With the weirdness of Hayward not shooting, no one seems to have noticed that his on the court minutes were the best performing for team.
Wiggins 2nd best and held to 15 minutes per game. Giddey the same and held to 18 minutes.
Dort the mildest of the positives. Jaylin Williams awful team results. Joe, in between these on the court but awful on / off.
Plenty of issues with minutes distribution.
Strong top 6. Room for review beyond that and even within that 6.
Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Holmgren regular season, lowest avg pts against Mavs, but overperformed that and season average.
Vs. Twolves, 5th lowest pts and 3rd lowest rebounding.
So concerns but might be ok.
Vs. Twolves, 5th lowest pts and 3rd lowest rebounding.
So concerns but might be ok.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
SGA - Joe went from great in regular season to terrible in playoffs. Still fine with other starters but with Jaylin Williams went to super horrendous.
In just 50 minutes, the 3 biggest minute Jaylin Williams lineups lost by 42 points. Way more than enough in round 2 to lose that series.
GM and Coach thought JWill was enough for the playoff role. By individual stats he looks alright, better than alright.
But something(s) apparently went WRONG for Thunder and / or really right for Dallas in those minutes.
Will look further and try to sort it out.
In just 50 minutes, the 3 biggest minute Jaylin Williams lineups lost by 42 points. Way more than enough in round 2 to lose that series.
GM and Coach thought JWill was enough for the playoff role. By individual stats he looks alright, better than alright.
But something(s) apparently went WRONG for Thunder and / or really right for Dallas in those minutes.
Will look further and try to sort it out.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
The traditional starting lineup was -34 pts / 100p against Mavs.
Roll into next playoffs that way? I wouldn't.
5 biggest minute alt lineups with 4 starters and 1 subsitute for Giddey were all positive or in one case neutral.
That's a sign.
Giddey, Dort and Wallace from the 3 worst offensive and defensive ratings against Mavs. That's 3 more signs. Giddey and Dort barely worse than team average defensive ratings, much lauded for a few plays Wallace was well below.
It was SGA show with a few others playing alright but not well and then at least 4 not playing well.
Tremendous amount of improvement needed.
Roll into next playoffs that way? I wouldn't.
5 biggest minute alt lineups with 4 starters and 1 subsitute for Giddey were all positive or in one case neutral.
That's a sign.
Giddey, Dort and Wallace from the 3 worst offensive and defensive ratings against Mavs. That's 3 more signs. Giddey and Dort barely worse than team average defensive ratings, much lauded for a few plays Wallace was well below.
It was SGA show with a few others playing alright but not well and then at least 4 not playing well.
Tremendous amount of improvement needed.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder played original starters 10 minutes per game in regular season, went to 15 min / gm in playoffs until it went to pot against Mavs. But it was 4 games at 7.5 min at worse than -30 / 100p before the change. Change after game 2 was an option, though an unlikely one for any Coach. Fans were on it, including myself, but they dont listen to fans. Might have lead to a victory in game 3 though and forced a game 7.
But not what Coach D did.
Let's see plan and speed of adjustments next time.
But not what Coach D did.
Let's see plan and speed of adjustments next time.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Who were the weakest from 3 against the Mavs? Holmgren at 22%, Giddey at 19%. Dort and Wallace were just a bit below lg avg.
On efg% and ts%, Dort was lowest, followed by subpar from Giddey and Wallace.
What did you learn from that Mr. Presti?
And from Derrick Lively's performance and the deadline acquistions?
Is JDub or Holmgren enough of a 2nd star? Both near 20% usage while Giddey pulled 25%. Any coaching happening there? Dort at 16%. Should it have been 10-12%? Joe at 15%. Should it have been 20-22%? I'd say so. Before and after the experience.
If K Wallace barely played, do you keep him? Do you tweak the coaching decision?
On efg% and ts%, Dort was lowest, followed by subpar from Giddey and Wallace.
What did you learn from that Mr. Presti?
And from Derrick Lively's performance and the deadline acquistions?
Is JDub or Holmgren enough of a 2nd star? Both near 20% usage while Giddey pulled 25%. Any coaching happening there? Dort at 16%. Should it have been 10-12%? Joe at 15%. Should it have been 20-22%? I'd say so. Before and after the experience.
If K Wallace barely played, do you keep him? Do you tweak the coaching decision?
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
If they don't change the starting lineup, they are denying that the Mavs series was a meaningful lesson, after saying it would be.
Giddey is the focus of attention but Dort by BPM was more negative on offense than positive on defense. He has negative BPM for every season, regular season and playoffs. This playoffs was his least negative but what is the standard to judge a starter by for a contender? What does he need to do next season and playoffs to maintain that spot?
Opponents scored 3 pts more in playoffs with him on vs. off and team scored 2pts less on average. Probably worse or much worse against Mavs.
Team defensive results are more important than individual details.
Giddey is the focus of attention but Dort by BPM was more negative on offense than positive on defense. He has negative BPM for every season, regular season and playoffs. This playoffs was his least negative but what is the standard to judge a starter by for a contender? What does he need to do next season and playoffs to maintain that spot?
Opponents scored 3 pts more in playoffs with him on vs. off and team scored 2pts less on average. Probably worse or much worse against Mavs.
Team defensive results are more important than individual details.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Free agents:
At PF, choices include Toppin, Bol Bol.
At C, doubt they compete for or get Hartenstein. Other options include Bitadze, Tillman and Jalen Smith.
If they'd use them, appropriately.
At PF, choices include Toppin, Bol Bol.
At C, doubt they compete for or get Hartenstein. Other options include Bitadze, Tillman and Jalen Smith.
If they'd use them, appropriately.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
The Darko curves for Giddey and Dort are upward, decent.
You can criticize fit with starters more easily than average impact. They will have trade value to some. Comes down to what you can get, possibly in combination with other assets. Consolidate on now.
You can criticize fit with starters more easily than average impact. They will have trade value to some. Comes down to what you can get, possibly in combination with other assets. Consolidate on now.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Against Mavs, SGA has negative pairs with all other starters except Holmgren.
Time with JDub just as bad as time with Giddey at almost -13pts / 100p.
With Dort, barely negative.
Worked with Wallace and Wiggins when they played.
What lessons, if any, are you taking from this Presti?
Easy to talk about importance of experience and learning but what did you learn?
With / without data shows it was disaster with Holmgren and thus with Jaylin Williams. What did you learn Sam and what will you DO? Decide based on playoff stats or stick with design choice / happy teammate? Results or vibes? YMCA facilitator or title warlord?
Time with JDub just as bad as time with Giddey at almost -13pts / 100p.
With Dort, barely negative.
Worked with Wallace and Wiggins when they played.
What lessons, if any, are you taking from this Presti?
Easy to talk about importance of experience and learning but what did you learn?
With / without data shows it was disaster with Holmgren and thus with Jaylin Williams. What did you learn Sam and what will you DO? Decide based on playoff stats or stick with design choice / happy teammate? Results or vibes? YMCA facilitator or title warlord?
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
The traditional starters worked in round 1 but not round 2. The second most used lineup worked. The 100 munute regular season test was not enough to have high statistical confidence in the move, but it did. 3rd and 4th most used were alright but again not tested enough. 5th thru 7th lineups turned out absolutely horrible. Of course not tested enough in regular season. That was more than enough to lose. -42 from those inadequately tested, stinkers.
Winners usually win with 5 most used lineups. But apparently you can lose with the second 5. I'd want far better test of 10 lineups and far less dinking around.
Winners usually win with 5 most used lineups. But apparently you can lose with the second 5. I'd want far better test of 10 lineups and far less dinking around.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Any internal critique, regrets or consequences for massive failure to adequately test more than 1 lineup?
I'd say very likely no, probably not and absolutely not.
I'd say very likely no, probably not and absolutely not.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Why did Mavs do so much better against Thunder than Celtics?
Player experience, design, coaching...
Player experience, design, coaching...
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder in playoffs, higher than average long 2 frequency. Amazing fg% from 10-16 ft, but ranked very low from 16-23 ft. Something that probably should change or should have been coached out previously in playoffs.
But long 2s help SGA and JDub get big numbers and look like stars and Presti is big on creating stars who get their numbers to look smart. (17 seasons, no titles, 1 Finals game win.)
Dort is the type Presti saw himself as as a player, but Presti also loves the star / superstar perimeter.
Holmgren is finally the arrival of something like the Duncan. Something like.
Offense will need to be much better in future playoffs than the near average this time. 2 Stars shooting better and / or less. More Holmgren. Better shooting role players, better role players at almost everything on offense (besides ball security) and both types of rebounding.
Running it back without notable changes does not look as promising to me as it does to many. Presti certainly has tools to try to adjust. How much does he use them?
But long 2s help SGA and JDub get big numbers and look like stars and Presti is big on creating stars who get their numbers to look smart. (17 seasons, no titles, 1 Finals game win.)
Dort is the type Presti saw himself as as a player, but Presti also loves the star / superstar perimeter.
Holmgren is finally the arrival of something like the Duncan. Something like.
Offense will need to be much better in future playoffs than the near average this time. 2 Stars shooting better and / or less. More Holmgren. Better shooting role players, better role players at almost everything on offense (besides ball security) and both types of rebounding.
Running it back without notable changes does not look as promising to me as it does to many. Presti certainly has tools to try to adjust. How much does he use them?