APBRmetrics

Teams can be different, but looking at league salaries, a median team next season looks to include a $50 million / yr guy, a $35 mil, a $25 mil, a $15 mil and a $10 mil for top 5. $135 mil for them.


It takes some adjustment but guys "only" making $45-55 million in out years will be attractive relative to those going to $60-80 mil.

The performance impact ÷ pay ratio should be carefully studied, far more prominently noted. Very top pay, better be very top impact.

The average top salary structure for good teams is close to the league median structure noted above, but there are lots of different individual structures.

Further notes: only 3 will have 2 over $50 mil next season. None had success last playoffs. Suns abandoned their big 3. Bucks abandoned duo.

Nobody have more than 4 over $20 mil (unless I forgot a recent signing).

Only 2 have more than 6 over $10 million- Lakers and Spurs.

Sixers, Bucks, Rockets, Warriors and Griz have 4. TWolves 5. Sixers might bump up to 5 if re-sign Grimes.

Looking at Crafted PM by role, starting with "primary ballhandler", there were 12 at or above +3, then 12 more from +1 to +2.9, then 15 more from -1 to almost +1. Then only 8 others down to -3.5.

SGA, Doncic and Tatum lead the first tier, Brunson and Morant start the second tier, Banchero is the last of second tier, Trae Young first of third tier because of vey worst in group Defensive CPM, Schroder last of third tier. Henderson, Collier and Dillingham 2nd to last down to last in group.

I'd want to divide into clusters by pay to understand more about GM behavior.

F Wagner was only rookie contract in first tier. Very highly paid Jaylen Brown near top of third tier. Most in third tier over $25m / yr but a few bargains including Davion Mitchel and Coby White. Q Grimes trying to bust up the payscale. Slightly negative CPM doesn't seem compelling but others got paid big, teams not knowing or not caring about CPM or unable to follow it in negotiations. Fear of losing for nothing probably prompts many overpays.



Caruso is top "Spot-up shooter" as defined and the only one over +3 at +4. Keon Ellis the only other above +2 at +2.2. Just a total of 7 over +1, 22 over -1. Half worse than -1 with Cody Williams the worst in this group at -4.4. Harrison Barnes and Z Williams bigger paid than the other lesser performers. Very few in this group above or even near median pay. Appropriately imo.

Only 28 versatile bigs. The very worst at -1. Jokic, Giannis A. and Wemby lead. Vucevic, J Collins and Portis among the least favorable values in the bottom third of group.

"Connector" group is quite large and diverse.

Conference finalists average factor performance in regular season:

Modestly below average on both kinds of rebounding rates.

Modestly above average on opponent efg% rank.

7.5th on own efg%.

Mostly pretty similar in playoffs. Average rebounding rates. Similar percentile for opponent efg%. But own efg% average falls to just mildly above average.


I'd postulate that T these teams would have has to get hot on own efg% or ts% to beat the Thunder. Probably ant team would, unless maybe really dominant on the boards. Pacers got close but efg% dipped slightly in finals and rebounding was basically a draw not a win.

Cavs had dominant rebounding but bombed on efg% against Knicks. Timberwolves had dominant offensive rebounding but too many turnovers and not enough free throws.

Using 1/3rd win or less as a criteria, 6 teams were bad at home, 10 bad on road last season.

Using 2/3rds win as a criteria, 13 teams were good at home. Using more than a couple wins over .500 as good on road, 8 teams were good on road.

Lakers not quite good enough on road, slightly negative in regular season. Before Doncic and with Doncic. Same for Mavs and Doncic, slightly negative, not good enough.


9 western teams at least .500 against west, 6 clearly below that, down to 16%.

Only one team better than Lakers against west overall was Thunder of course. Clippers and Warriors were mildly positive against west but not enough. Mavs were meh against west with Doncic, bad without.

Giannis, moderately better A/TO than Sengun in NBA last season. Maybe Sengun catches next season or thereafter.

Similar Ast% / Usage ratios though Sengun a third less on each.

96 minutes qualified players in playoffs at BRef.

10 of 16 lowest ranked won't be on same team next season.

Tim Hardawy Jr at the very bottom but the Nuggets wanted him.

Porzingis 2nd lowest but Hawks take a shot at being different.

A Reaves 3rd lowest. Should hurt his contract negotiations but time to try to redeem.

D Green 7th lowest. M Porter 10th lowest. Westbrook 12th lowest.

Adebayo and Dort at about bottom 20%.
Jalen Green and D Brooks slightly worse.

Nembhard at +1 but modestly below group median.

On average there were about 3 at or over +2 per team. Thunder had 7. Celtics and Timberwolves had 4. That leaves about 2.5 for the other teams on average. Not enough.

Thunder and Timberwolves had 9 overall but only 4 of the Wolves met the minute qualification. Will more of the young guys play next time?

Banchero, F Wagner and Sengun had the by far lowest ts%s among the +4 or betters.

Gary Trent was +6.4 in playoffs but only got a small deal because of bately positive to weak BPM throughout his regular season career. But will see what he does next and if he gets a bigger contract later.

SGA only 5th by BPM but the other 4 didn't make conference finals.

NBA career leader board strays (trying to be new observations):

Anthony Davis and Paul George should pass 20k points. Both could eventually pass 25k Davis has potential to get pretty high.

LeBron is still 2nd to Jerry West for career points in finals. Probably stays there but we'll see. Curry 12th and short of 1000 points. Probably stuck there imo. K Thompson is only other active over 500, though a few others might get there before time runs out. Rick Barry the qualified leader for Finaks points per game at over 36.

James 4th on Finals games and no other actives in top tier.

Brook Lopez with 2000+ blocks, 20th highest. A Davis probably gets there. Gobert may or may not. M Turner top 50 and rising. Durant top 60 and rising. James 73 so far.

James with 40 pt lead over Jordan and everybody else on VORP and it could go to 50.

Michael Porter Jr. is 8th on career efg% among qualifiers and only non-Center in top 10. Zion is close Seth Curry slightly ahead of Steph.

Gobert and J Allen 1, 2 on qualified career ts%. Jokic 4 so far. D Sabonis in top 25.

James 4th on assists and might catch Kidd late this season or next. Westbrook will join 10,000 club if he plays. Curry 29th.

J Allen 1st on offensive rating. Haliburton 5, Butler 6, Paul 7, Brunson 9. Curry 36, Durant 41, James 60, Doncic 82, T Young 83, Tatum 94.

James needs 2 3ptm to pass Reggie Miller.
Durant 14th, will reach top 10, probably top 5.

Impact by position and thinking about such:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1974630680190714157

Just one game so far but personal foul per game per team was highest in 40 years compared to full seasonal data, FTAs highest in 36 years and FT/FGA was highest in 19 years.

Refs / league saying not totally going to getaway with aggressive hacking defense?

TO% highest in 10 seasons.

3ptas down 2 from last season's all time high. 3pt fg% tied for lowest in 13 years. Tied for 2nd lowest in 22 years.

Offensive rebounding per game down 4% from last season rate. Offensive rebounding rate down 3%.

TS% so far is higher than any previous full season.

Offensive Rating just 0.1 below last season but almost a full point below 2023-4 peak.

Fastest average pace in 43 years.

Obviously 1 game is a super tiny sample. But start looking before others and will check back later.

All noise or some significant trends? We'll find out over time.

League averages

This season
3-10 ft and 10-15 feet near 46% fg%.

2020, 40% and 42%
2010, 42% and 40%.

The best scorers seem to do much of their shooting in this 3-15' range. Whenever Shai hits one, they say "he got to his spot" which is most of the court.
A lot of October league averages never hold up over the season. TO, PF, FTA are high; shooting% will go up, if you discount the tanking teams.

Still a modest sized sample but much bigger than first check:

FTAs per game down a couple but still highest in 20 years and none more than a small fraction higher in 30 years. FT/FGA highest in 17 years.

Offensive rebounds per game tied for highest in 21 years. Off Reb rate highest in 13 years.

Assists per game down slightly from last 2 seasons but still 4th highest of all-time.

Steals per game tied for highest in 33 years. Turnover rate overall at 11 season high.

Blocks per game tied for lowest in 50 years.

FT% at all-time high.

Pace highest in 39 years. Should that be discussed in view of athletic load / injury risk?

Offensive rating at all-time recorded highest. TS% at all-time high.

Average minutes weighted age up slightly and tied for highest in 9 years.

Average weight tied for 2nd lightest in 28 years, with lightest being last season and just 1 pound heavier.

Some early trends may fade, some or many may last.

All per game trends affected by high pace but usually a trend in addition to that impact.

Most of these numbers indicate continued movement to smaller, quicker, better-shooting lineups. Fewer true-Center minutes.
As of a few days ago: 45.4% of floor time is to Wing shooters.
And a Big, to get minutes, is well advised to be a shooter.

I guess O-Reb are up because D-Reb is down...
Still a lot of October basketball in the data.