Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:41 pm
Wow, looking at the RPM estimates that would have to be a record (or close) for gap between 1 and 2 seeds I would think at 13 games. I assume OKC is factoring in Durant's injury?
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Predictions 2014-2015
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Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:10 pm
Apologies for not including McAdoo and perhaps others, but here's where my GSW win total comes from (Though, below a certain minute%, players are gradually forced to roughly -3):
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:18 pm
jordan crawford is currently a member of the xinjiang flying tigersbbstats wrote:Apologies for not including McAdoo and perhaps others, but here's where my GSW win total comes from (Though, below a certain minute%, players are gradually forced to roughly -3):
and jermaine o'neal is gone as well
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:01 am
May I ask how you're calculating WARP/pWins from the RPM values? The same calculation I use with RAPM to derive WARP worked out horribly with RPM when I did a retrodiction comparing the two.
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:02 am
I'm hoping to get projections done for the league. My approach is a little labor intensive because I suck at programming. 
Projecting minutes is a pain.
Projecting minutes is a pain.
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:05 pm
Those pWins seem to result from the equation:jimmytonic wrote:May I ask how you're calculating WARP/pWins from the RPM values? The same calculation I use with RAPM to derive WARP worked out horribly with RPM when I did a retrodiction comparing the two.
pW = (RPM + 3.06)*Min/1483
The season starts on Tuesday.
Anyone submitting a prediction should get theirs in before any team takes the floor.
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:11 pm
Ditto. Word for word.kjb wrote:I'm hoping to get projections done for the league. My approach is a little labor intensive because I suck at programming.
Projecting minutes is a pain.
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 3:36 pm
Wins Created = Wins Above Average + 20% x 0.500 x Minutes/48
(then force-fit to pythagorean wins)
where
Wins Above Average = 82x(Normdist function of x=projected RPMxMinutes%, avg=0, stdev=12.247, cumulative=1)-41
So I just ran the following fix
and the Warriors jumped to 1st in the West.
This includes 14 of their possible roster's players.
*scratches head furiously*
(then force-fit to pythagorean wins)
where
Wins Above Average = 82x(Normdist function of x=projected RPMxMinutes%, avg=0, stdev=12.247, cumulative=1)-41
So I just ran the following fix
and the Warriors jumped to 1st in the West.
This includes 14 of their possible roster's players.
*scratches head furiously*
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:45 pm
a lot of gsw's success this year may come down to removing jackson, and hence getting rid of all those hockey substitutions and the "barnes iso thing".
ofc kerr may put iggy on the bench (?), so idunno...
ofc kerr may put iggy on the bench (?), so idunno...
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:19 pm
fivethirtyeight just put them at #1 in the west with their RPM/WAR-based predictions
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:12 am
When things die down I'll post my minutes projections last year and how off I was. If any of you saved your own minutes I'd do the same. It'd be interesting to see how this can be improved.Statman wrote:Who in this group is maybe the best at predicting minutes (% season minutes) for players? I think it'd be interesting if a bunch of us predicted the team results based on the same projected minutes for every player - and see how much our projections might vary despite the constant at individual minutes played.
Plus, it'd make it so much easier for me, because I STILL don't really know how to best project player minutes. And yes, I'm lazy - hoping someone will do part of my work for me......
And it'd be cool to do predictions based on the same set of minutes....
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:42 pm
Can't tell if anybody's keeping track of this like prior years? Anywho, here's my updated numbers:
Code: Select all
CLE 60.0
GSW 56.9
LAC 56.4
SAS 55.1
OKC 55.0
DAL 53.6
MEM 52.1
TOR 47.1
CHI 47.0
WAS 46.7
HOU 46.6
POR 46.2
MIA 45.1
ATL 41.3
IND 41.0
PHO 40.2
NOP 40.0
CHA 38.7
DET 38.2
DEN 37.0
BRK 37.0
UTA 35.7
MIN 34.8
NYK 31.3
SAC 29.2
BOS 29.1
ORL 28.2
MIL 25.4
LAL 21.6
PHI 13.7Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:18 pm
i can keep track.
here are my updated predictions using corrected rosters:
here are my updated predictions using corrected rosters:
Code: Select all
SAS 58.5
OKC 56.8
GSW 55.8
CLE 54.8
LAC 54.8
DAL 54.2
CHI 52.1
MEM 52.0
MIA 51.8
HOU 47.0
WAS 46.7
TOR 45.4
ATL 45.1
POR 44.9
PHO 44.1
BRK 43.8
IND 41.0
MIN 39.8
NYK 38.0
NOP 35.5
CHA 33.9
DEN 33.4
DET 32.4
ORL 28.4
SAC 28.1
BOS 27.5
MIL 24.5
LAL 22.9
UTA 20.4
PHI 16.4
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:58 pm
Here are mine:
CLE 60.5
LAC 59.0
SAS 54.6
OKC 52.7
DAL 49.6
TOR 48.5
CHI 48.2
GSW 48.1
CHA 47.3
HOU 45.8
ATL 45.5
PHO 44.0
MEM 43.6
POR 43.3
WAS 42.5
BKN 40.0
DEN 39.8
MIA 39.4
NOP 39.3
DET 36.4
NYK 35.6
IND 35.1
SAC 33.5
LAL 32.0
MIN 32.0
UTA 31.8
BOS 30.1
ORL 28.3
MIL 26.3
PHI 17.2
CLE 60.5
LAC 59.0
SAS 54.6
OKC 52.7
DAL 49.6
TOR 48.5
CHI 48.2
GSW 48.1
CHA 47.3
HOU 45.8
ATL 45.5
PHO 44.0
MEM 43.6
POR 43.3
WAS 42.5
BKN 40.0
DEN 39.8
MIA 39.4
NOP 39.3
DET 36.4
NYK 35.6
IND 35.1
SAC 33.5
LAL 32.0
MIN 32.0
UTA 31.8
BOS 30.1
ORL 28.3
MIL 26.3
PHI 17.2
Re: Predictions 2014-2015
Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:17 am
Code: Select all
CLE 57.8
LAC 54.8
SAS 54.5
GSW 53.8
DAL 53.3
OKC 53.1
CHI 50.5
MEM 48.6
TOR 47.0
HOU 46.4
MIA 46.3
WAS 45.3
POR 45.0
ATL 43.5
PHO 42.6
CHA 39.7
BRK 38.6
NOP 38.6
IND 37.8
MIN 37.5
DET 35.5
DEN 35.3
NYK 34.3
ORL 30.7
BOS 30.3
SAC 29.9
UTA 29.0
MIL 27.3
LAL 24.6
PHI 18.4