2023-24 Title contenders

[Crow]

Nuggets are obviously under-rated by BRef's stats only method. The question is by how much. I treat them as a healthy, nearly whole returning champ.

Celtics, I reduced because of more competition than BRef recognizes in West and East and some concerns about past history and coaching.

Fwiw, fast estimates.

[Crow]

Only 3 teams are +3 W-L against top 10 teams. Celtics, Timberwolves and Thunder in ascending order by record.

Nuggets only 8-9. I might be giving them too much subjective enhancement.

Small samples. But teams -3 or worse seem less likely to win title to me.

Knicks 6-12.

Warriors 5-18. Heat 2-15.

The last 3 believe or want to believe they can do it. I guess they have a slight chance but I'd guess far behind the first tier contenders.

[Crow]

Nuggets 2W-1L to Clippers but haven't matched up since early December.

[Crow]

Updated estimated NBA Championship chances, imo:

Boston Celtics 25%
Denver Nuggets 19%
Los Angeles Clippers 5%
Milwaukee Bucks 5%
Phoenix Suns 3%
Cleveland Cavaliers 2%
Oklahoma City Thunder 12%
Minnesota Timberwolves
8%
Philadelphia 76ers 3%
New Orleans Pelicans 3%
New York Knicks 2%
Golden State Warriors 4%
Lakers 3%
Mavs 5%
Other 1%

[Crow]

I am probably too high on chances of 3rd and 4th tiers teams but will probably stay that way.

[v-zero]

The Mavericks have been surging since the ASB. I have them, when healthy, as a close second to Denver in the west. I also feel they play a style of basketball and have the tools, offensively, to do very well in the playoffs against almost anybody.

I wouldn't be shocked to see them exit early, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them face the Celtics in the Finals.

I can't see anybody but Boston coming out of the East, injuries permitting.

I'm ready to eat all of these words in due course.

[Mike G]

It may be a real shame that either the Mavs or the Clippers will not make it out of round 1.
Gafford in Dallas: PER 25.0, WS/48 .257, BPM 5.9
If qualified in minutes, he'd be 6th, 3rd, or 8th best in the league.

In their last 30 games , Mavs got 21 pts, 14 reb, 3.6 blocks, per 48 min. from centers Gafford, Lively, Powell.

[Crow]

Updated estimated NBA Championship chances, imo as of 5/18:

Boston Celtics 35%
Denver Nuggets 20%
Oklahoma City Thunder 8%
Minnesota Timberwolves
17%
New York Knicks 5%
Pacers 4%
Mavs 11%

[Crow]

7 remaining. Runaway favorite has average age of almost 29. Two others with high probabilities are near or above 27. Then 2 near or above 26, a 25.4 and a 23.0.

By my current chances, it is 1 chance in 4 of a new youngest champion.

[Crow]

Youngest team eliminated. 1st or 3rd youngest remaining gets eliminated tomorrow.

[Crow]

Updated estimated NBA Championship chances, imo as of late 5/19:

Boston Celtics 42%
Minn Timberwolves 31%
Pacers 10%
Mavs 17%

[Crow]

Teams with 3 of 4 best playoff offensive efficiencies are still playing with the weakest being still above average 7th.

3 of 5 with best defensive efficiencies are still playing but Pacers are 12th and almost 5pts behind 5th place.

[Crow]

Celtics - Mavs would 6th oldest in league vs. 12th and mean no new youngest champ, though it could be close with Mavs.

[Crow]

Are the TWolves fixable for a future title? Does a center go? Does Connelly stay or go? Do they have time?

[v-zero]

The Mavericks have been surging since the ASB. I have them, when healthy, as a close second to Denver in the west. I also feel they play a style of basketball and have the tools, offensively, to do very well in the playoffs against almost anybody.

I wouldn't be shocked to see them exit early, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them face the Celtics in the Finals.

I can't see anybody but Boston coming out of the East, injuries permitting.

I'm ready to eat all of these words in due course.

No egg on my face, bit of a turn up for the books. Celtics are the obviously more talented squad, but I don't think that necessarily reflects how the two match up.