Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

6-7 to 6-9 "basketball players" are rarer than 6-3 to 6-6 guys. Assume the former are needed, especially in playoffs, but we'll see how small ball fares then.

[Crow]

Thunder lose when the defense is well below average.

Not a surprise, but that is the pattern.

[Crow]

Thunder has most blowout wins
(10+ pts) but is only team without a close win (3 or less), yet.

Last season they were 3 way tied for 2nd on blowout wins but also tied for 3rd on close win rate.

[Crow]

Dieng should probably cut 3pta rate in half, if not improved in next 10-20 games played.

[Crow]

At 3-3 against Sagarin top 10 so far, Thunder have the lowest mark on that among his top 4 teams. Tied for 6th overall.

3rd best against top 16.

As of now, it would be Nuggets in 1st round. Barely not top 10.
Who would they play in 2nd round, if they get there? As of now it would be winner of Warriors - Griz. Warriors with best record against top 10, Griz weak so far on that. Hope for Warriors to shift up or down.

[Crow]

Thunder heavily based on opponent turnovers. The average rank of last 5 champs was 16th. 2 were strong but that isn't a lot compared to some other factors. Every one was strong on own efg% with a average of about 2nd. Thunder currently 15th.

On average playoff turnover rate is about 3% less than regular season. In last 5 playoffs, it was 3 lower, 1 even, 1 higher. In the Finals, only 1 team had or was forced into high turnovers. 2022 Celtics pressured by Warriors team strong on that factor. So it can happen but it is the exception.

Thunder in last playoffs forced more turnovers than in regular season but it was pretty massively more from weak Pelicans and well less than average from Mavs.

9 "contenders" have a better efg% than Thunder. Warriors slightly lower, Magic and Rockets way lower. Sixers too, if you count them.

[Mike G]

On average playoff turnover rate is about 3% less than regular season. In last 5 playoffs, it was 3 lower, 1 even, 1 higher...

Is this for all teams or just for those teams in the playoffs?

[Crow]

The rates cited are for everyone involved in each phase. So it is 30 compared to 16 and some part of the change is attributable to the change in average team quality.

16 could be compared to 16. The decline is slightly less at 2.5%.

It is only a fraction of a turnover. Probably doesn't make a difference most of the time... but maybe it could in one or a couple crucial games.


.

[Crow]

245 lineups used in 24 games.

Starters with Hartenstein 50% better than with Holmgren.

9 lineups over 1 minute per game for season. Probably T won't maintain but we'll see. 3 last season.

221 for less than 10 minutes use.

Lineups with meaningful minutes yet: zero. Some teams might have 1-2. Thunder might eventually get 1-2.

[Crow]

Instead of Dieng, Thunder could have had Mark Williams, Eason or Kessler or others.

[Crow]

This is just a rough first draft but take best big minute lineups and slightly modify them for minute feasibility, you could have this 8 lineup rotation;

SGA D JDub Holm IH 12 minutes
CW Car JDub Holm IH 6
SGA CW D JDub IH 6
SGA CW D KW Holm 6
SGA J D KW Holm 4
SGA J D JD IH 4
SGA Car J W Holm 4
AM J W JDub KW 6

SGA 36
Wallace 18
Mitchell 6
Dort 32
Caruso 10
J Williams 34
Joe 16
Wiggins 10
K Williams 18
Holmgren 32
Hartenstein 28

If everyone is available, some will play less minutes or play less guys.


With more data, shift minutes between lineups, eliminate or add. Change a player or two. Plenty of ways to adjust as you learn more. And you will learn more and probably do better overall than guessing on 200 lineups or eventually 600-800.

But no one does this level of concentration or close in NBA. In college or internationally? Something to search for or be informed of.

[Crow]

I could / should improve this lineup rotation but it would take time. And need incentive.

[Crow]

There is hope / expectation by Caruso to get a 4 year deal at around $20 million per year.

Presti may be thinking 3 years guaranteed, perhaps at $13 mil / yr. I Joe money, 3 yrs and then team option.

It very well might go to summer free agency.

Part of it is minutes played / minutes expected. 20 minutes or less players generally don't get big money.

Caruso is 74th on Darko. Peaked a year ago. Pretty major break below his trend line this season, because of offense / shooting.

Will they work it out? More likely than not but not a sure thing.

Would I give him 4 years / $80 million? No. Not with this start, not in this depth of talent at position and draft assets. Some or many will not get the big payday at OKC or there for long.

[Crow]

For the top 5 teams by SRS, Thunder are best in group on 3 factors, 2nd worst on one and worst on 4. That is a very mixed set not only in league but against the best.

Celtics and Griz best on 2 with a 2 best. Cavs with 1 best factor and 2nd. Knicks with a 2nd.

[Crow]

Dieng is a failure so far as a shooter. Defense and rebounding has improved but that isn't enough.