2023 Draft notes

[Crow]

Kalkbrenner with a huge game.

Nick Smith with his lowest rated real game,

G Dick with his best.

K. George with another weak one.

[Crow]

Wembanyama for season: near average efg% and ts%. Strong FT% but still below 30% from 3. Good not great rebounding. Under 0.9 A/TO. Good defense in a modest quality league.



Brandon Miller way better efg%, ts%, 3pt fg%. Better FT%, more Moreyball, better A/TO. Modestly lesser rebounding. Good defense.

Will be interesting to compare next season stats.

[Crow]

N Smith and A Black both with 2nd worst games of season yesterday.

G Dick with a clunker game. Slightly more clunker games than really strong for season.

Hood-Schifino, 4 games over GS18, 18 below GS8 (including 4 of last 5).

Weak game from Lively. Some "good" games in mid to late season but no great ones.

[Crow]

A draft site:

"A core of Wembanyama, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren would contend for titles for the next decade with the right pieces in place along with good health."

Me: A core of Wembanyama, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren would be unlikely to make play-in tournament next season and probably would take years to make playoffs and win a first round series. Long-term is another thing but I have doubts that "core" or at least half it would ever get to conference finals.

[Crow]

Kalkbrenner with a good tourney. Few, if any other draft writers care though.

For most it is all about the perimeters with "flashes" and "potential". Often regardless of quality of current average performance indicators. Over-emphasis of archetype and video highlights.




Hear some about defense in the form of blocks, steals and rim protection. Rebounding including defensive rebounding usually gets brief reference if any in draft writeups. Not valued by many as much as it should be. Not cool or exciting enough I guess.

It is role based production... like most things. Someone has to do it. The more 1-2 guys can do, the less harm the guys who don't see it as their role or can't do it much will cause.

[Crow]

Wembanyama's 3pt fg% moves above 30% for first time in quite awhile. 31%.



1 player in Tankathon first round in the final 4. Final 4 does not appear to be about the supposed leading draft prospects.

In a final 4 you probably shouldn't expect that many leading prospects but would have thought there would be at least a couple.

The one (J Hawkins) is a sophomore not freshman and not that special.

[Crow]

In 2022 NBA draft class, the 20 best on BPM so far (regardless of minute level) includes 18 6'6 and taller. 4 of the best 5 were 6'10 or taller.

Best under 6'6 was J Hardy.

Perimeters who aren't tall have not done that much so far.

Similar for 2021 class with regards to BPM dominance by those 6'6 and taller.

[Crow]

Vecenie on Henderson:

"...needs to work on his efficiency..."

i.e. needs to get better at the most important / biggest part of his game.

Well below and below league averages for efg% and ts% against pretty or very bad G league defenses in his 2nd year there.

[Crow]

Draft prospect basic analytic summary:

BPM SOS RAPM DRAPM
Efg% TS%
Steals + 1/2 blocks / 36
A/TO
3pr rate FT rate
Reb / 36
GS18 plus games Less than G8
20 plus pt gm
2 plus level stat strengths
2 plus level stat weaknesses
Conf / Overall ratio
March
Relative Age



Example

Trayce Jackson Davis

BPM +16 SOS +9 RAPM +9 DRAPM+2
Efg% 58 TS% 61
Steals + 1/2 blocks / 36 2.4
A/TO 1.6
3pr rate 0% FT rate 47%
Reb / 36 11
GS18 plus games 23 Less than GS8 0
20 plus pt gm 18
2 plus level stat strengths 12
2 plus level stat weaknesses 1
Conf / Overall .9
March Strong
Relative Age Old

[Crow]

Cam Whitmore

BPM +6 SOS +9 RAPM 3 DRAPM 1
Efg% 55 TS% 57
Steals + 1/2 blocks / 36 2.2
A/TO 0.45
3pr rate 42 FT rate 25
Reb / 36 7
GS18 plus games 3 Less than G8 12
20 plus pt gm 3
2 plus level stat strengths 2
2 plus level stat weaknesses 10
Conf / Overall ratio .95
March Typical to slightly above
Relative Age Young


Jackson-Davis better on 15 of 19 elements.

[Crow]

2023 NBA Draft
Current big board

Wembanyama
Br Miller
T Jackson-Davis
Kalkbrenner
Edey
Jaquez

Sasser
Hendricks
Tshiebwe
J Pickett
Podziemski
Sensabaugh
J Clark
Co Jones
Murray

Sanogo
Timme
Dick
Walker
Ausar Thompson
Amen Thompson
S Henderson
Black
Lively
Ighodaro
Coulibaly
Tubelis
D Holmes
Flagler
Shannon
J Wilson
K Davis
Wong
J Hawkins
Whitmore
Bufkin
Slawson

C Wallace
K Brown
W Taylor
N Dante
Hodge
M Carr
Makhi Mitchell
Kolek
Nunge
J Miller
Br Smith
L Miller
Beekman
K Johnson
Omier
Castleton
J Stephens
Ballo
A Watson
J Roberts
A Jackson
Grant
K George
L Robbins
W Richard
C Spencer
J J-James
Whitehead
Nnaji
De Williams
Vanover
Shead
B Carlson
Mal Smith
W Green
J Howard
T Perry
Nowell
Jul Phillips
N Smith


T Alexander
Shedrick
J Broome
T Funk
J Davis
Mutts
Bediako
Hart
Camara
E Dixon
Degenhart
D Carter
K Jones
Khalifa
D Peterson
Clowney
A Bona
R Griffen
Basile
McCullar
Abogidi
Lakhin
Strawther
Dil Jones
Jes Edwards
Ducas
KJ Williams
O Moore
Miles

(Rough tiers have more meaning than estimated exact rank. Lowest 2 tiers not reviewed much recently.)

[Crow]

Sidy Cissoko, not in my top 100.

[Crow]

Trayce Jackson Davis-

#1 in college basketball (among qualifiers) on BPM estimate.

11th on RAPM.

33rd to Givony. 17 spots behind Rupert.

40th to Vecenie. 14 spots behind Rupert.

3rd on my board. At least 100 spots ahead of Rupert.

I think I'll be closer to NBA performance level, especially next season. We'll see.

[Crow]

Thread on draftee age / experience and NBA performance.

https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 40065?s=20

[Crow]

2023 NBA Draft
Working on revised big board,
ultimately trying to cutdown to 58.

Wembanyama
T Jackson-Davis
Br Miller
Jaquez

Sasser
Edey
Co Jones
J Clark
Hendricks
Walker
J Pickett
Murray
Podziemski
Dick
Timme
Ausar Thompson
Amen Thompson

S Henderson
Sensabaugh
Tshiebwe
Ighodaro
Coulibaly
Tubelis
Bufkin
K Davis
Hodge
Black

Lively
Sanogo
D Holmes
Shannon
Wong
J Hawkins
Whitmore
Slawson
C Wallace
K Brown
W Taylor
L Miller

Flagler
N Dante
M Carr
Makhi Mitchell
Castleton
J Wilson
Kolek
Nunge
J Miller
Br Smith
Beekman
K Johnson
J Stephens
Ballo
A Watson
J Roberts
A Jackson
De Williams
Camara
M Nowell
L Robbins
W Richard
K George
Vanover


Mal Smith
C Spencer
Whitehead
B Carlson
J Miller
J Bridges
Jul Phillips
T Alexander
SJ Rice
J Howard
Nnaji
Clowney
Lakhin
Strawther
Ducas
O Moore
Lundy
Council
N Smith