2023 Draft notes

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4 weak games in a row for T Smith. But you can be assured that many places on draft twitter will still be pumping him. 7 for last 30 from 3.

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Arkansas and its prospects now 8 - 9 in SEC, 2-4 in last 6. 9th place.

Did not play a true "away" game in non-conference play (just 4 neutrals) then dropped first 5 away games in conference play and now 8 of 10. Brilliant prep.

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Rupert 2 for 17 in last 7 games from shorter international 3pt line. A 10 PER in Australia. Not on my big board.

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Kaluma, BPM estimate of just +3.1. Almost no stat strengths at Tankathon. Not on my big board.

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Scoot Henderson now with 6 weak games in last 9. G league PER down to 15.4. 7 for last 24 from 3.

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Ighodaro, 93rd on ESPN board. 21st on mine.

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With exceptions mostly at the very top, there is a huge disparity between what most teams think of young draft prospects at the draft and what most decent or better teams do with a lot of them after they are on the roster.

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Theory 1: Players who play well in college are more likely to play well in NBA than those who play less well in college.

Theory 2: Players who appear elite by objective standards are more likely to play well in NBA than those advanced as elite moreso by subjective eye tests than objective standards.

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GG Jackson had a very good (not great) game yesterday. So the hype tweets went out.

Hadn't been in my top 100 yet. BPM estimate of -0.1 for season. So still isn't, but that could change with more good games. Only 4 games over GS15 out of 32 tries. Example of a good game over-riding full season in the eyes of some psyched to see the exception as a vision of the future. Not yet for me.

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Disagree to strongly disagree with 10 of Vecenie's 14 lottery ranks.

Vecenie has Whitmore 5th. Currently 46th for me. Zero GS20 plus games for Whitmore and took him til 2 days ago to post back to back GS16 plus games. 10 games of about GS8 to way less. BPM for season now up to 6.4 after being 5 or below most of season.

Still games to play, time to rise up but not deserving of 5th currently.

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The last 25 players direct from international leagues have mostly been draft n stash with those coming over having no positive impact (unless I passed over somebody). Hayes has been bad in many ways, Pokusevski bad individually til recently and still very bad on team results on the court.

Among the draft n stash, I have interest / hope in only a couple though I can't say I've reviewed recent play carefully.
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Outside of Wembanyama and maybe 1-2 others I would not draft international in this draft class.

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Zach Edey, highest BPM in D1 college basketball at +15.2, likely player of year, leader of a 84% win team.

47th to Vecenie, 56th to Tankathon. 4th to me.

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Whitehead with his best GameScore game of the season Friday. Took 25 games to get to GS14. Shot well but rebounds and assists were rare as usual.

Jarace Walker added 7th in last 8 games below GS10 game. But he is a hot topic...

Cam Whitmore followed up his 2nd best game of season with his 2nd worst.

Filipowski with a very up and down season but good in 6 of last 8.

T Smith follows his best game of season with very worst. Lottery or near lottery for some. Not in my top 100. BPM barely about +4.

Jackson-Davis with 17th GS20plus game and many have him in late 2nd round... Whack.

K George below GS10 in 6 of last 8 games. Favored archetype, hype. High lottery for some. Also whack.

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Edey almost certainly with his 17th GS20plus game today.

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Edey GS29 yesterday. 4th best game of his season. 30pts, 13 rebs. Great shooting and zero turnovers.