APBRmetrics

Lineup concentration:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1804308426610348292

On recent Thunder thoughts:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1804487485684424817

Wallace instead of Giddey is a big downgrade in fta rate and Caruso only a modest improvement to the existing weak team rate.

Draft day 1 could have been better, could have been worse.

2nd round pick? Some names would be worthwhile.

2 games against Celtics last season. Porzingis goes for 27 and 34. Celtics crush on offensive rebounds. 1 win, 1 huge loss.

These issues remain for eventual addressing.

Hartenstein's defensive rebounding and block rates
fell by about 30% in last playoffs vs. regular season and BPM by 2/3rds.

How much will Hartenstein play with Holmgren? Assume at least 16 minutes per game and up to 24. Assume Hartenstein guards most centers.

On some recent moves:

https://x.com/SteveThunderfan/status/18 ... 2532368536

By 82games.com data, fwiw, the by far best position for Jalen Williams individually and for team was SG... but it almost never happened. Time at PF was estimated to see his least shots and points and most opponent points scored. Shots, points and eFG% were all greatly heightened at SG. SF time was midway between PF and SG individually but way worse / moderately negative at team level. Position assigned and results both highly dependent on who else is on or off.

Roster design is such that SG time will continue to almost never happen. Will SF become more common? We'll eventually see if it does and if it remains a problem at team level. If Hartenstein / Holmgren play together, it would make it likely than JDub will play more SF.

At PF worked well at individual and team level, so maybe not a good idea to tinker; but it looks like they will, purposely selected and rando dink thrown out there.


By 82games estimates, SGA did way way better at SG than PG. The way position is determined by height and / or weight there means that that at PG time was probably with Giddey and at SG was with anyone else. But will want to check back how it looks with Giddey gone.

The question of whether SGA is better at PG or SG or with a PG or SG in general outside Giddey needs further review and testing. When Chris Paul was on team, SGA was fine at SG but way better at SF, either with Dort or in the 3 PG lineup with Paul and Schroder. 3 and 4 guard lineups have been dominant for Thunder but 3 PG was somewhat questionable with JDub or Wallace as the 3rd. With Topic will wait awhile. With Dillon Jones may or may not qualify as similar.


Wonder how Holmgren position information will display with Hartenstein and what it will show. Other sources might be needed to track the together and apart data more clearly.

Thunder not mentioned in recent Markkanen pursuit update. No mention of Thunder pursuit of DeRozan.


No mention of anyone pursuing Hayward, the player with the highest salary from last season to not be declared as a signee.

Just one game and not an important opponent at this time, but Wemby's 40 pts, 20 rebs game in late March was against Hartenstein. He had really low rebounds in that game.

Based on average performance on Darko, 7 of the Thunder's coming rotation are in the most preferred defensive role of 3 types of role (mostly point of attack and anchor big but also wingstopper).

Just 1 are in a most prefered offensive role (SGA, shot creator). No one in rotation qualifies by bballindex criteria as primary ball handler. (Topic and Mitchell might later.)

The main player who did not belong to a most favored role on either side of the ball was JDub.

Did not notably improve the offense this off-season by roster moves, at least based on most preferred types. Internal development or coaching? We'll eventually see rs and playoff offenses.

Thunder core 3 lineup performance data:
https://x.com/jasehoops/status/1811096834137542832

Future contracts

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1811543359300993154

Only about 70 minutes test of Wallace with starters (except Giddey) in regular season + playoffs.

This season TBD, but no reasonable explanation for the weak test.

By LEBRON, Giddey was 4th of 7 with biggest minutes last season, with Joe below and Dort and Wallace well below.