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Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:53 pm
by Mike G
Season win projections based on current wins + pythagorean W% over remaining games:
Code: Select all
tm W tm W tm W
Uta 74 NYK 57 Por 31
GSW 73 Chi 54 Cha 26
Cle 70 Phx 53 Den 23
Tor 68 Dal 50 LAL 19
SAS 65 Sac 45 Ind 13
Okl 65 Atl 45 NOP 10
Min 64 Was 41 Mil 9
LAC 64 Bos 40 Brk 7
Det 61 Orl 32 Hou 5
Mia 58 Mem 32 Phl 3
These don't consider strength of opponent or remaining schedule; just point-diff in 2 to 4 games.
And our large-ish differences with these projections:
Code: Select all
rsm 15.8 km 16.3 Dan 16.6
Cal 16.0 KF 16.4 Crow 16.9
DF 16.0 AJ 16.5 yoop 16.9
DrP 16.2 bbs 16.5 tzu 17.0
itca 16.2 MG 16.5 BD 17.1
snd 16.3 taco 16.6 fpli 17.2
nr 16.3 DSM 16.6 EZ 18.7
Now we can all look forward to improving these errors.
The season is 3.7% completed.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:14 am
by BasketDork
Noticing Utah and Golden State's projections topping 72 wins (I think we're all well aware Utah will get nowhere close and Golden State seems to be a consensus pick to win 60+), It stirred up a simple, albeit interesting pondering of mine. Does anyone think ANY team this year has the capabilities, pieces and concrete history of avoiding the injury bug to make a run at that magic "72-10" mark set by Chicago, that turns 20 years old this season? I was an early teen back then, but I still recall how complete of a team they were, how well they dealt with distractions (ahhem..mainly The Worm's antics), all the breaks that seemingly went their way, and how laser-focused that group was night in and night out. Anyone see ANY team making a run at it this year or within the next 2-3 seasons? Just curious to hear some folk's responses..
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:24 am
by BasketDork
Seeing some projections with Golden State ending up with 67+ W's for this year sparked my curiosity. They are a pretty complete team, but still have some holes.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:18 am
by Mike G
I shudder to think what a 50 point win over Mem last night does to the GSW projections.
Last year, they were just about injury free. In playoffs, none of their top guys seemed to be slowed much by any ailment. I don't know what should be expected -- maybe one starter unavailable, on avg?
The minutes I and some others used are pretty generous -- both Livingston and Barbosa getting more than last year -- and my estimate for their season came in right around last season; unsurprisingly, since they've hardly changed. But every team came in a few wins high, when you average them. So I have to knock them down a few. It seemed quite possible there is no improving for Curry, Thompson, or perhaps any of them.
The franchise champs in 1975, in fact, had a bunch of guys having their best seasons in '75 and '76, and then never much else of note.
This team has 5 guys expected to go 2000+ minutes (again). None of these is very replaceable from the bench.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:51 pm
by BasketDork
I think Curry isn't even at his full potential yet, as evidenced by his ferocious start. I think D.Green's offense can still improve, although we may only see that on some nights or if one of their top guns get injured, his defense is great, if there's room for improvement, he's a lock for a couple DPOY's, between him and Kawhi Leonard. Klay Thompson, I don't know what you think, but I think he's peaked. I think he's still in his peak, but I think last year will probably be his best offensive season over the course of his career, even if only because Curry's usage rate can afford to go up a few ticks. Those extra possessions will have to come from somewhere, right? They have a pretty solid bench, too. I think the Clippers have a deeper bench this year though. I have them as a 60+ win team, hell, correct me if I'm wrong, we all do I believe? Thanks again for letting me participate in the win projections. I was kicking myself for not getting them up sooner after I missed last years altogether.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:43 pm
by Statman
Statman wrote:My very late entry - I got sidetracked with lineup optimization stuff & just didn't get around to just plain finishing the work. Obviously this ignores any games already played - I will be posting ALL projected player WARs (using Kevin's projected minutes) at my site later today, I'm just too tired to format anything right now.
I forgot to post the link to all the Player WAR projections (before start of season using Pelton's minute projections):
http://hoopsnerd.com/?p=885
Quick list of top:
Code: Select all
+------+-------------------+---------------+------------+-------+------+--------------------+------+-----+---------------------+-------+--------+
| WAR | | Less Data=low | | | | Pelton Projections | | | Projections 2015-16 | | |
+------+-------------------+---------------+------------+-------+------+--------------------+------+-----+---------------------+-------+--------+
| Rank | Player | Confidence | Bday | Age | Team | G | Min | MPG | HN/48 | WAR | WAR/48 |
| 1 | Kevin Durant | 56.85% | 9/29/1988 | 26.84 | okc | 73 | 2628 | 36 | 177 | 19.33 | 28.95 |
| 2 | Anthony Davis | 85.12% | 3/11/1993 | 22.39 | nop | 74 | 2664 | 36 | 187 | 18.57 | 27.44 |
| 3 | James Harden | 99.45% | 8/26/1989 | 25.93 | hou | 78 | 2808 | 36 | 164 | 18.27 | 25.61 |
| 4 | Russell Westbrook | 69.85% | 11/12/1988 | 26.72 | okc | 74 | 2516 | 34 | 175 | 17.45 | 27.29 |
| 5 | Stephen Curry | 92.89% | 3/14/1988 | 27.38 | gsw | 78 | 2574 | 33 | 170 | 17.30 | 26.45 |
| 6 | LeBron James | 87.05% | 12/30/1984 | 30.58 | cle | 77 | 2695 | 35 | 157 | 16.45 | 24.03 |
| 7 | Chris Paul | 90.60% | 5/6/1985 | 30.24 | lac | 76 | 2660 | 35 | 157 | 15.74 | 23.29 |
| 8 | DeMarcus Cousins | 73.04% | 8/13/1990 | 24.97 | sac | 76 | 2584 | 34 | 168 | 14.55 | 22.16 |
| 9 | Paul George | 38.08% | 5/2/1990 | 25.25 | ind | 68 | 2448 | 36 | 146 | 13.23 | 21.27 |
| 10 | Blake Griffin | 88.60% | 3/16/1989 | 26.38 | lac | 77 | 2695 | 35 | 140 | 12.89 | 18.82 |
| 11 | Hassan Whiteside | 29.59% | 6/13/1989 | 26.13 | mia | 78 | 2184 | 28 | 169 | 12.66 | 22.81 |
| 12 | Damian Lillard | 100.00% | 7/15/1990 | 25.05 | por | 78 | 2808 | 36 | 134 | 11.91 | 16.69 |
| 13 | Kawhi Leonard | 68.39% | 6/29/1991 | 24.09 | sas | 72 | 2304 | 32 | 141 | 11.05 | 18.88 |
| 14 | Kyle Lowry | 88.23% | 3/25/1986 | 29.35 | tor | 77 | 2618 | 34 | 133 | 10.78 | 16.21 |
| 15 | Kevin Love | 86.72% | 9/7/1988 | 26.90 | cle | 69 | 2277 | 33 | 138 | 10.64 | 18.40 |
| 16 | LaMarcus Aldridge | 85.78% | 7/19/1985 | 30.03 | sas | 76 | 2432 | 32 | 134 | 10.57 | 17.11 |
| 17 | DeAndre Jordan | 98.38% | 7/21/1988 | 27.03 | lac | 78 | 2730 | 35 | 125 | 10.42 | 15.02 |
| 18 | Andre Drummond | 91.51% | 8/10/1993 | 21.97 | det | 77 | 2464 | 32 | 148 | 10.41 | 16.63 |
| 19 | Nikola Vucevic | 80.93% | 10/24/1990 | 24.77 | orl | 76 | 2584 | 34 | 140 | 10.20 | 15.54 |
| 20 | Rudy Gobert | 59.68% | 6/26/1992 | 23.10 | uta | 78 | 2496 | 32 | 138 | 10.15 | 16.00 |
+------+-------------------+---------------+------------+-------+------+--------------------+------+-----+---------------------+-------+--------+
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:19 pm
by Mike G
Happy to report everyone is looking better than anyone was, last time.
Code: Select all
DrP 11.6 AJ 12.4 BD 13.0
bbs 12.0 km 12.4 yoop 13.1
DSM 12.0 tzu 12.4 fpli 13.1
Cal 12.0 Dan 12.6 nr 13.1
snd 12.1 rsm 12.7 taco 13.2
KF 12.2 Crow 12.8 itca 13.3
DF 12.2 MG 12.8 EZ 13.9
If last year's PythWins is an entry, its avg error is 13.9 -- relative to that, nobody is doing great.
Dr Pos in the lead at 5.6% of the season. He looks worst on Mia, NYK, Phl, and Orl (tie); best on Hou, Mil, Tor, Uta, and Por (t)
Again not accounting for SOS past or future, projected wins:
Code: Select all
West W East W
GSW 75 Cle 65
Uta 60 Tor 65
SAS 58 Atl 51
LAC 56 Mia 50
Phx 54 Det 48
Min 53 Cha 45
Okl 52 Was 42
Por 45 NYK 41
Dal 40 Bos 38
Den 34 Chi 38
Sac 26 Orl 36
Mem 19 Ind 27
LAL 18 Mil 21
Hou 17 Phl 10
NOP 11 Brk 9
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2015 12:48 am
by Statman
Mike G wrote:Happy to report everyone is looking better than anyone was, last time.
Code: Select all
DrP 11.6 AJ 12.4 BD 13.0
bbs 12.0 km 12.4 yoop 13.1
DSM 12.0 tzu 12.4 fpli 13.1
Cal 12.0 Dan 12.6 nr 13.1
snd 12.1 rsm 12.7 taco 13.2
KF 12.2 Crow 12.8 itca 13.3
DF 12.2 MG 12.8 EZ 13.9
Is that Dan me?
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2015 1:52 am
by Mike G
Yep. Middly Diddly Dan.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:16 am
by Dr Positivity
APBR board looking pretty smart having Portland mean prediction at 35 Ws compared to 26.5-27 for Vegas
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2015 2:01 pm
by Statman
Dr Positivity wrote:APBR board looking pretty smart having Portland mean prediction at 35 Ws compared to 26.5-27 for Vegas
Wow, I had 43 wins for them. That would have been one of my very first over bets if I was a gambling man.
Had to look at it - my projections like Davis', Plumlee's, & Leonard's per minute relative production quite a bit - and Pelton had them playing a combined 29% of total team minutes.
Of course, Lillard is a stud - projected 12th in the NBA in WAR before season start.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:46 am
by bondom343
I didn't do an actual prediction, but the lines are made for gambling, not actual predictions. I figured PDX would be an over just by Lillard alone, now looking at McCollum's play (thought he'd improve but he's really impressive so far) they look to be a mid 30s win team easily.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:29 pm
by Mike G
Quick update:
Code: Select all
Dan 11.3 DrP 11.7 fpli 12.6
Cal 11.4 snd 11.8 nr 12.6
km 11.4 tzu 11.8 itca 12.6
KF 11.4 AJ 11.8 yoop 12.7
bbs 11.5 rsm 12.1 taco 13.0
DF 11.6 MG 12.3 BD 13.5
DSM 11.7 Crow 12.4 EZ 13.9
Statman Dan had the biggest variations from the mean, and several of these outliers are looking good. He has the best looking guesses on Brk, Dal, NOP, and Was -- all of which he was lowest on; Cha and Por, where he was highest.
Code: Select all
west w west w east w east w
GSW 76 Dal 33 Cle 66 Orl 40
Uta 62 Sac 26 Tor 61 NYK 38
SAS 59 Den 25 Atl 54 Was 33
LAC 57 Hou 25 Cha 52 Ind 32
Por 54 LAL 25 Det 52 Mil 29
Phx 49 Mem 17 Mia 51 Phl 12
Okl 48 NOP 14 Bos 49 Brk 11
Min 42 Chi 42
If and when b-r.com gets its Playoff Probabilities Forecast running, I'd be inclined to use those. Above, it's just MOV regardless of SOS.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:59 pm
by kmedved
Using Justin Kubatko's method, and Neil's dummy games value from the comments here,
http://statitudes.com/blog/2013/11/12/h ... using-srs/, using SRS to project wins for the rest of the schedule, generates this:
These results are obviously very "flat" right now, due to the adding of 7 dummy games to regress the current SRS to the mean.
Re: 2015-16 Team win projections
Posted: Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:41 pm
by Crow
I should have left Vegas out of my blend. Low weight; but a mistake, it appears. Almost pulled it. Blended fewer components than in past but left Vegas in. Maybe should have added others. Just did a real quick, small blend and tweak. Maybe too much on the small spur of the moment tweaks.
But it is very early.