most improved players of 2011-12

[Crow]

Lin is the only guy in the poll who will be a free agent this summer. RFA.

[Mike G]

With 92% of the season finished, it may well depend on who gets minutes.
You can change your vote in this poll. I just did.

Code: Select all

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
2.82   Monroe,Greg    Det  .556   19.7  12.4   2.5   1.84      .563   12.9  10.9   1.6   1.13
2.74   Mullens,Byron  Cha  .473   14.4   8.2   1.1    .97  Okl .357    6.8   8.8    .0   -.06
2.67   Gortat,Marcin  Phx  .578   19.0  11.6   1.0   1.81      .584   14.3  10.9   1.2   1.15
2.61   Lin,Jeremy     NYK  .540   21.4   4.3   9.0   1.73  GSW .450    6.8   3.5   4.1    .39
2.58   Pekovic,Nikola Min  .596   19.2   9.7    .9   1.39      .561   12.6   7.3    .9    .29

2.42   Hayward,Gordon Uta  .550   14.8   4.5   3.6    .89      .568   11.1   4.1   2.2    .27
2.30 Cousins,Demarcus Sac  .488   20.3  13.3   1.8   1.94      .474   16.7  12.1   3.0   1.31
2.23   Seraphin,Kevin Was  .541   12.9   8.6    .9    .95      .474    6.6   7.4    .4   -.09
2.15   Smith,Josh     Atl  .486   21.2  10.6   4.1   2.22      .531   19.3  10.1   3.5   1.74
2.12   George,Paul    Ind  .548   16.4   7.1   3.3   1.25      .534   13.1   6.2   1.8    .68

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
2.06   Lucas,John     Chi  .480   18.0   3.5   5.0   1.11      .250    4.0    .0   3.1   -.44
1.82  Vasquez,Greivis NOH  .518   13.4   3.9   6.2    .79  Mem .488    8.8   2.9   5.4    .22
1.80   Ilyasova,Ersan Mil  .566   17.7  11.5   1.4   1.59      .511   14.8   9.3   1.3   1.03
1.71   Jefferson,Al   Uta  .520   21.7  10.8   2.5   2.17      .522   19.4  11.0   1.9   1.75
1.61   Harrington,Al  Den  .528   18.1   8.1   1.8   1.19      .521   14.6   6.8   2.1    .73

1.57   Harden,James   Okl  .632   20.2   4.7   4.2   1.31      .583   16.4   4.2   2.8    .91
1.56   Bradley,Avery  Bos  .539   13.2   3.3   2.3    .42      .356    7.9   3.2   2.0   -.21
1.51   Pachulia,Zaza  Atl  .543   11.3  10.8   1.7    .92      .543    9.6   9.2   1.4    .47
1.51   Jack,Jarrett   NOH  .533   18.4   4.6   5.7   1.27      .494   14.3   3.7   4.5    .79
1.50   Dragic,Goran   Hou  .557   16.5   3.6   6.8   1.12      .515   13.0   3.8   5.3    .65

#21-30: Maxiell, Hibbert, Jason Smith, Ibaka, Evan Turner, A Bynum, M Gasol, Durant, Teague, Joel Anthony (+1.21)
31-40: Frye, Nate Robinson, Splitter, Gee, Favors, Daniel Green, DeAndre Jordan, Brandan Wright, Mayo, Chalmers (+0.98)

[Mike G]

Players whose production drops have led to fewer eWins in their minutes.

Code: Select all

eW+      per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-2.05   Hayes,Chuck   Sac  .443    5.1   7.8   2.3    .12  Hou .545   10.5  11.2   3.8   1.16
-2.01   Odom,Lamar    Dal  .417   11.2   7.0   2.8    .64  LAL .581   18.1  10.1   3.6   1.61
-1.85   Salmons,John  Sac  .468    9.3   3.9   2.5    .20  Mil .503   16.1   4.1   3.6    .91
-1.70   Martin,Kevin  Hou  .544   21.0   3.3   3.0   1.16      .586   28.4   3.9   2.9   1.81
-1.68   Miller,Andre  Den  .509   12.4   4.6   8.4    .94  Por .520   15.7   4.9   8.2   1.42

-1.68  Felton,Raymond Por  .488   13.5   3.1   7.5    .85  Den .517   14.7   3.6   8.7   1.28
-1.58   Bryant,Kobe   LAL  .518   28.8   5.3   3.9   2.08      .538   30.5   6.0   5.5   2.43
-1.56   Butler,Caron  LAC  .494   15.8   4.8   1.5    .75  Dal .517   20.0   5.5   2.1   1.18
-1.50   West,David    Ind  .521   16.8   8.4   3.2   1.38  NOH .549   22.6   9.1   2.5   1.79
-1.49   Scola,Luis    Hou  .522   19.5   8.2   2.7   1.31      .531   20.8   9.9   3.1   1.69

eW+      per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-1.42 Stevenson,Desha NJN  .405    5.2   4.0   1.5   -.27  Dal .545   13.3   3.6   2.6    .51
-1.39   Harris,Devin  Uta  .549   15.3   2.3   6.4    .89      .532   18.5   3.1   7.7   1.30
-1.33   Battier,Shane Mia  .497    7.7   3.7   2.1    .15  Mem .562   10.0   6.0   3.0    .62
-1.32   Augustin,D.J. Cha  .485   13.2   3.0   6.2    .68      .532   17.0   3.5   6.3   1.17
-1.32 Matthews,Wesley Por  .539   15.5   3.9   1.8    .77      .572   19.8   3.9   2.2   1.08

-1.29   Nash,Steve    Phx  .619   15.6   3.5  12.3   1.45      .591   17.3   4.0  12.7   1.79
-1.26   Gasol,Pau     LAL  .542   18.6  10.5   3.4   1.78      .577   21.5  10.8   3.6   2.04
-1.23   Martin,Kenyon LAC  .434    8.2   7.1    .7    .40  Den .520   12.5   9.7   3.7   1.14
-1.17   Thomas,Tyrus  Cha  .398    9.4   7.4    .9    .54      .525   16.3   9.4   1.0   1.13
-1.12  McRoberts,Josh LAL  .500    6.2   8.1   2.1    .24  Ind .597   13.3   9.0   3.5   1.09

#21-30: Amar'e, Nelson, Ray Allen, D Collison, Kidd, Nowitzki, R Evans, Holiday, Nazr, Zach (-0.87)

[YaoPau]

I think I'd go Gortat for most improved. It's amazing how many guys who broke out offensively this year struggle on defense... I'm not sure guys like Monroe or Pekovic are particularly good at this point.

I'd go as far to say that Gortat and Nash are probably in my top 20 for MVP this year. I can't even believe they are in the playoffs... their bench is horrible, 3/5ths of their starting lineup is average, and yet their starting lineup is the most successful lineup in the NBA this year (+209 overall, +13.6 per 100 poss in 750 minutes). A 21.4 PER with good defense for Gortat is near-elite stuff. I guess Gortat was pretty good last year too (and so maybe I'd put Paul George in the discussion), but it's a significant jump imo going from 6th man to star player for a playoff team.

[Mike G]

The Suns aren't in the playoffs yet. They are 8th in the West by likelihood, according to b-r.com, with a 56% chance of getting in.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi
Their chances are 1.1% of winning the West and 0.5% of winning the lottery. No other team has as good a chance at both.

Byron Mullens went from below replacement level to above median, in some measures. It's hard to compare such players' absolute improvement.
In fact this year is anomalous, with quite a few top contenders, all with drastically different stories.

[Mike G]

MIP winner Ryan Anderson was hot early, last popped into the top 20 on Feb.16, and winds up behind 40-some others. His improvement is estimated (by eWins) to have given Orlando almost 1 more win than they'd have if he hadn't improved. A dozen or so players had twice that much improvement impact.

Poll results at this moment: Pekovic (3), Lin (2); Harden, Gortat, and Mullens (1 each)

[Crow]

It is very unlikely to have influenced any voting but Ryan Anderson had the 21st best prior-informed RAPM and the 14th best prior-informed RAPM. Another case were impact estimates from boxscore metrics vary sharply from RAPM. In part because RAPM has shot defense and impact on the offense of teammates beyond assists in it and boxscore metrics don't.

3 of the 5 rated highest on eW+ were estimated in the bottom third of the league on prior-informed RAPM and in 2 of those cases they were quite a bit lower.

Pekovic had by far the best RAPM estimate of the top 5 on eW+. Andre Miller marked as having the 5th biggest decline by eW+, but RAPM estimates still have him as a top 50 positive impact player. (Kobe at about 50th too.)

One can use one metric or another or use both.

[Mike G]

Ryan Anderson had the 21st best prior-informed RAPM and the 14th best prior-informed RAPM.

He was 21st last year and 14th this year?

... 3 of the 5 rated highest on eW+ were estimated in the bottom third of the league on prior-informed RAPM...

Are you referring to improvement from last season? Or just this year's RAPM?

[Crow]

Ryan Anderson had the 21st best prior-informed RAPM and the 14th best prior-informed RAPM.

He was 21st last year and 14th this year? YES

... 3 of the 5 rated highest on eW+ were estimated in the bottom third of the league on prior-informed RAPM...

Are you referring to improvement from last season? Or just this year's RAPM?

JUST THIS SEASON. RAPM IMPROVEMENT COULD BE FOUND, BUT THERE COULD BE MAJOR IMPACT FROM GOING FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE ERROR.

[EvanZ]

Changes in A4PM and RAPM (calculated by me) from 2011 to 2012:



Delta is A4PM12-A4PM11.

[Crow]

file currently requires permission to view.

[EvanZ]

file currently requires permission to view.

Does it work now?

Mike, there are possessions in that spreadsheet, if you want to do that calculation (copy the data to a new file). I'd rather leave that spreadsheet alone, since it's in one of my blog posts.

[Crow]

The file is visible now.

Only 9 of 117 players had their A4PM change by more than 2 points. Less than 40% of players changed by more than 1. That does not seem that volatile to me. The average absolute change was a bit under 0.9. Per 100 possessions. Per game the change will be a good deal less in most cases.

Same is basically true with RAPM change.

Average absolute difference between A4PM and RAPM is 0.44 per 100 possessions. Only 11 varied by more than 1. About 40% varied by less than 0.2. Andre Miller had the biggest discrepancy. Westbrook 4th biggest. In fact PGs had 10 of the 11 biggest discrepancies and 16 of the top 21. Wonder why. A detail worth keeping in mind and perhaps pursuing further.

[EvanZ]

Here's a graphical depiction:

[Mike G]

Does this display that the 3 best players in the league are Beno, Manu, and Bonner?