Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

Hartenstein has been good overall but:

eFG% and TS%, 2nd lowest in 5 years
FT rate, lowest of career
OR%, 2nd lowest of career
A/TO barely 1.1
Steal and block rates, both career lows, down notably from last season
Hasn't not made a 3.
OBPM, 2nd lowest in 4 years
Overall BPM down about 15%.


On the plus side

By far best DR%.


Hadn't really thought about it before, but this is his 6th team in 7 years.

[Crow]

Opponent efg% is currently 49.9%.

[Crow]

Dieng is barely hanging on to 12th man spot, the little that it matters. Aided by Dillion Jones playing quite poorly.

I don't see a bright future yet or maybe any future here. But give it another month or another year?

[Crow]

Team is scrappy.

[Crow]

January was relatively good for Dieng though small sample and probably lacking significance. He has 1 good shooting month per season.

January was best boxscore month to date for Jones.

Good month for Carson and Jaylin Williams as well.

Great month for Joe. Best month yet for Caruso. And Wiggins. Great month for Dort.

Not so good for K Williams. By the boxscore probably least good month for Hartenstein, though fine. Middle for JDub. Best for Wallace. Fine of course for SGA.

[Crow]

The fall off on SGA's offensive and defensive ratings in losses compared to wins is twice as big as on defense.

[Crow]

To address issue of performance without SGA, it appears that JDub / Hartenstein is essential and Joe and / or Wiggins can / should join.

The return of Holmgren will allow more Hartenstein without SGA.

The balance of with / without for IHart and JDub and Holmgren to be determined.

[Crow]

Thunder are 2nd highest on 10-16 foot shot frequency (12%) and first on FG% (51%).

Last playoffs they were 4th on frequency (14%) and 2nd on FG% (56%).

Celtics were last on playoff frequency and 3rd worst on FG%. Different talents / strategies.

Overall in playoffs these shots go up to 11% frequency from 9% in regular season. FG% goes from 44 to 46%.

[Crow]

3pt fg% will have random variance.

Thunder goes from best last season to smack average.

Which had more variance? One or both?

13% increase in 3pt attempts.



Opponents, 4th fewest fgas, least makes, lowest efg%, 2pt fg% and 3pt fg%.

Opponents average 5 more ftas per game. 2nd highest amount of ftas in league.

[Crow]

Greatest net margin in history so far.

Fwiw, attendance is 20th best. 1,000 unsold seats per game.

[Crow]

Holmgren - Hartenstein is a massive success in first 49 minutes together (+27 pts / 100p, nearly Holmgren's best). Success is broad across net stat comparisons. Nearly everywhere but a huge disparity in 3pt fgas between Thunder and opponents.

This data on combinations with SGA and JDub is interesting: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nb ... 14,1628983

Likely will comment on it more in future. But notable that SGA and none of the others on court is great, nearly best but slightly exceeded by 2 small minute non-SGA combos. All 4 together is great too and for nearly all the Holmgren - Hartenstein minutes but modestly less than the more limited combos. Will they all hold up? Time will reveal.

[Mike G]

Greatest net margin in history so far.

OKC'25: ORtg-Dtg = 118.3 - 105.4 = 12.9
Chi'96: O-D = 115.2 - 101.8 = 13.4

Relative to their NBA, those 72-win Bulls were better by 7.6 pts/100 on offense and 5.8 on D.
These Thunders are +4.3 on O and 8.6 on D. They go another 8.5 poss/G, 99.6 - 91.1

In ratio of points scored (Tm/Opp), it's Chi 1.132 - 1.123 OKC. Highest 2 such ratios in NBA history.
Those Bulls were at 1.134 after 80 games but let off the gas a bit at the end.

I found just 12 or 13* other teams with scoring ratio >1.10, since 1950.
* - one team, last year's Celtics, drop to 1.098 when opponent strength is included.

[Crow]

Would be willing to let go of Flagler if they see a vet free agent on the buyout market or still like Leons. Knock D Jones to a 2way if you need the regular roster spot.

[Crow]

Thunder 50 most used lineups average +17.7pts / 100p. The other 413 average +7.7. Great results but could be greater with less dinkathon. Concentration with clearly better results.

[Mike G]

Can you make it better without overplaying your better players?
Should you keep your "best" lineups on the floor when the game is well in hand?

Coach of the Year has the best team of all time and should do better?