm PER WS ws48 BPM VORP min PER WS ws/48 BPM VORP
27.4 Kessler Uta 26 37 13 32 48 1703 21.6 7.1 .200 2.9 2.1
28.5 Capela Atl 20 35 12 44 64 1698 22.2 7.2 .203 2.2 1.8
29.7 Looney GSW 62 18 8 50 59 1907 17.7 8.3 .208 1.9 1.9
31.5 Mobley Cle 58 15 40 54 40 2703 17.9 8.6 .152 1.7 2.5
32.7 Robinson NYK 54 46 14 43 68 1564 18.7 6.5 .199 2.4 1.7
All-Stars not making the cut: Morant, Fox, Markkanen, Adebayo, DeRozan, Siakam, Holiday, Irving, A Edwards, J Brown, Randle, George