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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Sat Sep 13, 2025 5:09 am
by Crow
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2025 2:20 am
by Crow
SGA with Giddey in 2024 playoffs net margin was 350% of SGA-Dort. It was middle of pack for main guys, but minutes were reduced.
SGA-Dort went from very good in 2024 to great in 2025 but playoffs net margin was 70% less in 2024 and 60% less in 2025. With Caruso or Wallace were both significantly better. In fact SGA - Dort was 7th best SGA playoff pair of 12 in 2024, 9th of 11 in 2025. Sure strength of opponents faced probably has some impact. But it isn't the foundation by results.
SGA - Hartenstein in playoffs was only neutral to +1 depending on source. Worst pair partner performance.
Not expecting any major change this season. But if they consider change next summer, those are 2 candidates to consider.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2025 11:33 pm
by Crow
By Darko projection, Holmgren is expected to be 50th best. By side ranks, a sorta average 5th best man on offense for an average team (tied for 128th best) and one of the best 2nd best on team defenders (32nd best).
His overall Darko peaked for now at mid-season and declined significantly late. On Darko improvement, he was near bottom 20% in league. O-DPM is the lowest it has been since the first month of his playing career. Defensive DPM improved to career to date peak by mid-season but then lost all of the season gains over prior season.
3pta rate projection never lower. FTA rate essentially never higher and same for at the rim rate.
Jalen Williams is close to a flipside to Holmgren. 33rd best on Darko projection. 33rd on offense, 158th on defense.
Slightly above average on improvement rate. Peaked early in season and then plateaued. Plateaued on offense. Peaked early on defense then gave it all back for no gain over prior season.
At the rim rate drifted to career low then recovered. FTA rate soared to by far career high. 3pta rate was not much changed.
SGA, 3rd best by Darko. 2nd best on offense, top 20% on D. Top 12% on improvement. Career high on overall DPM and offense and super steady climb his whole career. Defensive Darko reached career high then a slight decline.
3pta rate improved some over last 2 seasons but then gave much of it back, going to modestly above career low. FTA rate sliding down from peak 2 years ago.Same for at the rim rate, now near a 4 year low.
Ever see any of this mentioned elsewhere? I haven't.
Very good but changing. Will be watching next season.