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Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:23 pm
by nbacouchside
Code: Select all
Teams Wins
Houston Rockets 56.1
Milwaukee Bucks 53.5
Utah Jazz 49.6
Denver Nuggets 48.5
Toronto Raptors 48.1
Los Angeles Clippers 47.9
New Orleans Pelicans 47.6
Philadelphia 76ers 46.7
Boston Celtics 46.7
Los Angeles Lakers 44.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 44.2
Golden State Warriors 43.7
Orlando Magic 42.9
San Antonio Spurs 42.2
Indiana Pacers 41.9
Miami Heat 40.6
Portland Trail Blazers 40.6
Minnesota Timberwolves 40.1
Detroit Pistons 38.7
Brooklyn Nets 37.7
Dallas Mavericks 37.2
Memphis Grizzlies 37.0
Chicago Bulls 36.7
Washington Wizards 35.5
Phoenix Suns 34.5
Sacramento Kings 32.9
Charlotte Hornets 32.3
New York Knicks 29.8
Atlanta Hawks 29.4
Cleveland Cavaliers 22.9
Updated post-Zion injury news
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:41 am
by mtpowell22
Hey guys, just a reminder that the Win Totals league will lock tomorrow at 8:00 EST when the first game starts. If you haven't yet, get your picks in there so we can track throughout the season:
https://www.wintotals.com/leagues/b6ca8a6d
Cheers!
Miles
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:23 am
by sndesai1
Code: Select all
ATL 25.0
BOS 46.0
BRK 36.0
CHA 28.0
CHI 36.0
CLE 21.0
DAL 39.0
DEN 52.0
DET 37.0
GSW 50.0
HOU 57.0
IND 42.0
LAC 51.0
LAL 53.0
MEM 31.0
MIA 45.0
MIL 56.0
MIN 41.0
NOP 41.0
NYK 29.0
OKC 39.0
ORL 42.0
PHI 54.0
PHO 30.0
POR 42.0
SAC 38.0
SAS 38.0
TOR 50.0
UTA 47.0
WAS 34.0
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:33 pm
by tarrazu
Code: Select all
ATL 29.0
BKN 36.0
BOS 48.0
CHA 24.0
CHI 37.0
CLE 21.0
DAL 47.0
DEN 52.0
DET 37.0
GSW 42.0
HOU 56.0
IND 42.0
LAC 51.0
LAL 48.0
MEM 27.0
MIA 45.0
MIL 59.0
MIN 40.0
NOP 38.0
NYK 23.0
OKC 38.0
ORL 45.0
PHI 55.0
PHX 32.0
POR 42.0
SAC 37.0
SAS 47.0
TOR 49.0
UTA 54.0
WAS 29.0
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:17 pm
by Mike G
I see only 8 entries so far.
Ranked by avg absolute departure from our average:
Code: Select all
4.2 Mike
3.7 Rd11
2.9 emin
2.5 ncs.
2.4 trzu
2.0 gold
1.9 sndi
1.6 RyRi
Someone might just average the predictions for each team and be a contender. In general, you lose by being riddled with outlier guesses.
RyanRiot's biggest reaches are Phl and Den, both less than 4 wins above the avg.
Fully half of my guesses are at least that wild: 11 above norm on NYK, 10 over on Cle, 10 under on OKC ... It's as if I'm trying to lose.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:33 pm
by caliban
Code: Select all
HOU 55,8
MIL 54,1
PHI 52,5
BOS 52,0
UTA 51,1
LAC 49,8
DEN 49,7
LAL 47,5
TOR 47,5
MIA 45,4
SAS 44,3
IND 43,2
DAL 43,2
ORL 42,6
GSW 41,9
BRK 41,8
POR 41,3
NOP 40,9
CHI 37,5
DET 37,1
MIN 36,4
SAC 36,2
OKC 35,6
PHO 35,4
WAS 31,4
MEM 30,2
CHO 28,5
ATL 27,6
NYK 27,5
CLE 21,7
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:39 pm
by shadow
Code: Select all
ATL 33.44
BOS 48.19
BRK 43.44
CHAR 24.19
CHI 33.31
CLE 24.19
DAL 42.19
DEN 52.81
DET 37.44
GSW 47.81
HOU 53.69
IND 45.81
LAC 53.31
LAL 49.69
MEM 28.31
MIA 42.69
MIL 55.56
MIN 38.06
NOP 38.94
NYK 25.44
OKC 34.56
ORL 41.31
PHI 53.56
PHX 31.19
POR 45.56
SAC 37.06
SAS 42.06
TOR 45.44
UTA 52.06
WAS 28.69
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:56 pm
by tarrazu
Shadow,
Did you use the same methodology this year, teasing out the juice from the Pinnacle Season Win Totals IIRC?
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:48 pm
by liminal_space
Code: Select all
NYK 21.94
CLE 23.2
ATL 27.19
CHA 26.5
MEM 30.94
WAS 33.32
SAC 34.48
PHX 35.19
DET 36.19
BKN 38.48
CHI 38.43
OKC 39.34
POR 39.01
IND 40.8
MIN 40.95
ORL 40.8
NOP 41.57
GSW 43.44
SAS 42.67
MIA 44.62
TOR 45.22
DAL 45.67
LAL 48.16
UTA 48.84
BOS 50.18
DEN 51.69
LAC 52.43
PHI 53.56
MIL 56.38
HOU 58.97
edited to remove some decimals
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:49 pm
by Crow
ATL 25
BKN 40
BOS 54
CHA 29
CHI 34
CLE 15
DAL 41
DEN 57
DET 36
GSW 46
HOU 51
IND 50
LAC 46
LAL 50
MEM 27
MIA 53
MIL 61
MIN 30
NOP 37
NYK 30
OKC 33
ORL 41
PHI 52
PHX 32
POR 46
SAC 40
SAS 44
TOR 53
UTA 46
WAS 31
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:32 am
by shadow
tarrazu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:56 pm
Shadow,
Did you use the same methodology this year, teasing out the juice from the Pinnacle Season Win Totals IIRC?
I just did that last year to come up with values to use for the 'Vegas' entry. My own projection is based on a blend of different team/player models.
I forgot to do it this year to get the no-vig win totals for each team. It looks like all of the win totals are still up on Pinnacle except for the four teams playing tonight. So I could still do it if there's interest. If you happen to remember what the recent line was for the four teams playing tonight that would help. I have all the rest and can post it later when I get a chance.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:28 am
by Mike G
What's the Vegas line this year?
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:41 pm
by Mike G
All but 3 of us have predicted the Pistons to win either 36 or 37 games. Avg departure from the average is 1.1
On the Knicks, the range is wide. Even without my own wild guess, the variance averages 3.1
From most to least agreed:
Code: Select all
tm avg highest lowest
NYK 27.4 Mike 41 20 emin
GSW 46.1 emin 59 41 Mike
Cle 23.8 Mike 35 15 Crow
OKC 37.7 ncs. 44 28 Mike
Mem 29.9 ncs. 37 22 Mike
Tor 46.5 Crow 53 38 Mike
Atl 29.6 Rd11 38 25 snd,Cro
Phl 51.8 trzu 55 43 Rd11
Den 51.1 Crow 57 43 Rd11
Bos 47.7 Crow 54 42 Mike
Mia 44.1 Crow 53 36 Mike
Phx 33.6 Rd11 41 30 gold
Was 31.6 Rd11 39 28 Mike
SAS 41.4 trzu 47 37 emin
Cha 27.5 Rd11 35 24 trzu
NOP 40.5 ncs. 48 36 emin
LAL 49.0 Mike 55 44 Rd11
Por 42.5 Mike 47 37 Rd11
Mil 56.1 Crow 61 53 Mike
Dal 42.4 trzu 47 37 ncs.
Uta 50.5 emin 57 47 sndi
Brk 39.2 shad 43 36 snd,trz
Min 38.6 lisp 41 30 Crow
LAC 50.9 emin 56 46 Crow
Ind 43.3 Crow 50 41 Rd11
Hou 55.0 lisp 59 50 Rd11
Sac 36.3 Crow 40 33 emin
Chi 36.8 Rd11 41 33 shad
Orl 42.3 Mike 46 41 lisp
Det 36.9 Mike 41 33 gold
I didn't regress to .500 as much as usual. Some of you guys evade this list entirely.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2019 2:05 pm
by eminence
Mmkay, so I need the Warriors to win and the Knicks to lose, if the recent past is any sort of indicator I'm in decent shape
And I like the riskier picks Mike
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2019 4:01 pm
by shadow
I teased out the juice from the Pinnacle win totals and scaled them to 1230. Feel free to use these as the values for the 'Vegas' entry if you'd like:
Code: Select all
ATL 33.92
BOS 48.99
BRK 42.28
CHA 21.72
CHI 36.94
CLE 22.51
DAL 43.36
DEN 53.94
DET 38.94
GSW 44.17
HOU 55.27
IND 44.84
LAC 52.43
LAL 50.43
MEM 28.59
MIA 44.59
MIL 54.79
MIN 37.03
NOP 35.93
NYK 25.12
OKC 35.66
ORL 42.33
PHI 55.46
PHX 30.61
POR 46.29
SAC 38.46
SAS 43.72
TOR 46.43
UTA 51.34
WAS 23.92