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Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2024 4:59 pm
by Crow
5th and 1st place have gotten closer. 40-50% closer in 8 days.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2024 2:16 pm
by Mike G
Adding the 2 that Crow suggested may represent 'Vegas', though only one seems very legit.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
WShr 5.53 7.3 .40 perW 7.15 8.9 .18
bpmW 5.58 7.2 .42 emin 7.22 9.3 .36
24pr 5.90 7.8 .28 4141 7.23 9.0
avgA 6.20 7.8 .40 Crow 7.25 9.2 .38
TmTj 6.61 8.4 .42 vegas 7.34 9.2 .35
eWin 6.88 8.5 .23 medi 7.50 9.5 .36
DQin 6.95 8.8 .40 24py 8.52 10.7 .28
dtka 6.96 8.2 .40 bmgm 9.66 11.4 .28
A doormat entry isn't a bad thing.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2024 6:03 pm
by TeemoTeejay
I’d have sworn that Vegas usually wins these things right?
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2024 6:15 pm
by Crow
No. It has I think, but not "usually".
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2024 9:16 pm
by DQuinn1575
Mike G wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 2:16 pm
Adding the 2 that Crow suggested may represent 'Vegas', though only one seems very legit.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
WShr 5.53 7.3 .40 perW 7.15 8.9 .18
bpmW 5.58 7.2 .42 emin 7.22 9.3 .36
24pr 5.90 7.8 .28 4141 7.23 9.0
avgA 6.20 7.8 .40 Crow 7.25 9.2 .38
TmTj 6.61 8.4 .42 vegas 7.34 9.2 .35
eWin 6.88 8.5 .23 medi 7.50 9.5 .36
DQin 6.95 8.8 .40 24py 8.52 10.7 .28
dtka 6.96 8.2 .40 bmgm 9.66 11.4 .28
A doormat entry isn't a bad thing.
Hi, can you do me a favor and post like who each entry is - like I see WShr, and think it's a WinShare entry, but dont know whose, and am not sure who avgA or 4141 are
Thanks
DQin (DQuinn1575)
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2024 2:10 am
by TeemoTeejay
DQuinn1575 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 9:16 pm
Mike G wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 2:16 pm
Adding the 2 that Crow suggested may represent 'Vegas', though only one seems very legit.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
WShr 5.53 7.3 .40 perW 7.15 8.9 .18
bpmW 5.58 7.2 .42 emin 7.22 9.3 .36
24pr 5.90 7.8 .28 4141 7.23 9.0
avgA 6.20 7.8 .40 Crow 7.25 9.2 .38
TmTj 6.61 8.4 .42 vegas 7.34 9.2 .35
eWin 6.88 8.5 .23 medi 7.50 9.5 .36
DQin 6.95 8.8 .40 24py 8.52 10.7 .28
dtka 6.96 8.2 .40 bmgm 9.66 11.4 .28
A doormat entry isn't a bad thing.
Hi, can you do me a favor and post like who each entry is - like I see WShr, and think it's a WinShare entry, but dont know whose, and am not sure who avgA or 4141 are
Thanks
DQin (DQuinn1575)
The top 4 are all other stuff
4141 = all teams 41-41
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:11 pm
by Mike G
I took WS/48, PER, BPM, and my own eWins player rates from last year and gave them all the minutes from Kevin Pelton.
Even though these stats are unrelated, they seem to congregate near one end of the Wins spectrum -- they are the 4 lowest on Bos, the 4 highest on Brk, etc. This suggests that Minutes are a big part of the predictive value.
TmTj = TeemoTeejay
DQin = DQuinn1575
dtka = dtkavana
emin = eminence
Crow = Crow
medi = mediocre (last year's winner)
vegas =
https://www.covers.com/nba/win-totals-odds
bmgm =
https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/n ... tals-bm23/
those last 2 :
Code: Select all
west bmgm vegas east bmgm vegas
Dal 50 49 Atl 36 36
Den 57 50 Bos 64 58
GSW 46 43 Brk 32 19
Hou 41 43 Cha 21 30
LAC 51 35 Chi 39 28
LAL 47 43 Cle 48 48
Mem 27 47 Det 14 25
Min 56 52 Ind 47 46
NOP 49 46 Mia 46 44
OKC 57 56 Mil 49 50
Phx 49 47 NYK 50 54
Por 21 22 Orl 47 47
Sac 46 46 Phl 47 49
SAS 22 36 Tor 25 29
Uta 31 28 Was 15 20
I don't know who would bet the Spurs win <22 or the Clips >51
Last night was bad for everyone but especially at the top.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
WShr 5.95 7.5 .37 DQin 7.31 9.0 .37
bpmW 5.97 7.4 .39 Crow 7.31 9.3 .37
24pr 5.98 7.9 .26 perW 7.38 9.1 .15
avgA 6.59 8.0 .37 vegas 7.53 9.4 .32
TmTj 6.90 8.6 .40 medi 7.63 9.6 .34
eWin 6.96 8.7 .20 emin 7.68 9.6 .32
dtka 7.23 8.4 .38 24py 8.64 10.8 .26
4141 7.30 9.0 bmgm 9.75 11.6 .26
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2024 4:05 pm
by TeemoTeejay
Mike G wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:11 pm
I took WS/48, PER, BPM, and my own eWins player rates from last year and gave them all the minutes from Kevin Pelton.
Even though these stats are unrelated, they seem to congregate near one end of the Wins spectrum -- they are the 4 lowest on Bos, the 4 highest on Brk, etc. This suggests that Minutes are a big part of the predictive value.
TmTj = TeemoTeejay
DQin = DQuinn1575
dtka = dtkavana
emin = eminence
Crow = Crow
medi = mediocre (last year's winner)
vegas =
https://www.covers.com/nba/win-totals-odds
bmgm =
https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/n ... tals-bm23/
those last 2 :
Code: Select all
west bmgm vegas east bmgm vegas
Dal 50 49 Atl 36 36
Den 57 50 Bos 64 58
GSW 46 43 Brk 32 19
Hou 41 43 Cha 21 30
LAC 51 35 Chi 39 28
LAL 47 43 Cle 48 48
Mem 27 47 Det 14 25
Min 56 52 Ind 47 46
NOP 49 46 Mia 46 44
OKC 57 56 Mil 49 50
Phx 49 47 NYK 50 54
Por 21 22 Orl 47 47
Sac 46 46 Phl 47 49
SAS 22 36 Tor 25 29
Uta 31 28 Was 15 20
I don't know who would bet the Spurs win <22 or the Clips >51
Last night was bad for everyone but especially at the top.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
WShr 5.95 7.5 .37 DQin 7.31 9.0 .37
bpmW 5.97 7.4 .39 Crow 7.31 9.3 .37
24pr 5.98 7.9 .26 perW 7.38 9.1 .15
avgA 6.59 8.0 .37 vegas 7.53 9.4 .32
TmTj 6.90 8.6 .40 medi 7.63 9.6 .34
eWin 6.96 8.7 .20 emin 7.68 9.6 .32
dtka 7.23 8.4 .38 24py 8.64 10.8 .26
4141 7.30 9.0 bmgm 9.75 11.6 .26
Do Kevin pelton wins do better than numberfire or rotowire?
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 3:14 am
by DQuinn1575
Mike G wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:11 pm
I took WS/48, PER, BPM, and my own eWins player rates from last year and gave them all the minutes from Kevin Pelton.
Even though these stats are unrelated, they seem to congregate near one end of the Wins spectrum -- they are the 4 lowest on Bos, the 4 highest on Brk, etc. This suggests that Minutes are a big part of the predictive value.
TmTj = TeemoTeejay
DQin = DQuinn1575
dtka = dtkavana
emin = eminence
Crow = Crow
medi = mediocre (last year's winner)
vegas =
https://www.covers.com/nba/win-totals-odds
bmgm =
https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/n ... tals-bm23/
those last 2 :
Code: Select all
west bmgm vegas east bmgm vegas
Dal 50 49 Atl 36 36
Den 57 50 Bos 64 58
GSW 46 43 Brk 32 19
Hou 41 43 Cha 21 30
LAC 51 35 Chi 39 28
LAL 47 43 Cle 48 48
Mem 27 47 Det 14 25
Min 56 52 Ind 47 46
NOP 49 46 Mia 46 44
OKC 57 56 Mil 49 50
Phx 49 47 NYK 50 54
Por 21 22 Orl 47 47
Sac 46 46 Phl 47 49
SAS 22 36 Tor 25 29
Uta 31 28 Was 15 20
I don't know who would bet the Spurs win <22 or the Clips >51
Last night was bad for everyone but especially at the top.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
WShr 5.95 7.5 .37 DQin 7.31 9.0 .37
bpmW 5.97 7.4 .39 Crow 7.31 9.3 .37
24pr 5.98 7.9 .26 perW 7.38 9.1 .15
avgA 6.59 8.0 .37 vegas 7.53 9.4 .32
TmTj 6.90 8.6 .40 medi 7.63 9.6 .34
eWin 6.96 8.7 .20 emin 7.68 9.6 .32
dtka 7.23 8.4 .38 24py 8.64 10.8 .26
4141 7.30 9.0 bmgm 9.75 11.6 .26
Thanks for posting this.
If you want it, here is the link for the win totals that basketball-reference.com uses
https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nba-r ... s-by-team/
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 12:38 pm
by Mike G
I did not know b-r.com showed Vegas predictions; but they are the same as I am using as 'vegas', once I removed .38 wins from each team, so they total 1230.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
WShr 5.85 7.4 .38 4141 7.18 9.0
bpmW 5.85 7.2 .41 Crow 7.29 9.1 .40
24pr 5.92 7.8 .28 vegas 7.40 9.3 .34
avgA 6.55 7.9 .39 perW 7.47 9.0 .17
TmTj 6.76 8.4 .42 medi 7.57 9.5 .35
eWin 6.95 8.7 .21 emin 7.60 9.5 .33
DQin 7.03 8.8 .40 24py 8.54 10.7 .28
dtka 7.12 8.3 .40 bmgm 9.64 11.4 .28
Leaders at various exponents (excluding avgA)
Code: Select all
e = 0.5 e = 1 = MAE e = 2 = RMSE
24pr 4.74 WShr 5.846 bpmW 7.19
WShr 4.94 bpmW 5.852 WShr 7.37
bpmW 5.09 24pr 5.92 24pr 7.81
TmTj 5.79 TmTj 6.76 dtka 8.26
DQin 5.90 eWin 6.95 TmTj 8.37
e = 4 e = 8 e = 16
bpmW 9.51 WShr 12.29 WShr 14.3
WShr 9.71 bpmW 12.30 bpmW 14.5
dtka 10.07 dtka 12.37 dtka 14.6
24pr 10.39 24pr 13.20 DQin 15.3
DQin 11.07 DQin 13.35 4141 15.3
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 4:12 pm
by Crow
BRef projection is for 12 team fights for conference top 10s. I think it will shake out to be a bit less in at least the east.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 2:42 pm
by Mike G
Over and under-achieving teams relative to the avg of our predictions.
I've inserted current SRS, which along with current W-L (and some regression to .500) leads to the b-r.com projection.
Code: Select all
over tm avgA b-r srs over tm avgA b-r srs
12.7 Brk 27 40 -0.8 -20.3 Phl 49 28 -8.0
12.0 Cle 48 60 10.0 -17.1 NOP 45 28 -7.4
11.2 GSW 46 57 11.3 -10.4 Min 51 41 0.3
10.3 Hou 42 52 8.1 -8.5 Mil 46 37 -1.7
8.4 Det 30 38 -2.3 -7.4 Ind 44 37 -3.2
5.8 SAS 34 39 -0.3 -5.6 Phx 47 42 -0.9
5.5 Cha 30 35 -4.5 -5.4 Sac 47 41 0.2
5.4 Por 26 31 -7.0 -5.3 Dal 50 44 3.7
5.1 Chi 31 36 -4.1 -4.8 Den 49 44 2.0
4.8 LAC 37 42 1.5 -4.1 Atl 39 35 -5.1
4.6 Mem 43 47 5.6 -3.2 Bos 58 54 7.9
4.3 Orl 43 47 3.4 -2.9 Uta 30 27 -9.6
4.2 Was 23 27 -10.4 -2.6 Mia 43 40 -1.1
4.1 OKC 56 60 13.3 -1.7 Tor 30 28 -6.8
2.5 LAL 41 43 0.0 -1.2 NYK 47 46 3.2
On avg, errors are worse by about 0.55 in the last week.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
bpmW 6.11 7.4 .40 DQin 7.21 8.9 .39
WShr 6.23 7.6 .37 Crow 7.35 9.0 .41
24pr 6.26 8.0 .27 vegas 7.44 9.4 .33
avgA 6.71 8.0 .38 medi 7.64 9.6 .36
TmTj 6.79 8.4 .42 perW 7.71 9.3 .15
4141 7.17 9.2 emin 7.76 9.6 .33
eWin 7.18 8.8 .20 24py 8.78 10.8 .27
dtka 7.19 8.4 .39 bmgm 9.79 11.5 .27
Those towards the top again have been hit harder.
The spread from #1 to #14 is season-low 1.65
Last year at this time it was 3.03, from 4.30 to 7.33
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 6:06 pm
by Crow
10 teams with 7+ variance, only 6 within 4.
Lower threshold, I'm .19 from 6th.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:44 pm
by Mike G
Big shakeup overnight, avg .15 worse but with wide variation, again hit harder toward the top.
First column is MAE change from yesterday.
Code: Select all
chg . avg err rmse r^2
.31 bpmW 6.41 7.6 .40
.31 WShr 6.54 7.9 .36
.41 24pr 6.67 8.3 .25
.02 avgA 6.74 8.1 .38
.04 TmTj 6.83 8.4 .43
.01 dtka 7.20 8.5 .38
-.14 Crow 7.21 8.9 .42
.17 DQin 7.38 9.0 .39
.27 eWin 7.46 9.0 .21
.02 vegas 7.46 9.3 .35
.30 4141 7.46 9.5
.11 medi 7.76 9.6 .36
.05 emin 7.81 9.7 .33
.26 perW 7.98 9.5 .15
.16 24py 8.94 11.1 .25
.14 bmgm 9.93 11.8 .25
And how much do each of us agree with "Vegas"? or with one another?
What's the correlation between our current "error" averages and our "agree" levels?
Code: Select all
"vegas" diff avgA diff
Crow 2.26 bpmW 1.94
dtka 2.37 dtka 1.98
TmTj 2.91 TmTj 2.09
emin 2.93 WShr 2.29
medi 3.14 DQin 2.65
DQin 3.49 medi 2.91
bpmW 3.81 Crow 3.13
WShr 4.15 eWin 3.41
eWin 4.74 perW 3.59
perW 5.05 emin 3.65
correl .115 correl .82
So far, there's not much to be said for going with vegas with slight variations.
The high success rate of being close to our avg guesses is corroborated by the (always) high position of that avg.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 5:59 pm
by Crow
Moved up to 7th. First is 0.81 away.
Interesting that I am closest to Vegas and pretty far from other entries. Long way to go but rate of change may slow down.
Leading 3 sets fell twice as far or more from previous up date as average.