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Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:19 pm
by Mike G
Taking the 2-3 games each team has played and their MOV -- not considering SOS -- we can fancifully project teams' win totals over 82 games.
These range from 2 wins for Phx up to 77/78 for the Raps and Clipps.
Using these as 25% of the projection, and our group avg. prediction for the other 75%, we get the following:
Code: Select all
GSW 60 Tor 55
Hou 58 Cle 51
SAS 55 Was 49
LAC 55 Bos 46
Okl 50 Cha 46
Por 49 Mil 43
Den 47 Mia 41
Min 46 Det 40
Uta 46 Orl 39
Mem 43 Brk 33
NOP 39 Ind 31
Dal 29 Phl 29
LAL 27 NYK 26
Sac 26 Atl 25
Phx 21 Chi 22
Relative to these projections, our average errors:
Code: Select all
kmed 3.07 Crow 3.97
cali 3.38 sndi 4.03
ATCt 3.40 538_ 4.13
avg* 3.43 ncs. 4.16
RyRi 3.48 Josh 4.30
shad 3.58 emin 4.31
lnqi 3.66 knar 4.31
GK5. 3.75 AJBk 4.32
sbs. 3.92 Nath 4.33
gold 3.93 Mike 5.03
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:33 pm
by kmedved
Is there a spreadsheet with all the picks available? I want to run some of my own sets of rankings, and am trying to avoid duplicating the pick assembly process.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:00 pm
by Mike G
You should be able to copy this into a spreadsheet.
Code: Select all
tm Mike ncs. Josh emin shad gold 538_ RyRi AJBk sbs. sndi GK5. ATCt cali Crow kmed Nath lnqi knar
Atl 22 29 28 22 27 26 26 29 35 28 25 29 25 27 26 30 24 26 27
Bos 44 42 42 52 52 49 47 47 49 50 47 48 48 49 50 50 46 49 48
Brk 33 30 30 25 26 29 29 30 28 28 33 27 28 29 26 32 26 28 26
Cha 45 45 44 42 43 46 46 44 46 45 42 45 47 46 46 47 42 43 47
Chi 23 29 26 24 25 27 27 28 31 26 21 28 26 26 24 27 24 25 24
Cle 55 60 52 54 54 51 56 53 53 54 54 51 56 54 58 52 57 55 59
Dal 39 33 36 30 32 29 30 33 32 34 31 36 32 34 29 31 32 34 34
Den 47 47 44 52 45 47 49 46 43 46 46 50 47 45 48 46 52 46 45
Det 33 34 36 36 40 41 35 37 35 37 36 37 35 37 34 34 36 38 33
GSW 71 71 65 70 65 65 63 66 69 66 69 63 68 69 70 70 65 67 70
Hou 65 60 57 58 55 58 57 57 55 56 61 55 59 61 58 59 60 57 62
Ind 31 32 33 34 32 28 32 33 37 32 33 33 31 31 32 36 28 32 31
LAC 43 53 49 47 46 47 46 48 54 46 47 49 51 48 51 46 40 47 52
LAL 28 22 29 25 28 29 32 29 27 31 30 30 26 27 28 25 30 29 26
Mem 35 34 38 36 41 38 35 36 35 37 35 37 38 36 38 38 34 37 33
Mia 43 42 42 44 43 38 40 42 43 43 40 43 45 46 45 41 45 46 45
Mil 46 47 40 50 45 48 44 45 42 47 46 43 48 43 48 46 49 45 47
Min 47 48 51 44 45 48 50 48 47 49 50 49 50 48 45 48 46 51 51
NOP 48 45 43 40 41 38 43 41 41 41 40 43 45 39 43 39 40 39 44
NYK 29 29 34 30 31 34 30 31 33 30 31 29 28 29 32 26 32 30 30
Okl 48 48 53 49 51 56 54 50 46 52 54 47 52 52 55 49 52 51 51
Orl 33 33 33 28 33 34 37 33 34 33 33 33 33 35 33 34 34 33 31
Phl 38 34 36 35 35 38 40 36 35 36 38 30 30 35 35 33 40 37 35
Phx 31 25 28 24 29 31 31 28 26 28 29 32 25 25 23 23 26 26 23
Por 41 39 38 38 44 42 41 41 40 42 42 40 42 42 43 47 45 40 39
Sac 31 27 33 32 29 21 24 27 25 26 29 26 24 25 23 25 28 25 24
SAS 47 55 51 56 57 53 50 54 53 54 47 58 53 53 50 54 57 56 57
Tor 47 50 49 56 48 49 45 47 47 47 47 48 48 51 47 48 48 49 47
Uta 38 39 45 50 40 42 46 43 42 41 46 45 44 42 40 46 42 43 42
Was 49 48 45 47 48 48 46 48 49 48 48 45 47 46 50 50 50 48 48
Copy to Notepad, import to Excel.
Some submitted fractional wins, which would not convey.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:49 pm
by kmedved
Thanks.
Here's another set of ranks, using a method suggested by Justin Kubatko some years back to regress small sample size SRS: Rest of Season SRS = (YTD_SRS*YTS_Games)/(YTS_Games+9.811).
It's still pretty noisy at this point (see Golden State for instance, who has a pretty terrible SRS), but gets meaningful pretty quickly.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:40 pm
by Mike G
Here's another justforfun stab at it.
Using a hybrid (MOV+SRS)/2 in place of straight MOV in the PythW% formula, plus current wins and losses;
then using that as 50% and our avg projection as the other 50%;
we project these records:
Code: Select all
LAC 62 Tor 61
SAS 60 Cle 54
GSW 60 Orl 49
Por 58 Bos 49
Mem 51 Mia 48
Hou 50 Mil 47
Okl 46 Was 47
Uta 42 Ind 44
Den 40 Brk 40
Min 40 Cha 38
NOP 37 Det 34
LAL 25 Phl 28
Sac 21 Chi 27
Dal 20 Atl 22
Phx 16 NYK 20
In this scenario, the West averages 41.8 wins and the East 40.5
Relative to these projections, our avg errors are:
Code: Select all
kmed 6.59 GK5. 7.42
ATCt 6.88 sbs. 7.45
cali 6.99 knar 7.59
lnqi 7.11 ncs. 7.67
shad 7.14 gold 7.79
AJBk 7.21 Nath 7.94
avg* 7.31 538_ 8.09
emin 7.31 sndi 8.18
RyRi 7.33 Josh 8.42
Crow 7.35 Mike 8.79
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:30 pm
by Mike G
Quick update; same method described above. As SRS stabilize, a large one-day improvement is seen all around.
Code: Select all
kmed 5.88 Crow 6.60
shad 5.94 AJBk 6.67
gold 6.22 emin 6.95
RyRi 6.25 ncs. 7.03
cali 6.26 538_ 7.04
ATCt 6.33 knar 7.10
sbs. 6.35 Josh 7.19
lnqi 6.36 sndi 7.26
GK5. 6.39 Nath 7.31
avg* 6.43 Mike 7.97
You might think the entry known as
avg* would rank higher, since half of the projections are its very values.
After 3 to 5 games, teams' rank relative to whether they're looking worse or better than our avg. prediction:
Code: Select all
Worse Better
Min -14 Por 16
Den -11 Orl 16
NYK -11 LAC 15
Dal -8 Brk 11
Phx -7 Tor 9
Hou -7 Mem 8
Phl -6 SAS 6
Uta -6 Det 4
NOP -5 Ind 4
Sac -5 Mil 2
GSW -5 Chi 1
Atl -5 LAL 1
Cle -3 Bos 1
Was -3 Cha 0
Mia -2
Okl -1
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:34 pm
by kmedved
I slightly tweaked expected wins here by additionally regressing the impact of opposing YTD 3PT% in each's team's SRS to date. Benefits some teams like the Suns, hurts the Hornets, etc...
I also added an entrant called BetOnline (a sportsbook), with their posted Over/Unders as of October 15, and added a column showing each projected wins vs. BetOnline.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:35 pm
by kmedved
For the record, I much prefer Mike G's results!
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:45 pm
by Mike G
So I'm dead last but would win 15 of 30 vs the betting site?
And shadow is near the top but wins only 12 ?
I see the Pinnacle line posted early-on also ranks in my 2nd division here. Is that aka Vegas?
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:26 pm
by kmedved
Which one is the Pinnacle line? I can add it. BetOnline may not be the best proxy for "Vegas" it occurs to me, as they often juice a lot of their lines rather than move them outright. So their Celtics line was 52.5 (-150), while other sportsbooks may have just moved the over/under down to 52.5.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:26 pm
by Mike G
Pinnacle predictions were submitted by shadow, after he balanced them to 1230 total wins. It's the first submission in this thread.
He gave a prediction of 52.38 for Bos, rather identical to the 52.5 you're saying. Maybe just the difference in additive vs multiplicative adjustment?
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:50 pm
by josecarlos
How do you do your predictions? Which formula do you use? Which data do you use?
Thanks in advance for your answers!!!
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:00 pm
by shadow
Pinnacle also had some of the lines heavily juiced. So I calculated what the implied line was for each team if the juice was even on both sides. As long as you pulled the lines from BetOnline close to the start of the regular season before the market closed it's probably fine, assuming you make the adjustment for any heavily juiced sides. BetOnline usually just clones Pinnacle for the most part once Pinnacle's lines are up. You just wouldn't want to use the $250 BetOnline openers as a barometer for "Vegas" since those lines aren't very sharp and don't represent a liquid market.
Each half win was worth about 7 cents by my math. I think Pinnacle was dealing 16 cent lines, so a typical line would be Over 41 -108 / Under 41 -108. If the line was instead Over 41 -115 / Under -101, then the true line is 41.5.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:15 pm
by Crow
Approaches to team projections will vary some in the details but the general approach of most is: project player performance based on past (and maybe aging, convert performance to win impacts, project minutes and sum the products. Some folks regress to mean, blend metrics, make subjective adjustments.
There may be some useful discussion to come or in past contest threads. Not everyone wants to give away the details of their approach.
The scoring methods for the contest are a kind of prediction too based on recent in season team performance. They might be easier for what you seem to want to do. Try them, see how they do, adjust them. There is no one right answer.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:02 pm
by josecarlos
Crow wrote:Approaches to team projections will vary some in the details but the general approach of most is: project player performance based on past (and maybe aging, convert performance to win impacts, project minutes and sum the products. Some folks regress to mean, blend metrics, make subjective adjustments.
There may be some useful discussion to come or in past contest threads. Not everyone wants to give away the details of their approach.
The scoring methods for the contest are a kind of prediction too based on recent in season team performance. They might be easier for what you seem to want to do. Try them, see how they do, adjust them. There is no one right answer.
Thank you Crow for your answer!!! Very interesting!!!