APBRmetrics

Wonder what Jerome gets paid next season. Warriors may hope it is the minimum with them. I dunno... Too soon to know.

Teams on average are around 200 lineups used. Thunder at 324 before tonight. 13.5 new lineups per game. Keep that up, they'd exceed 1100. 900 is more likely but it is still crazy and something to watch.

18 of 21 lineups were brand new tonight in the absence of Dort.

Thunder are 20th on payroll, tied for 21st - 23rd on record and 29th on attendance.

Which moves up fastest & slowest in next 2-3 years?

11th most committed on payroll 2 years from now but different ways to complete it. Could stay around bottom ten thru then. A rise expected after that but too far away to say about payroll, wins or attendance 3-4 years from now.

(New arena? Unclear when the push really starts. Climate may be better in a few years, though there probably isn't much doubt.)

Coach D's starters sucked as usual. But only -20 pts / 100p, so the -32 for season will improve slightly. Yay...

Only 8 brand new lineups tonight but that is still more than half the number used.


Should hit 400 lineups early week after next.

Only 3 lineups used for equivalent of 1 minute per game. None over 3 minutes.

Thunder, 8th from bottom, with a 2% chance of a top 4 draft pick as dealt. That is pretty awful (maybe about the worst) place to be relative to higher or lower w-l position. Could change. Probably for worse. For lineup management to get even worse it probably will have to even more deliberate or insane.

Around 8th pick, isn't bad but it doesn't look that special by conventional ranking. Some guys might be good at the 8th pick. Trade up or trade down possibilities will need to be explored. Almost certainly would have to trade up for Whitmore or Brandon Miller. Could probably trade down for Filipowski, Edey, Tshiebwe or Murray. A lot depends of the amount of poor GM picks up high. Could be normal or higher than normal.

Average team has about 4 players over +1 on BPM. Thunder have two. SGA and I Joe are very high but lack other good partners.

Thunder just a bit short of average on number of players at or better than -1 on BPM.

DRIP not projecting Joe above +1 yet. Neither is DARKO. But probably reaches that level soon.

Starters only -18pts / 48 minutes, so... they played a lot.

10 brand new lineups tonight, cuz the first 351 apparently aren't enough.

Giddey - SGA pair, almost -12pts / 48 min tonight, slightly more than it for season. Worse than last season.

SGA - Dort without Giddey almost +16 / 100p in 248 minutes.

Giddey - Jalen Williams is slightly worse (at -12.4 pts / 100p) than Giddey - SGA, so that doesn't seem like a promising 2nd unit backcourt in general... though add JRE and that trio is only mildly negative... and as such is the 4th best of the 20 most used trios. Add Dort and that quad is +6 and 3rd best. But Coach D only uses that quad for about 1/7th if Giddey's time.

8 of Giddey's most common pair partners are -8 or worse. Two mild positives are K Williams and Muscala.



The by far best bigger minute trios involve SGA-Dort with Wiggins or Mann but each is pretty lightly used. The quad is +40pts / 100p in a ridiculously light 38 minutes.


8 most used 5 man lineups all negative.

Heat take 56 attempts against Thunder tonight setting franchise record for most opponent 3pt attempts against Thunder. Previous record was tied 2 days ago.

Offensive strategy driven by Thunder defense?

Pokusevski has the worst raw +/- per 48 minutes of any player in league with 500 plus minutes. Jalen Williams is 6th worst, Giddey 7th worst. They are very slightly higher if the minutes threshold is reduced to 300 minutes.

There are only 3 Thunder players with bad on and on / off +/-: Giddey, Jalen Williams and Pokusevski. 2 or all 3 have started 20 games together.

The trio is -23pts / 100p on average. -12 / 100p last night.

Will hit 400 lineups in next game as expected. So the first 30 games averaged over 13 brand new lineups per game. That rate has slowed but is still high.

Season to date, 8 of 9 most used lineups negative and the most used still at -31pts / 100p. 19 of 20 most used trios non-positive (just 1 neutral). 16 0f 17 most used pairs negative. Half -10pts / 100p or worse.

If not for some dink successes (chance or lineups that should be played more), the record should be worse. Massive cuts in bad bigger minute lineups would probably have massive positive impact.

If wanted to win, a reading of the numbers suggests, as it did earlier, that SGA should play way less with Giddey, J Williams and Pokusevski and way more with Mann, Wiggins and K Williams. Plenty of other major adjustments suggested as well.