APBRmetrics

Jokic is at career low usage (23.5%) but 2nd best ts%. 2nd best defensive rebounding. Best assists, steals, blocks and 3pta rates. Career low offensive rebounding rate. Fairly near career low FT rate. Career and all-tim3 recorded high BPM.

Is this the new long-term version of Jokic or just a season start?

15 shots per game is around 25% less than his peak last season but it is his career average.

6 straight seasons of league best BPM. Still All-time career leader. 20% above LeBron, 12% above Jordan. Acknowledged by many as today's best. No GOAT talk though.



Doncic up to 4th, passing Magic Johnson. Career best BPM by almost 20%. Could catch James, possibly Jordan. Giannis A. up to 9th with his best ever BPM (and 2nd best ever) so far this season. Could make and move up in top 5 soon. Leonard, Curry, Durant and Harden just outside top 10 and only movement beyond rank between just them will be down a little. SGA into top 20 of those scored / qualified. Nobody else an ascendant threat for top 20 right now. A Davis 17th but probably slips back some with time.

Of players listed as Center at b-r.com, there are 13 who avg 10+ FGA per game.
All but one has attempted some 3-pointers. Half have raised their eFG% by shooting 3's -- compared to their 2pt FG% -- and half have been hurt. Among 68 players with as many 3fga as Jokic, 8 have worse 3fg%.

Fwiw, at this point, Bulls and Lakers +2 over expected wins based on SRS. Celtics -2.

Kings have 2nd highest minute weight age behind Clippers. Quite an issue for current and last season performance.

Last season, 3 below 24. This season, none (bately).

10 strong teams by SRS. Neatly all above average on own scoring. Close to 50-50 on opponent scoring.

[Jokic has ...]6 straight seasons of league best BPM. Still All-time career leader. 20% above LeBron, 12% above Jordan..
...
Doncic up to 4th, passing Magic Johnson.

Joker is 30, and Luka is 26, so we could compare them to others at these ages.
Separated into retired and current players: Jokic is 2nd only to Jordan thru age 30. Luka -- the bad news is he's only 7th at age 26 -- yet among those who came before, age 30 averages 14.6% better career BPM than at 26. This would put him at 8.8, behind only Jordan, Jokic, and LeBron.
Only players in this top 25 who were/are lower at 30 than at 26: Erving, McGrady, and A Davis.

Avg BPM ratios thru these ages/totals: * - Julius Erving's BPM thru age 26 contains his last 3 ABA years and his 1st NBA year.
** - Kareem's age 26 is only one season, 1974, coming after by far his 3 best years according to WS and PER.
If we assign 9.0 BPM to his at26, the retired 26/T avg rises to 1.03; and their 30/26 ratio exactly matches the current one.
Most of these guys did not step into the league as a top-5 player as Doncic did, before developing 1st-round HOF careers.

Doncic outstanding with a number of stats at career best. Two exceptions are lowest 3pt fg% since 2nd season and only 8th best raw team +/- on court and on / off.

Last playoffs, 3pt fg% was modestly below playoff average and raw team +/- on court was only 10th best at -6.1. 7th best on / off.

"during Harrison's four-plus-year tenure, which was highlighted by runs to the 2022 Western Conference finals and 2024 NBA Finals. The Mavs were 135-88 in regular-season games in which Doncic played during that time and 47-69 otherwise."

The difference is a .605 Win% when Luka played vs .405 when he didn't. And he missed just over 1/3 of games.
That .200 diff over the 223 Mavs games in which he appeared suggests ~45 wins in 4+ seasons that they would not have won without him.

He had 31 Win Shares in these 4+ regular seasons.
Playoffs are a different matter. He didn't miss 1/3 of games and was seemingly better.

Thru roughly 16 games, correlations between team success -- SRS -- and some other team and opponent stats.
Negative correlations marked with -. 3 point attempt rate (3fga/FGA) are negatively correlated to eFG% and TS% (-.12) and also to FTr (-.28)
Bos and Cle are bottom 10 in 3fg% but tops in frequency. Hou is first in % and with league fewest attempts.

Per-game home attendance is bigger than a lot of things!

Lots of elements are low correlation for full league but what about for top 8?

Lg Top 8
corr. stat
.88 ORtg .54
-.82 - DRtg -.44
.70 TS% -.12?
.66 eFG% -.40
-.66 - Op.eFG% -.33
.48 Op.TO% -.06
-.37 - TO% -.51
.30 DRB% .42
.28 ORB% .32
.17 FT/FGA .08
-.13 - Op.FT/FGA -.58
.12 Age -.33
-.11 3PAr -.17
-.14 Pace -.39

Within top 8, shooting / scoring efficiency is way less defining. Defensive rebounding a little more important. Op.FT/FGA way more correlated. Op.eFG% less correlated.
Within group, youth is moderately correlated as is slower pace.

Thunder and Rockets lead league with young & "slow". Thunder with edge on shooting / scoring efficiency and surprisingly defensive rebounding. Rockets with edge of less fouling and way way more offensive rebounding.

Top 8 is sort of a narrow group for correlation but imo important to see.

Of course when you are comparing good teams to other good teams, specific stat advantages will become more random.
The top 8 teams shoot over .600 TS% on avg. The bottom 8 shoot .560. Without this significant difference, there is little differentiation within the subsets.

The factors that make a team good are the same ones that show why a team is not so good.

Winning in regular season and winning in late playoffs can be different as advantages and disadvantages change in the matchups.

Right now, the 8 best teams by SRS vary by almost 3%pts on efg%. By end of longer sample last regular season that difference was 2%pts. In smaller sample, different playoff environment it was 5%pts on average.

In the playoffs after the 1st round, the net efg% matchup differences got as big as 9.5%pts and the absolute top to bottom performances reached 10.5%pts.

This is very different than what the regular season top 8 correlation data shows.

More to consider, try to sort out.

Comparing the conferences:

East is 1.2 years younger on minutes weighted average age. The west is 1 point better because of defense. East shoots slightly more 3s, west slightly more FTAs. West turns it over more but offensive rebounds more. And gives up a higher FT/ FGA.

By record to date against the west, Timberwolves and Rockets may warrant some 1st level concern, looking ahead to playoffs.

Only Pistons and Raptors have elite records against east, in the east. Bucks may warrant a bit more concern than others, though all this is raw, before SOS and home / away considerations.

On Shot Quality from different angles:

Shotquality.com offers this team summary table

Team adj SQ adjOFF SQ adjDEF SQ
Boston Celtics 0.061 1.174 1.111
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.052 1.192 1.145
Denver Nuggets 0.053 1.193 1.1511
Oklahoma City Thunder 0.044 1.169 1.122
New York Knicks 0.035 1.175 1.146
Los Angeles Clippers 0.036 1.176 1.147
Miami Heat 0.027 1.161 1.134
Indiana Pacers 0.028 1.177 1.1512
Los Angeles Lakers 0.029 1.178 1.1513
Sacramento Kings 0.021 1.1611 1.148
Phoenix Suns 0.0211 1.21 1.1829
Minnesota Timberwolves 0.0112 1.1517 1.1515
Golden State Warriors 0.0113 1.1516 1.149
Milwaukee Bucks 0.0014 1.1612 1.1514
Chicago Bulls -0.0115 1.1421 1.1518
Portland Trail Blazers -0.0116 1.1422 1.1519
Memphis Grizzlies -0.0117 1.1613 1.1722
San Antonio Spurs -0.0118 1.1518 1.1516
Detroit Pistons -0.0119 1.1519 1.1517
Dallas Mavericks -0.012 1.1614 1.162
Atlanta Hawks -0.0221 1.152 1.1723
Utah Jazz -0.0222 1.1615 1.183
Houston Rockets -0.0323 1.0929 1.123
Toronto Raptors -0.0324 1.1423 1.1724
Orlando Magic -0.0425 1.1127 1.141
Philadelphia 76ers -0.0426 1.1324 1.1725
New Orleans Pelicans -0.0427 1.1325 1.1726
Charlotte Hornets -0.0528 1.1128 1.1621
Washington Wizards -0.0629 1.1226 1.1727
Brooklyn Nets -0.073 1.09


and has player detail / rankings

BBall-Index.com can show shot quality vs actual and by distance

Databallr has shotquality and defensive shot quality courtesy of shotquality.com.

NBAdotcom shows median efg% on shots very tightly contested (0-2 feet to defender) is about 7%pts lower than overall league average. Only 5-10% of shots are defended as such by team. The Thundee make 59% but only on 5% of attempts. Pacers are making 36% of 7% of attempts. Rockets and Nuggets close to median efg%. Nuggets on about 7%, Rockets on about 9%.

Rockets 3rd best on wide open shots (6+ feet to defender) but 5th least such shots. Philly similar. Thunder top on frequency but below average on efg%. Bucks tops on efg% and average on frequency. Lots of variety. Mavs dead last on efg% and below average on frequency. Celtics average o efg%, modestly above average on frequency. Warriors slightly above average on efg%, 3rd on frequency. Lakers average on efg%, 5th lowest on frequency.



ShotQuality.com also had this for general perspective on shot quality influence at rim (although it is NCAA):

Closest Defender Height NCAAM Layup FG%
< 6-0 68%
< 6-6 57%
< 7-0 51%
>= 7-0 48%