APBRmetrics

Posted: **Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:33 pm**

This came up in another thread: Through the history of the NBA, how has the changing playoff schedule affected the players of different eras, in terms of their postseason opportunities?
In general, when the league has expanded, they've increased the # of teams in the playoffs. There have been periods of best-of-3 opening series, best-of-5, byes for some teams, and tiebreakers that don't count, statistically.
Counting up the # of playoff games each year, dividing by the # of teams in the league; then smoothing by a 7-year avg (+ and - 3 yrs)

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yr  G/tm      yr  G/tm      yr  G/tm      yr  G/tm
15   2.7      99   2.4      83   2.5      67   3.0
14   2.8      98   2.5      82   2.5      66   3.0
13   2.8      97   2.5      81   2.4      65   3.1
12   2.8      96   2.6      80   2.2      64   3.1
11   2.8      95   2.6      79   2.3      63   3.1
10   2.8      94   2.6      78   2.4      62   3.0
09   2.8      93   2.7      77   2.4      61   3.0
08   2.8      92   2.7      76   2.5      60   2.9
07   2.8      91   2.8      75   2.4      59   2.8
06   2.9      90   2.8      74   2.5      58   2.7
05   2.8      89   2.8      73   2.5      57   2.8
04   2.7      88   2.9      72   2.5      56   2.7
03   2.7      87   3.0      71   2.6      55   2.7
02   2.6      86   2.9      70   2.7      54   2.6
01   2.6      85   2.8      69   2.8      53   2.6
00   2.5      84   2.7      68   2.9      52   2.4

The lowest year ever was 1983, at 1.9 pog/Tm -- followed by almost the highest ever in '84, 3.4 :
Lots of sweeps, followed by longer format and lots of full-length series.
The 64-year avg is 2.73

Posted: **Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:47 am**

The Warriors lose by 20, and we still have 2 of the 5 best SRS in NBA history.

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11.96   SAS  2016
11.91   Mil  1971
11.80   Chi  1996
11.65   LAL  1972
10.97   GSW  2016

10.70   Mil  1972
10.70   Chi  1997
10.07   Chi  1992
10.01   GSW  2015
9.31    Bos  2008

Spurs now a full point per game better; when they play at the same pace, the difference is greater.
Those early 70s dynasties were thriving in a relatively uncompetitive NBA. Maybe we'll quantify that someday.

Meanwhile -- on the same night! -- both the Sixers and the Lakers won!
The probability of a .061 event followed by a .156 event: .009
The Sixers won at Sacto, with the Kings basically an NBA avg team when at home.
Lakers at Boston: Worst team in the west over best in the east?

West currently has the 3 best teams; East with the next 6, and 10 of the next 12.
Pistons project to 43 wins, 10th in the East; Blazers with 37 should be in the playoffs.

Spurs now favored to win the West (48-41%); and the Finals, vs Bos (19%), Ind (18), Cle (17), Tor (13) ...

Posted: **Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:39 am**

I know you listed Boston as best in the East because of their SRS, but they have to have about the weirdest distribution of point differentials I've seen. They hardly play close games. Which is more believable: their SRS, or their fivethirtyeight ELO (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/)?

Posted: **Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:05 pm**

I did put a question mark after it, since it seems to change often. A couple weeks ago, it was Charlotte.

The Sixers won at Sacto, with the Kings basically an NBA avg team when at home.
Lakers at Boston: Worst team in the west over best in the east?

It was also easier than saying "one of the best according to SRS" or finding their actual pre-game odds of winning. Losing at home to the Lakers was a fairly extreme statistical event. Had both LAL and Phl won at home against almost-as-bad teams, it would be a different story.

Once you depart from the 'simple' aspect of SRS, you invite ever more complicated analyses. A mid-season trade may make a team quite different. Players injured or returning, a coaching change, teams that seem to pull out the close games, or do better than most in back-to-backs, or have little home court advantage. Where do you stop?

One can weight by recency, to try and incorporate whatever factors are determining trends: 1st game of the season might weigh .19, G2 = .20, etc, until game 82 = 1.00
I did this with SAS and GSW, and the Spurs are like a runaway train vs a wagon train right now.
Of course, we're not yet at midseason; this would be most helpful anticipating the playoffs.
And then, you have to adjust for 'tanking' / 'resting the starters' late in the year.

Simple is good for now.

Posted: **Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:25 pm**

Steph Curry has 140 3FG this year; 2nd most is Paul George with 98. Curry thus has 43% more 3's than anyone else, which is the biggest % margin in the category since Darrell Griffith (91) had 139% more than Michael Cooper (38) back in 1985.

Andre Drummond's 17% rebound lead over DeAndre Jordan (531-454) is the biggest in 11 years; in 2005, it was Garnett 1108, Marion 915, a 1.21 ratio.

Rajon Rondo has 12% more assists than anyone else -- 347 vs 310 for Westbrook. Go back to 2009 for a bigger advantage, C Paul 861-725 over D Williams , a 19% gap.

Westbrook leads in steals over Kyle Lowry, 85-73, a 1.16 ratio.
Back in 2010, Rondo beat out Curry 189-152, a decisive 1.24

Hassan Whiteside blocks 56% more shots than anyone else, 125-80 over DeAndre Jordan.
Back in 2012 the young shotblocking machine was Serge Ibaka, 80% better than that same DeAndre, 241-134.

Posted: **Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:49 pm**

Statman wrote:
Mike G wrote:Hassan Whiteside....
Why is he getting only 28 mpg?
Believe me, I have wondered this for over a year now. His foul rate is not an issue. Maybe it's a cardio thing, going after SO MANY shots on the defensive end has to be a bit exhausting for a big.

According to b-r.com, his net on-off is -4.1

According to ESPN, his Defensive RPM is 3.13 -- 10th best among centers, 15th among all players.
But he's a real drag on offense, his O-RPM at -2.32 putting him 64th among 73 players listed at C.
Just below Josh Smith (?) on offense. Yes, the PF-SF J Smoove.

Posted: **Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:25 pm**

Mike G wrote: According to ESPN, his Defensive RPM is 3.13 -- 10th best among centers, 15th among all players.
But he's a real drag on offense, his O-RPM at -2.32 putting him 64th among 73 players listed at C.
Just below Josh Smith (?) on offense. Yes, the PF-SF J Smoove.

Funny, the basic team #'s for him on/off court are about the opposite the RPM #'s. The team appears to be a better offensive team in terms of efficiency with him on the court (107.2 Orat on to a 102.5 off) & a worse defensive team (105.7 Drat on to 98.1 off)

I would assume the Heat are worse to much worse in transition defense when Hassan is on the court (Hassan not getting back effectively?) - & probably worse to much worse with him on the court against teams that move the ball around alot, &/or effectively use pick & roll (getting him & his aggressive shot blocking instincts out of position?).

That being said - having a player with his skill set should be a big plus, which makes me feel that there is a coaching (or maybe player listening/responding) issue, where effective changes just aren't being made to allow for his talents to be optimized at the team level.

Posted: **Thu Jan 07, 2016 12:06 pm**

Career leaders in VORP since 1974:

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RS      VORP     PO
104.4  Jordan   22.8
104.0  LeBron   23.7
102.5  Malone   11.2
94.1   Garnett   8.8
93.5   Barkley  11.3
88.4   Duncan   18.4

LeBron has 3.0 vorp in 32 games this year, so he should pass MJ in the next week or two.
Including PO, he's already at #1.
Duncan is on pace to gain another 2.5 or so (4.0 total) this season. He's picking up about 1 per 20 games these days.

Posted: **Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:37 pm**

Top career VORP totals thru a given age.
Showing the top 5 in VORP; then others with top 5 in Win Shares

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VORP    - 22     WS     VORP   - 24     WS
29.0   LeBron   49.3    50.7  LeBron   84.8
18.2   Paul     37.0    31.2  Paul     62.5
17.1   McGrady  35.5    31.1  McGrady  60.1
17.0   Magic    29.8    29.4  Jordan   53.6
16.9   Shaq     41.4    29.1  Magic    52.5
12.1   Dwight   38.4    24.9  Durant   69.4
12.7   Durant   38.2    22.1  Dwight   65.4
.                       24.4  Kobe     62.8

VORP    - 26     WS     VORP   - 28     WS
69.8   LeBron  118.8    87.1  LeBron   152.6 
51.5   Jordan   92.4    69.6  Jordan   130.4
45.4   Barkley  80.4    62.5  Garnett  112.9
43.5   Garnett  78.4    59.7  Barkley  106.1
42.8   Paul     89.1    53.6  Paul     115.2
35.3   Durant   93.4    40.7  Nowitzki 114.1
30.1   Dwight   87.5

VORP    - 30    WS      VORP   - 32     WS
101.   LeBron  178.9   104.0  LeBron   184.3
78.5   Jordan  147.6    87.6  Jordan   170.4   
75.1   Garnett 138.4    83.3  Garnett  158.4
71.6   Barkley 129.4    81.9  Barkley  150.5
68.5   Magic   136.8    76.1  Magic    152.2
48.2  Nowitzki 137.9    55.4  Nowitzki 161.3
.                       67.0  Shaq     156.3

VORP    - 34    WS      VORP   - 36     WS
104.   LeBron  184.3   104.0  LeBron   184.3
99.8   Jordan  204.5    99.8  Jordan   204.5
90.0   Barkley 168.5    93.5  Barkley  177.2
89.1   Garnett 174.7    93.2  Garnett  187.2
76.6   Bird    140.3    86.1  Malone   196.3
58.9  Nowitzki 173.9    64.0  Nowitzki 192.0
71.8   Kobe    173.3

VORP    - 38    WS      VORP   - 40     WS
104.0  LeBron  184.3   104.4  Jordan   214.0
102.1  Jordan  207.8   104.0  LeBron   184.3
96.2   Malone  219.2   102.5  Malone   234.6
93.7   Garnett 190.4    94.1  Garnett  191.6
93.5   Barkley 177.2    93.5  Barkley  177.2
86.9   Duncan  201.2    65.9  Stockton 207.7
65.0  Nowitzki 195.6    88.4  Duncan   204.5
.                       65.0  Nowitzki 195.6

Jordan had to play to age 39 -- off and on -- to get the VORP LeBron has at 31.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2016 9:40 am**

Per 36 minutes, avg NBA productions are 15 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 3.25 Ast
To standardize for pace, we see that per 70 possessions (35.2 minutes at 95.5 poss/48), the averages are 14.66, 6.35, 3.18

These are above the median in each category, and only 13 players are above avg in all 3 departments.
Multiplying the avg's by 1.1, of course it's even more exclusive; by 1.2, there are just 2 such players this season.

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70p    Pts     Reb    Ast   2016
1.0   14.66   6.35   3.18   P Gasol, Horford, Jokic, Nene, D Lee ...
1.1   16.13   6.99   3.49  LeBron, Durant, George, M Gasol, Westbrook, Millsap
1.2   17.59   7.62   3.81   Carmelo
1.3   19.06   8.26   4.13   Griffin
1.4   20.52   8.89   4.45   
1.5   21.99   9.53   4.76

There don't seem to be any examples with >20 minutes on the season and very low mpg. David Lee is lowest at 16 mpg.
Most are forwards, a couple of centers, one unusual guard.

All-time, or since 1978, frequently making the lists:

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70p*   Pts   Reb   Ast   ever
1.0   14.7   6.4   3.2   14 Barkley, 13 Bird, Garnett, Webber; 12 Malone; 11 Adams
1.1   16.1   7.0   3.5   13 Barkley; 12 Bird, Garnett, Webber; 9 Malone; 8 Adams
1.2   17.6   7.6   3.8   11 Bird; 10 Garnett; 8 Malone; 7 Barkley, Webber; 4 Adams
1.3   19.1   8.3   4.1   7 Bird, Garnett; 5 Malone; 3 Barkley, Webber; 2 Griffin
1.4   20.5   8.9   4.4   4 Garnett; 2 Barkley; 1 Hill, Malone, Webber
1.5   22.0   9.5   4.8   Garnett 2004

At 1.3, there are 7 who have done it one time.
http://bkref.com/tiny/D36mq
At 1.45 multiplier, KG still alone, but also makes it for 2005

Above the 1.3 marks for their career: Garnett, Bird, Webber, Griffin

Posted: **Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:05 am**

In the first 16 NBA seasons of this century, there are 20 instances of players who did not make the All-Star team, despite playing 2400+ minutes, with PER>19, WS/48>.170, and BPM>3.

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yr    no-star     tm   PER   WS/48   BPM
2001   Marion    Phx   21.0   .196   4.2
2001   Francis   Hou   21.6   .184   6.6
2001   Nowitzki  Dal   22.8   .224   4.7
2002   Stockton  Uta   21.9   .200   3.3
2002   B Barry   Sea   19.3   .191   5.8

2003   Malone    Uta   21.7   .182   4.5
2004   Brand     LAC   23.2   .174   5.1
2005   Marbury   NYK   21.9   .171   3.4
2005   Billups   Det   19.0   .202   3.8
2006   Paul      NOH   22.1   .178   6.1

2007   Brand     LAC   23.1   .180   5.1
2010   Boozer    Uta   21.3   .178   3.5
2011   Odom      LAL   19.4   .184   3.7
2013   D West    Ind   20.1   .179   3.3
2013  D Williams Brk   20.3   .184   3.5

2013   Curry     GSW   21.3   .180   5.4
2013   M Gasol   Mem   19.5   .197   6.1
2014   Dragic    Phx   21.4   .186   3.9
2014   Lowry     Tor   20.1   .197   5.9
2015   Jordan    LAC   21.0   .217   4.1

2016   Love      Cle   19.3   .174   3.2
2016   Gasol     Chi   22.0   .172   3.9

These last 2 don't have 2400 minutes, but they're on pace to.

Posted: **Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:30 pm**

Players who have reduced their career eFG% at least 3% by shooting 3's.

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. bad 3's        2fg%   3fg%   eFG%    diff
Tony Wroten      .477   .231   .443   -.034
Charles Barkley  .581   .266   .558   -.023
James Johnson    .519   .269   .500   -.019
Tom Garrick      .490   .083   .471   -.019
Maurice Harkless .515   .301   .497   -.018
Manute Bol       .435   .210   .420   -.015
Allen Leavell    .476   .234   .462   -.014
Marquis Daniels  .478   .235   .464   -.014
Jared Sullinger  .477   .273   .463   -.014

http://bkref.com/tiny/tvLFG
That's everyone with at least 1000 career points. Barkley had 23,757; Leavell next with 6684.

Posted: **Sat Feb 20, 2016 11:16 am**

Does it seem as though players who have been 'snubbed' for the All Star game often come out with a big game afterward?
These players rank above at least 2 AllStars in eWins at this point; and most of them had better than a normal game in the last 2 nights.

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snub ?            tm  Pts  Rb  As  St  Bk   TS%
Brook Lopez      Brk   33   9   5   1   4  .622
Kemba Walker     Cha   25   6   4   2   0  .625
Nikola Vucevic   Orl   21  12   3   1   2  .473
Damian Lillard   Por   51   0   7   6   0  .820
Rajon Rondo      Sac   24  10   9   5   0  .644

Danilo Gallinari Den   27   3   2   3   0  .807
Gordon Hayward   Uta   19   5   1   2   1  .567
Reggie Jackson   Det   16   3   5   0   1  .434
Kevin Love       Cle   15  15   2   0   1  .638
DeAndre Jordan   LAC    9  17   1   3   2  .654

Well rested and perhaps extra motivated?
Gallinari's a throw-in, as he'd have been a contender had he not missed some games.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:36 pm**

Since 1980, 99 players have accumulated at least 5.9 Win Shares and 2.9 VORP in playoffs.
http://bkref.com/tiny/nBKN9
From that top 99, leaders in some categories:

Code: Select all

Minutes        Off WinShares  Def WinShares    Win Shares     VORP
9152  Duncan   27.3  Jordan   17.0  Duncan    39.8  Jordan   23.7  LeBron
8641  Kobe     24.5  LeBron   14.1  Pippen    37.5  Duncan   22.8  Jordan
8105  Pippen   23.1  Magic    12.4  Jordan    36.9  LeBron   18.4  Duncan
8098  Shaq     21.0  Kobe     12.4  LeBron    32.6  Magic    17.8  Magic
7907  Malone   20.4  Duncan   11.7  Wallace   31.1  Shaq     16.1  Pippen

PER             Off Rating     Def Rating      WS/48          BPM
28.6  Jordan   122  Magic      92  Wallace    .255  Jordan   10.4  LeBron
27.4  LeBron   122  McHale     96  Robinson   .234  LeBron   10.1  Jordan
26.1  Shaq     122  Grant      99  Garnett    .208  Magic     7.8  Paul
25.7  Olajuwon 121  Maxwell    99  Duncan     .200  Paul      7.4  Magic
25.2  Paul     120  Hawkins   100  Ewing      .199  Robinson  7.3  Barkley
.                             100  Dwight 

Off Reb%        Def Reb%        Total Reb%      Off BPM       Def BPM
15.0  Rodman   30.9  Dwight    21.9  Dwight    8.3  Jordan   5.8  Wallace
14.0  Moses    26.9  Garnett   20.5  Rodman    7.3  LeBron   4.7  Olajuwon
13.2  D Davis  26.4  Wallace   19.0  Wallace   6.7  Curry    4.5  Robinson
12.9  Kemp     26.2  Rodman    18.9  Barkley   5.8  Paul     4.5  M Gasol
12.6  Dwight   25.8  Laimbeer  18.6  Moses     5.3  B Davis  4.4  Mutombo

Ast%            Stl%           TO%            Usage%         Blk%
47.8  Stockton  3.3  B Davis   8.0  Finley    35.6  Jordan   6.1  Mutombo
44.8  Paul      3.1  Paul      8.4  Russell   34.3  Iverson  5.5  Olajuwon
42.8  Rondo     2.9  Isiah     8.6  Majerle   32.5 Westbrook 5.5  Dwight
42.2  Magic     2.8  Stockton  8.7  Marion    32.1  LeBron   5.2  Robinson
40.0  Jackson   2.8  Cheeks    9.0  M Gasol   31.0  Kobe     4.5  Wallace
.                                                            4.5  Duncan

Chris Paul has been great in playoffs, appearing near the top in several big ones. But never past the 2nd round.
Wallace = Ben, Russell = Bryon, Maxwell = Cedric, Malone = Karl, Jackson = Mark, Grant = Horace, Robinson = The Admiral.

Posted: **Sun Feb 28, 2016 1:17 pm**

Draymond Green last night became the first player to register 14 Ast, 14 Reb, and less than (take your pick) 6 pts or 2 FG in a game.
http://bkref.com/tiny/tFezs
His 4 blocks is also tops in that 14-14 club, and his 6 steals ties for most.

This is since 1983-84. Just 31 times in 32+ years has anyone had a 14 Reb/Ast game. Green also did it on Jan 2, along with 29 points.
Kidd and Magic own more than half of these games, no one else more than 2.

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