Elements of same story night: Starters suck, lots of brand new lineups, L.
Giddey SGA Dort negative but only mildly overall. Better not in the starting lineup of the day.
Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
In about 2 weeks, Coach Daigneault will have played as many lineups as Bruce Springsteen has career songs (about 360). When you go to a Coach D "concert", expect almost total auto-shuffle. There are not many hits and it is very unlikely they are on the set list anyways.
Appears to be a coaching version of Russell Westbrook's "I do what I want". No discipline, no apparent guidance. The beyond control individual. Is there coaching talent there? Haven't seen much consistent beyond play hard, have fun. Decided to juice an anemic offense and destroyed the defense.
Presti apparently makes sure the drinks in the refrigerator are exactly lined up. But lineups? Nah. Do what you feel D.
No lineup over 50 minutes. Only 4 over the equivalent of 1 minute per game. 6 most used all negative, from bad to super horrendous, with the most used being super horrendous at -39pts / 100p.
Giddey SGA Dort trio overall last season averaged -10pts / 100p. Same this season. -14pts / 100p over last 5 games. If they can't fix that, they don't know what they are doing on lineups. Coaching. Roster design.
Appears to be a coaching version of Russell Westbrook's "I do what I want". No discipline, no apparent guidance. The beyond control individual. Is there coaching talent there? Haven't seen much consistent beyond play hard, have fun. Decided to juice an anemic offense and destroyed the defense.
Presti apparently makes sure the drinks in the refrigerator are exactly lined up. But lineups? Nah. Do what you feel D.
No lineup over 50 minutes. Only 4 over the equivalent of 1 minute per game. 6 most used all negative, from bad to super horrendous, with the most used being super horrendous at -39pts / 100p.
Giddey SGA Dort trio overall last season averaged -10pts / 100p. Same this season. -14pts / 100p over last 5 games. If they can't fix that, they don't know what they are doing on lineups. Coaching. Roster design.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Coach D goes with the horrendous starting lineup and gets horrendous early results. -65 pts / 100p.
14 players have played with SGA - Dort. 5 negative, 9 non-negative for season. Coach D makes the starting lineup with 3 of their partners with worst results. The other two see occasional time as starters.
Some players get offsetting positive team results later in this game. Giddey just neutral after the start.
I Joe, amazing night. Super strong results with SGA - Dort in tiny season testing. More testing?
2/3rds of lineups used brand new as usual. Is it hard to be that random?
14 players have played with SGA - Dort. 5 negative, 9 non-negative for season. Coach D makes the starting lineup with 3 of their partners with worst results. The other two see occasional time as starters.
Some players get offsetting positive team results later in this game. Giddey just neutral after the start.
I Joe, amazing night. Super strong results with SGA - Dort in tiny season testing. More testing?
2/3rds of lineups used brand new as usual. Is it hard to be that random?
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Fwiw, the big scoring, bigger opponent scoring streak coincides exactly with Pokusevski's elevation into starting lineup.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Giddey player pair team +/-, 11 negative, 5 positive. The 5 positives are all currently deep bench players. This data is similar though leaning more often negative than last season.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder are 20th on SRS, 24th on W-L. They fight but also are 1 win short of expected wins.
Coach Daigneault with a 31% career win rate is at the 10th percentile among the last 100 coaches in the NBA.
One of the least Moreyball shot distributions. Dead last on defensive rebounding. Now 4th highest rate of fouling.
Giddey on court vs. off, less rebounding at both ends of the court. Team scores 10 pts less per 100p with on vs. off and gives up 9 to the opponent. Almost -19 on / off. Only Jalen Williams a tiny bit worse on team.
Coach Daigneault with a 31% career win rate is at the 10th percentile among the last 100 coaches in the NBA.
One of the least Moreyball shot distributions. Dead last on defensive rebounding. Now 4th highest rate of fouling.
Giddey on court vs. off, less rebounding at both ends of the court. Team scores 10 pts less per 100p with on vs. off and gives up 9 to the opponent. Almost -19 on / off. Only Jalen Williams a tiny bit worse on team.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Jalen Williams, horrible on/off. Last night starter. Unit goes -158pts / 100p in 4 minutes.
What an eye for lineups. Way to be ready to play.
What an eye for lineups. Way to be ready to play.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Giddey - Pokusevski, -17 points in 24 minutes last night, about 250 as bad as the -14pts / 100p for season.
Giddey - no Pokusevski? +19 in 7 minutes. -5 pts / 100p for season.
How will minutes go tonight? The "wrong" answer is obvious and will almost certainly be chosen. There are less bad and even good answers but alas...
Poku / no Giddey is only -1.
Neither on court is almost +14 pts / 100p on average in 284 minutes. But they'll stick with the rigid, unjustified beliefs / hopes / deceptions.
Giddey - no Pokusevski? +19 in 7 minutes. -5 pts / 100p for season.
How will minutes go tonight? The "wrong" answer is obvious and will almost certainly be chosen. There are less bad and even good answers but alas...
Poku / no Giddey is only -1.
Neither on court is almost +14 pts / 100p on average in 284 minutes. But they'll stick with the rigid, unjustified beliefs / hopes / deceptions.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
How many Thunder players will still be on squad in 3 years? I dunno. Could be 10, 7 or 4.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Tonight the same starting unit again started horribly, -10pts in first 3.5 minutes or about -140pts / 48min. Picked despite past failures including the night before. Not used after that, because of embarrassment or enough damage done?
Giddey was tonight's poorest plus-minus at -26. On / off of -39. Giddey - SGA overall was -42pts / 100p.
Giddey was tonight's poorest plus-minus at -26. On / off of -39. Giddey - SGA overall was -42pts / 100p.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder would like at least a top 6 draft lottery rank for at least 2nd tier chances at a high pick. Currently 7th.
6th is possible if Lakers recover. "Higher" than 6th may be fairly unlikely with current approach and health.
2 early names that the Thunder might be able to get (and could use) would be Brandon Miller and Zach Edey.
6th is possible if Lakers recover. "Higher" than 6th may be fairly unlikely with current approach and health.
2 early names that the Thunder might be able to get (and could use) would be Brandon Miller and Zach Edey.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Giddey's DARKO projection trendline is lower than before his rookie debut or any time since. Declining since late last season.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
8 point deficit in first 4 minutes not overcome fully in remainder of game... L.
Tonight's negative starting lineup rises to just -37 pts / 100p for season (according to NBA.com). The previous starting lineup beats it at -45. Such a choice.
Remove the differing, awful 5th man choices and SGA Giddey Dort Poku is -19pts / 100p overall. Other 5th choices are way better.
Remove Giddey and the remaining trio is a still awful -13.
Go to SGA - Dort and that is +1 overall. Plus a lot when with at least some other players to offset the awful groupings.
They fall just short of the 300th lineup due to an unusual low of just 5 new lineups tonight. Accidental or with knowledge / intent, I dunno.
Tonight's negative starting lineup rises to just -37 pts / 100p for season (according to NBA.com). The previous starting lineup beats it at -45. Such a choice.
Remove the differing, awful 5th man choices and SGA Giddey Dort Poku is -19pts / 100p overall. Other 5th choices are way better.
Remove Giddey and the remaining trio is a still awful -13.
Go to SGA - Dort and that is +1 overall. Plus a lot when with at least some other players to offset the awful groupings.
They fall just short of the 300th lineup due to an unusual low of just 5 new lineups tonight. Accidental or with knowledge / intent, I dunno.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Ty Jerome on Warriors:
64% efg%, 71% ts%, 41% 3pt fg%. 250% his previous high ft rate. Best ever BPM (though still slightly negative).
Ahead of all Thunder guards on these stats except SGA's ft rate and Joe's 3pt rate. Ahead of all 5 other guards on BPM beside those 2. Do the good numbers last? We'll see.
Still not special as a total package (assists and steal are down, ft% is weak and defense may too) but good enough role player for Warriors. Thunder did not pull that out of him. Too many development projects ahead of him in favor.
DARKO projection not impressed with him this season for some reason. Career arc was up modestly over the years but only to about -1.5 last season and down a bit this season. Too little, too late? That probably matches Thunder evaluation but is not the last word.
Maledon way up as well though not special as a whole either. Krejci down in limited use. No crying over these 2 departures but I repeatedly favored more time for Jerome and his retention at least for the start of this season. But whatever.
64% efg%, 71% ts%, 41% 3pt fg%. 250% his previous high ft rate. Best ever BPM (though still slightly negative).
Ahead of all Thunder guards on these stats except SGA's ft rate and Joe's 3pt rate. Ahead of all 5 other guards on BPM beside those 2. Do the good numbers last? We'll see.
Still not special as a total package (assists and steal are down, ft% is weak and defense may too) but good enough role player for Warriors. Thunder did not pull that out of him. Too many development projects ahead of him in favor.
DARKO projection not impressed with him this season for some reason. Career arc was up modestly over the years but only to about -1.5 last season and down a bit this season. Too little, too late? That probably matches Thunder evaluation but is not the last word.
Maledon way up as well though not special as a whole either. Krejci down in limited use. No crying over these 2 departures but I repeatedly favored more time for Jerome and his retention at least for the start of this season. But whatever.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Bottom 5 on team ft rate (even with SGA), now bottom 8 on 3pt rate. Moreyball? We'll rely on one leg- shots at rim- and be the 2nd worst at shooting them.
Quite the design.
22 minutes into tonight's game and just one other player with a single trip to line besides SGA.
Quite the design.
22 minutes into tonight's game and just one other player with a single trip to line besides SGA.