APBRmetrics

Posted: **Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:09 am**

Mike G wrote:What's the best way to sort the teams? East and West, alphabetically? Best to worst?

Best to worst imo

Posted: **Mon Nov 04, 2013 4:14 pm**

ESPN Fall Forecast (in addition to ESPN Summer Forecast):

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/stor ... -standings
http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/stor ... -standings

Posted: **Thu Nov 07, 2013 8:17 pm**

I expect New Orleans will end up with less than 35 wins (the lowest prediction posted here). It would not surprise me much if it ends up under 30.

Posted: **Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:44 pm**

After 8.6% of the season, it's a tight race.
I've included last year's pythagorean wins as a 'participant'. Avg 'error' from projected wins (current wins + pyth% of remaining games)

Code: Select all

.     avg err           avg err
416x   10.06      ATC    10.85
jBro   10.17      eW     11.42
deep   10.20      jank   11.44
ncs    10.61      Yoop   11.92
Bobb   10.63      13Py   12.04
hDon   10.76      fpli   12.70

The guy with the most 'out there' predictions is leading.

Team projections relative to our average predictions:

Code: Select all

diff   tm   avg  pyth+     diff   tm   avg  pyth+
30.5   Phx   23   53       -2.2   Cha   28   26
17.4   Ind   52   69       -2.2   Det   40   38
16.9   Orl   25   42       -5.0   Okl   54   49
13.4   Phl   19   32       -5.8   Hou   54   48
13.3   Bos   27   40       -6.8   LAC   57   50
13.1   Por   39   52       -7.2   Mia   59   52
13.1   Min   43   56       -7.8   Chi   53   45
11.0   GSW   46   56       -9.0   Den   43   34
8.5    SAS   56   64      -10.8   Sac   31   20
6.3    Atl   41   48      -12.7   LAL   33   20
6.0    NOP   38   44      -13.9   Cle   39   25
3.7    Dal   44   48      -18.2   Mem   51   33
3.5    Mil   32   35      -18.6   NYK   46   28
3.2    Tor   39   42      -19.6   Uta   29    9
-1.7   Was   37   36      -21.4   Brk   54   33

I should've stuck with my original prediction for Utah.
There's no strength of schedule -- either to date or in the future -- considered here. The Suns have actually had a pretty tough schedule so far.

Posted: **Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:22 pm**

Mike, thanks for doing this. Could you tell me where you got the pyth wins projection? I can't find them. Thanks.

Posted: **Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:38 pm**

I have a spreadsheet from last year and this year that calculates Pyth% and Pyth Wins
You can see them here, under Miscellaneous Stats:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... _2013.html

It's under PW, whole numbers without decimals.

Posted: **Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:29 pm**

What's up with the Nets? I picked them to win 60 games (high among us), our avg estimate was 54, and they're headed for 30 or less (shellacked by the Kings last night).

Should they bench Garnett? Blatche has been even worse! Evans is doing nothing.
Is anything wrong with Kirilenko?

Posted: **Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:43 pm**

Mike G wrote:What's up with the Nets? I picked them to win 60 games (high among us), our avg estimate was 54, and they're headed for 30 or less (shellacked by the Kings last night).

Should they bench Garnett? Blatche has been even worse! Evans is doing nothing.
Is anything wrong with Kirilenko?

A lot of this plus more.

I, too, was very high on them. I'm changing my tune on them, but alas, wont help much for predictions

KG wont be this horrible, but there comes a point in every man's career when he just doesn't have "it" anymore. This could be the end for KG; even his defensive stuff looks pretty abysmal.

AK is hurt every other day so this shouldn't have been a surprise. Blatche has majorly regressed, etc etc. The only guy playing pretty well is BLOPEZ.

Posted: **Thu Nov 14, 2013 3:03 pm**

We'll assume you are right in this and all matters, as long as you are leading our miserable group of predictors.
Note that you didn't get better, but the rest got worse, since Tuesday.

Code: Select all

Bobb   10.62      ATC    11.53
ncs    10.77       eW    11.55
deep   10.86      Yoop   11.89
jBro   10.90      jank   12.04
416x   10.92      13Py   12.24
hDon   11.24      fpli   13.09

On average, we're about 1 game better than someone who just repeated last year's finish (13Py)
The ESPN group is faring just as badly as we are.

The only guy playing pretty well is BLOPEZ.

Would you call him that to his face?

Posted: **Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:14 pm**

Pierce has been really good, but Brooklyn have had a pretty tough schedule so far.

Posted: **Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:25 pm**

v-zero wrote:Pierce has been really good, but Brooklyn have had a pretty tough schedule so far.

How is playing 2 good teams, and 4 bad teams "having a tough schedule". BBR says they had the 7th easiest schedule, and I pretty much agree

Posted: **Fri Nov 15, 2013 1:16 am**

Mike G wrote:
The only guy playing pretty well is BLOPEZ.
Would you call him that to his face?

Perhaps. From The Association last year (profiling the Nets), he seemed like a pretty reasonable quiet spoken guy. Don't think I'd say that to Matt Barnes, however...

Posted: **Fri Nov 15, 2013 1:21 pm**

J.E. wrote:How is playing 2 good teams, and 4 bad teams "having a tough schedule". BBR says they had the 7th easiest schedule, and I pretty much agree

I wouldn't say Cleveland or Washington are bad teams, but I see your point.

Posted: **Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:32 pm**

At 1/8 of the season:

Code: Select all

jBro    9.75      deep   10.63
hDon   10.18      ATC    11.02
Bobb   10.19      Yoop   11.17
ncs    10.33       eW    11.41
416x   10.34      fpli   11.50
jank   10.59      13Py   12.79

Bests and Worsts at this point; 2-way ties are mentioned, beyond that they aren't.
j Brocato is dead on with Tor, LAL; one game off on Bos; worst pick on none.
hDon also perfect on Tor as well as Sac; tied for best on Bos and also worst on none.
Bobbo is doing best on LAL, SAS, Cle; worst on Mem
ncs is closest on Mia, Phl; worst on Min
416x is best on Brk, Por, NYK, Min; worst on Chi, Det, GSW, Ind, Uta
j Frankel is best with Chi; worst on Phx, Okl
deepak is best on Cha, GSW, LAC, Orl; worst on Cle, Dal, Mia, Mil, SAS, Tor
ATC is best on Ind; worst on Cha, NOP, Orl
Yoop is best of the bad on Phx; worst on LAL, Mem, Phl, Por, Sac
eWins is best on Hou, Was; worst on Den, Brk, NYK, Por
fpliii is best on Mil, Okl; worst on Atl, Bos, LAC, Min, Phx, Was

13Pyth has been the best predictor on Cle, Det, and Brk; worst on about 9.

Posted: **Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:09 pm**

FWIW, my Min stuff is based on assumption that their players won't be fully healthy, since they haven't been year over year- but they have been quite healthy to start the year. Of course, everyone else's predictions probably have similar issues, too.

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