2023-24 team win projection contest

[Crow]

Contest leader ahead of all outsiders. Somewhat mixed after that.

[Mike G]

After an 0-3 night vs the West, the median East SOS is -3.9
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Sixers have played 3 games, everyone else 4 or 5.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
eWin   5.23   6.65   .11      DRKO   5.11   6.44   .28
ncs.   5.63   7.11   .21      LEBR   5.19   6.59   .21
avgA   5.63   7.19   .21      EBPI   5.34   7.09   .21
trzu   5.93   7.37   .18      4141   5.61   6.61   
Crow   5.97   7.44   .20      KPel   5.76   7.42   .11
dtka   5.91   7.73   .15     vegas   6.12   7.63   .22
DQin   6.52   8.21   .18      EExp   6.41   8.00   .23
vzro   6.53   8.51   .16      ChKl   6.66   8.56   .17
emin   6.70   8.62   .25      NuFi   6.95   9.03   .18
medi   7.12   8.68   .21      IanL   7.00   8.59   .24

A couple of 'dummies' have been added: the average of all 9 APBR direct-submissions; and one that predicts all teams go 41-41.

[v-zero]

The 4141 dummy prediction really shows just how little these early standings mean.....or at least I hope so!

[Mike G]

Yeah, kinda. The 41 guess looks like the best guess for a few teams -- Mil, NYK, Mem, Por, Uta -- and worst on none.
At 0-5, the Grizz are thus far the worst team in the west; everyone predicted them to be >41, and a few to be best in the west.
So the first 4-5 games may or may not well predict the remaining 77-78; but within 15 games or so, it historically does. That is, our predictions can be thrown out the window as future projections.

The current b-r.com regression to 41 still improves the error for everyone in the contest; I can de-regress, but it helps nobody's avg error or rmse.
Teams' SOS still seem pretty wack, but should stabilize soon. One blowout score can turn things upside down right now.

[Crow]

41-41 finished last in previous year and it is extremely likely to do so again.

Might look early but that should steadily fade even with moderate amount of parity.

[Crow]

Bref's projected standings currently declare 5 teams have a 98.5+% chance of making playoffs and 5 teams already with 20% or less chance.

Some people might disagree with giving the Magic a 99.5% / virtual lock at making the playoffs and / or assigning the Thunder to that 20% or less group and at only 7.7%. Thunder given very very little chance of seeding above the play-in round.



Until the measuring stick gets pretty solid, the contest standings are pretty speculative.

[Mike G]

Yes, b-r.com has this feature under "frivolities" still; but they also link to it right up top.
The assumption seems to be that teams ARE this good (or bad) after just a few games; and if so, then it's likely they continue as such. And what constitutes a decent sample size? Five games -- or 500 possessions on offense and defense?
I find it interesting to see how the timid predictions fare next to the bold ones, as the season progresses. Pretty sure I'm the most timid this year.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
eWin   5.27   6.62   .12      DRkO   5.10   6.36   .29
avgA   5.45   7.09   .23      LEBR   5.11   6.52   .23
ncs.   5.52   7.11   .21      EBPI   5.16   7.05   .22
trzu   5.74   7.28   .20      4141   5.54   6.65  #/0!   
Crow   5.75   7.42   .20      KPel   5.59   7.37   .12
dtka   5.86   7.68   .15     vegas   5.97   7.54   .24
vzro   6.42   8.49   .17      EExp   6.29   7.93   .24
DQin   6.59   8.10   .19      ChKl   6.74   8.55   .17
emin   6.60   8.26   .30      NuFi   6.89   8.96   .19
medi   6.88   8.58   .22      IanL   7.04   8.61   .24

The Magics are thus far the most overachieving team relative to our prediction avg -- according to b-r.com:

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over   tm   avgA   b-r.      under   tm   avgA   b-r.
11.8  Orl   36.3   48.1     -17.2   Cle   49.3   32.1
10.7  SAS   28.7   39.4     -16.0   Mem   44.7   28.6
9.8   Det   26.1   35.9     -10.4   Mil   50.3   39.9
9.7   Por   30.1   39.8      -8.1   NYK   47.2   39.1
9.6   LAC   42.6   52.1      -6.6   Mia   42.4   35.7
5.2   GSW   45.8   50.9      -5.4   Chi   37.7   32.3
5.1   Sac   42.5   47.6      -4.6   NOP   45.2   40.6
4.7   LAL   43.2   47.8      -4.6   Bos   56.5   51.9
4.4   Uta   37.4   41.8      -3.2   Phx   46.9   43.7
2.4   Phl   47.9   50.3      -1.7   OKC   40.3   38.5
2.4   Hou   31.9   34.2      -1.7   Brk   39.9   38.2
2.1   Dal   41.0   43.1      -1.3   Min   46.0   44.7
1.4   Tor   40.4   41.7      -0.6   Den   50.7   50.1
1.1   Atl   42.0   43.1      -0.2   Ind   35.0   34.7
0.8   Cha   32.3   33.1               
0.7   Was   29.8   30.5               

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

[Crow]

4 biggest early over-achievers were projected low achievers. 8 biggest underachieving were projected to be strong.

Easiest for this to happen very early but greater parity is something to watch.

[Crow]

BRef projected standings only has 2 over 50 wins and 2 under 30.

Last season it was 6 and 4 respectively.

But I went with 2 and 3 (and may not have thought about it much at overview level), so I should hope for the tight distribution.

[Mike G]

Orlando's big improvement this year (thru 5 games) is on defense. They're +3 on steals and turnovers per game. They've held 5 opponents to .016 lower eFG% on avg, an improvement of .021 from last year.

Opp. 2FG% is down a whopping .047 from last year.
Unfortunately, their starting center is out of action for a while now.

[Crow]

Carter may be missed as a part of a productive starting unit, mostly positive big pairs and the rotations leading rebounder on both boards.

His -5 BPM runs counter to that though.

Will want to see replacement and change.

Tonight they went with Bitadze and he got a double double and team best raw +/-.

They smashed the Lakers on the boards and he got 5 blocks.

Only ten previous minutes but it was amazing.

Seems like positive things are more likely to continue than not.

Team is above average on all factors except own efg%.

I did not see this coming but I have barely studied them.

[Mike G]

Fell on dark o'days.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
eWin   5.61   7.10   .08      DRKO   4.80   6.18   .34
ncs.   5.65   7.27   .20      LEBR   5.09   6.52   .24
avgA   5.71   7.33   .21      EBPI   5.52   7.30   .20
trzu   5.95   7.52   .18      4141   5.59   6.85   
dtka   5.98   7.71   .16      KPel   5.66   7.46   .12
Crow   6.23   7.77   .17     vegas   6.60   7.99   .19
vzro   6.67   8.64   .16      EExp   7.06   8.49   .18
medi   6.73   8.62   .22      ChKl   7.26   9.02   .13
emin   6.86   8.45   .28      NuFi   7.40   9.50   .14
DQin   6.93   8.46   .16      IanL   7.76   9.18   .17

The East had a good night, going 3-1 vs the West. Den>Chi

[Mike G]

Noticing some younger teams with big 'overachievment' projections. This is defined as b-r.com vs our Avg predictions.
Team age has a modest negative correlation of -.22

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tm    avgA   over   age    over?
OKC   40.3   -2.5   22.7    6.8
Det   26.1    9.7   23.1    6.1
SAS   28.7   10.7   23.7    5.0
Orl   36.3   13.7   24.3    4.0
Por   30.1   10.4   24.6    3.4
Cha   32.3    2.2   25.0    2.7
NYK   47.2   -7.8   25.0    2.7
Ind   35.0   -1.9   25.2    2.4
Mem   44.7  -16.8   25.2    2.4
Hou   31.9    6.7   25.3    2.2
Atl   42.0    4.8   25.6    1.7
Was   29.8    1.2   25.8    1.3
Uta   37.4    0.0   25.8    1.3
NOP   45.2   -7.2   26.0    0.9
Cle   49.3  -17.2   26.1    0.8
Tor   40.4    2.7   26.3    0.4
Dal   41.0    2.4   26.3    0.4
Sac   42.5   -1.3   26.6   -0.1
Den   50.7    0.3   26.7   -0.3
Brk   39.9   -1.0   26.8   -0.5
Min   46.0    3.9   27.5   -1.7
Phl   47.9    4.9   28.3   -3.1
Mia   42.4   -5.4   28.4   -3.3
Bos   56.5   -3.5   28.5   -3.5
LAL   43.2    0.7   28.5   -3.5
Chi   37.7   -6.8   28.8   -4.0
Phx   46.9   -5.2   29.1   -4.6
GSW   45.8    2.7   30.0   -6.2
Mil   50.3   -9.0   30.2   -6.5
LAC   42.6    8.6   30.5   -7.1

Clipps are the oldest team but are doing better than expected. And they haven't been bitten by injury yet.
I always think my predictions should include an age adjustment, but I again failed to do this. Final column is from a formula that 'predicts' overachievment based on this table:
over? = (26.7-Age)*1.78 - .30

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... _2024.html
Age is under Advanced Stats
NBA avg court-time age is 26.6 this year.
I'd like to run this a couple more times during the season, esp. before tanking season starts.

[Crow]

"Final column is from a formula that 'predicts' overachievment based on this table:
over = (26.7-Age)*1.78 - .30."


Could you walk thru this?
Predicts overachievement? Compared to what? Positives and negative mean what here?

"Clippers are the oldest team but are doing better than expected."

In the second column. But what is the narrative for the 4th column for them? And for OKC?

[Mike G]

OKC avg playing age this year is 22.7
26.7-22.7 = 4.0
4.0*1.78 = 7.12
7.12 - .30 = 6.82

So the formula predicts that they should do 6.8 wins better than they would based on last year's stats.
A straight-line proportion like this is probably not the best estimator; but it was simple.
An additional 7 wins seems like a lot, and they fall well short; but the next 4 teams significantly beat the formula, for now -- as do several others.