APBRmetrics

Every month a less good w-l record. February has worst offense yet. Most 3s made per game but also most turnovers and worst FT%. Most offensive rebounds but least stocks. Defensive rating has been steady for 3 months. Opponents with least turnovers and most stocks. Least FTAs and worst FT%. Most FGM.

-3 actual wins compared to net margin expected.

21 lineups last night. 10 of the 13 smallest negative with one neutral. 4 of biggest 8 positive. Too much experimentation imo, not near enough winning time. 15 never before used lineups. Could have been 5 or 8 new and 15 or less lineups. But Daigneault loves to play around.

Dort has a -2 BPM and a -3 raw on / off. Shooting efficiency is least good in 3 seasons. Short mid-tange is horrible, longer mid-range is great.

Darko has him as 127th best. Top 40% on offensive, top 15% on defense. But bottom 20% on recent change. Peak to date overall and on defense came at beginning of season. Offensive peak was 2.5 years ago.

Pay to stay, at what price, or not?

$50 million over the the Thunder picked up all team options for next season, they'd be $50 million over the tax level and close to $30 million over the 2nd apron. They'd owe over $200 million in tax.

I expect changes but don't know how many or which. Dort and Hartenstein are the biggest pieces but others could be released or traded.

Bill Duffy representation of Jalen Williams and Holmgren could be a concern in longer term. Also represents Doncic and several other Lakers.

5 possible 1st round opponents. Doubt Thunder will maneuver for or against but will they?

Thunder depth is both a game & season management strategy and an emerging salary cap strategy. Still need to see what Prest does this off-season and next to understand the design. Lots of options is part of the design and part of the mystery.

Lineups total reaches 672.

Arguments for this include keeping guys ready and reasonably content and making them think.

Arguments against include 2nd lowest concentration / testing on 5 most used lineups among top 10 contenders. almost 10 new lineups every game and an average lineup usage of barely 5 minutes for the season.

Could do all of the first group of positives in a different way with far far fewer lineups.

Minutes distribution and size analysis:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2037 ... 48724?s=20

If the draft follows consensus, the Thunder should have a variety of good or even great options, imo.

2/3rds of minutes given to 5 most used lineups so far in playoffs. I'd do that or close to that in regular season too. I take this as justification for concentration.

Starter minutes are decent but could be higher or much higher. Next biggest lineup immediately jumps to SGA and 4 bench and lots of others with 2-4 bench. I generally want to see a lot of 4 starters and 1 bench. Will study more.

1st round factor rankings:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2049 ... 20292?s=20

With the roster as is, Spotrac says Thunder are $49 million over the luxury tax line and would owe $213 million in tax next season without changes.

Assume they make moves to get tax to $100 million or less.

Easier half done, the tougher tasks start next week.

Conference finals not yet set against Spurs, bit assuming it will be.

1W-4L. 82 lineups. Starters were -5 pts / 100p but only in 3 games. I highly doubt 2nd and 3rd most used lineups get used. 4th was good, 5th terrible. Both depend on JDub being available and helpful. 6th & 7th terrible, 8th neutral, 9th bad.

Only 4 of 82 lineups got 10+ minutes across all games. What do they know against Spurs? Almost nothing at lineup level. What's good? Very little.

Past is not necessarily predictive. But it is a worry. The matchups. The lineup management. The results.

Only 1 of 16 most used Thunder pairs was positive against Spurs. SGA - Caruso. Will that be prominent in series? Successful?

Wiggins had a few of the rare positive pairs, Will they come back / work?

Plenty of combinations of Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Ajay Mitchell did well, a few didn't. Will they play the good ones more and less Dort, Wallace & Joe?

SGA - Dort vs Spurs was -15. SGA - Wallace, -12. SGA - Joe, -39. Small samples but does it move you or not, or when?