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Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2025 2:54 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 4:50 am
Wizards have won 6% of games so far. BRef is projecting they win 24% of the remainder.
How strong a candidate for worst record in league history?
Of their top 11 players (as of a few days ago), 2 show major improvements: George and Sarr.
Another 3 are pretty stable, and 6 have experienced precipitous declines.
This 3:1 bad:good ratio might be expected to even out somewhat over time.
Their current SRS of -14.7 suggests a win% of about .100, so they should have won 1.6 games out of 16.
And this projects to 8 expected wins on the season, if nobody else steps up.
Thru 13 games, their net player improvement from last year summed to -.38, or about .03 per game.
Add that to their remaining 66 games, and expect another 2 wins. That's if everyone returns to last year's proficiencies.
If it's only the decliners recovering (while current improvers continue), expect 6 more wins, for a total of 14.
They've had the 2nd toughest schedule in the East, and their remaining SOS is about 1 ppg easier. Another couple of W there?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2025 1:16 am
by Crow
Wizards up 22 at half tonight.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2025 1:14 pm
by Mike G
EExp take a dive -- error up .22 while avgA sheds .19 and Darko .32
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.34 8.41 .49 eWin 7.16 9.08 .41
vegas 6.60 8.16 .55 dtka 7.28 9.02 .42
bpmW 6.75 8.43 .49 WShr 7.45 9.42 .38
avgA 6.76 8.81 .44 Crow 7.49 9.85 .37
knar 6.82 8.50 .47 KPel 7.67 9.85 .37
Mgoo 6.92 8.87 .44 medi 7.72 9.73 .40
perW 7.00 9.83 .33 25pr 8.22 9.87 .33
EExp 7.05 8.53 .47 DQin 8.80 11.24 .28
Walr 7.10 8.55 .47
Just 3 games last night. Blowouts all : Was>>Atl and Orl>>Phl helped most or all of us; LAL>>LAC not so much.
UPDATE Nov. 29 -- new leader, and on all fronts
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.66 8.24 .56 eWin 7.51 9.24 .42
DRKO 6.69 8.67 .49 dtka 7.60 9.23 .42
bpmW 7.07 8.64 .49 WShr 7.77 9.58 .39
knar 7.16 8.74 .48 KPel 7.79 9.92 .38
avgA 7.17 8.98 .45 Crow 7.82 10.08 .36
Mgoo 7.23 9.04 .45 medi 7.88 9.86 .41
EExp 7.27 8.71 .48 25pr 8.62 10.07 .33
Walr 7.32 8.69 .48 DQin 8.86 11.27 .29
perW 7.40 9.94 .35
UPDATE to end the month
Code: Select all
W Atl W Bos W Brk W Cha W Chi W Cle W Det W Ind
46 DQ 50 DQ 33 WS 36 Wa 41 Cr 58 md 53 b-r 47 DQ
46 dt 48 WS 31 kn 34 kn 38 WS 57 DO 46 Cr 46 KP
45 md 46 DO 28 bW 32 eW 38 KP 56 dt 46 md 43 WS
45 b-r 46 b-r 28 DO 31 DO 37 b-r 55 DQ 45 eW 41 Cr
44 kn 46 Cr 27 pW 31 pW 36 kn 54 WS 44 DO 41 pW
44 KP 46 KP 27 eW 31 bW 36 md 53 Wa 44 WS 40 md
44 pW 43 kn 26 DQ 31 Cr 35 DQ 53 bW 43 bW 39 Wa
44 bW 42 dt 26 Wa 31 b-r 35 bW 52 Cr 43 Wa 36 bW
43 eW 42 bW 25 dt 30 dt 35 DO 51 kn 43 KP 36 DO
43 DO 42 md 24 b-r 29 KP 34 dt 50 KP 42 pW 36 dt
42 WS 41 Wa 22 Cr 27 WS 34 pW 50 pW 41 kn 36 eW
42 Wa 39 pW 19 md 26 md 33 Wa 50 eW 41 dt 33 kn
39 Cr 37 eW 18 KP 23 DQ 32 eW 48 b-r 35 DQ 24 b-r
^ Atl ^ Bos ^ Brk ^ Cha ^ Chi ^ Cle ^ Det ^ Ind
W Mia W Mil W NYK W Orl W Phl W Tor W Was
53 b-r 45 KP 52 Wa 55 eW 47 md 50 b-r 25 DO
41 eW 44 Cr 52 b-r 52 Cr 43 pW 41 eW 24 Wa
41 WS 43 Wa 51 DO 52 b-r 42 b-r 41 KP 23 dt
40 KP 42 eW 50 pW 51 kn 38 KP 40 DO 23 kn
40 pW 42 dt 49 md 50 DO 38 eW 39 kn 22 eW
40 bW 42 DO 49 dt 50 md 38 Cr 38 pW 21 WS
38 Wa 42 md 48 kn 50 KP 37 dt 38 bW 21 pW
38 kn 40 DQ 48 Cr 49 Wa 37 DO 38 Wa 21 Cr
36 DQ 39 kn 48 WS 48 pW 35 bW 37 dt 19 bW
36 dt 38 pW 47 KP 48 bW 34 Wa 35 Cr 18 md
34 DO 38 bW 47 eW 46 dt 34 kn 32 WS 17 DQ
33 md 38 WS 47 bW 43 WS 33 DQ 32 md 17 b-r
29 Cr 36 b-r 43 DQ 42 DQ 32 WS 28 DQ 14 KP
^ Mia ^ Mil ^ NYK ^ Orl ^ Phl ^ Tor ^ Was
W Dal W Den W GSW W Hou W LAC W LAL W Mem W Min
54 pW 55 b-r 56 KP 59 b-r 53 dt 50 b-r 48 DQ 52 md
51 eW 55 pW 51 DQ 58 DQ 51 Cr 47 pW 47 WS 49 WS
50 DQ 54 md 51 Cr 53 Cr 51 kn 47 dt 46 md 48 DQ
46 Cr 52 KP 50 md 52 DO 50 DQ 47 eW 45 KP 48 Cr
45 bW 52 DO 50 dt 51 md 50 eW 46 bW 43 Wa 48 dt
44 DO 52 DQ 49 bW 50 kn 50 KP 46 KP 43 dt 47 bW
44 KP 52 Cr 48 kn 50 bW 50 DO 44 WS 43 bW 47 kn
44 WS 51 bW 47 WS 50 Wa 49 pW 44 Wa 42 eW 46 eW
43 kn 50 WS 47 Wa 49 dt 49 bW 43 md 41 pW 46 Wa
43 md 50 Wa 46 eW 47 WS 47 WS 42 Cr 41 kn 46 b-r
42 dt 48 dt 44 DO 47 KP 46 md 41 DQ 39 Cr 45 DO
39 Wa 47 eW 43 b-r 46 eW 46 Wa 41 kn 38 DO 44 KP
27 b-r 45 kn 42 pW 46 pW 30 b-r 39 DO 36 b-r 41 pW
^ Dal ^ Den ^ GSW ^ Hou ^ LAC ^ LAL ^ Mem ^ Min
W NOP W OKC W Phx W Por W Sac W SAS W Uta
36 kn 69 DQ 45 b-r 43 md 44 KP 52 b-r 29 b-r
35 pW 67 Wa 39 DQ 40 b-r 42 pW 50 pW 28 Wa
34 Wa 65 bW 37 WS 39 DQ 40 eW 45 eW 28 DO
34 Cr 65 WS 37 kn 38 WS 40 WS 45 DO 26 kn
33 bW 64 Cr 36 dt 38 bW 39 bW 43 kn 26 dt
33 DQ 64 md 35 KP 37 Wa 38 kn 42 Cr 25 eW
33 dt 64 b-r 35 bW 36 DO 37 dt 42 Wa 25 WS
33 KP 63 kn 33 eW 36 kn 36 Cr 42 bW 24 bW
33 md 61 dt 33 DO 36 Cr 36 Wa 40 KP 24 md
32 eW 60 eW 32 pW 36 dt 35 DQ 40 DQ 23 pW
32 DO 60 DO 32 Cr 36 KP 35 DO 40 dt 21 DQ
29 WS 59 KP 32 Wa 32 eW 34 md 40 md 20 KP
22 b-r 58 pW 27 md 30 pW 26 b-r 38 WS 19 Cr
^ NOP ^ OKC ^ Phx ^ Por ^ Sac ^ SAS ^ Uta
Last time we saw this chart, just 7 teams were inside the upper and lower bounds of our guesses.
Now there are 13 in contention, and at least one more (Den) on the edge.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Nov 30, 2025 5:14 pm
by Crow
I went very low on Heat based on terrible last playoffs and pre-season, some key player trends and trade speculation.
I will be off substantially but the final amount might not as bad as currently projected.
Spo was motivated enough to blow up the offense. I did not see that coming. Does that keep working as well? Time will tell. Herro off to a strong return but long-term questions will remain for me until there is a bigger sample.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2025 3:48 pm
by Mike G
Vegas now leads at any exponent <4.8
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.42 7.94 .59 eWin 7.40 9.14 .44
DRKO 6.66 8.55 .51 dtka 7.40 9.08 .45
bpmW 6.85 8.47 .52 perW 7.42 9.85 .37
knar 6.98 8.68 .50 Crow 7.56 9.82 .40
avgA 7.03 8.79 .48 WShr 7.72 9.37 .42
Mgoo 7.05 8.89 .47 medi 7.73 9.54 .44
Walr 7.14 8.41 .53 KPel 7.86 9.78 .40
EExp 7.21 8.53 .51 25pr 8.60 9.88 .36
. DQin 8.71 11.04 .32
Vegas, or EBET, currently has the worst (lowest) guess on Chi and Uta, but with the Bulls fading fast.
Meanwhile best guess (or tied) on NY, Det, LAL (all highest); also Phl and Orl.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2025 4:31 pm
by Crow
BPM among the leaders, by this target so far.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2025 5:00 pm
by Crow
95% win Thunder expected to regress to about 70% for remaining schedule by BRef.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2025 8:24 pm
by Mike G
OKC remaining schedule expects to be tougher than to-date by 4.34 points per opponent.
If they aren't especially motivated to win every game down the stretch, .700 might be pretty close. Or if injury should strike.
vegas is leading by this much:
Code: Select all
top: 6.39 8.10 .56
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas .00 .00 .00 dtka .96 .96 .13
DRKO .24 .40 .07 eWin .98 .95 .13
bpmW .42 .36 .06 perW 1.11 1.72 .22
knar .55 .46 .08 WShr 1.18 1.16 .15
avgA .59 .69 .10 Crow 1.21 1.82 .19
Mgoo .63 .78 .11 medi 1.37 1.52 .14
Walr .73 .36 .07 KPel 1.49 1.80 .19
EExp .73 .48 .08 25pr 2.06 1.71 .21
. DQin 2.25 2.93 .26
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2025 10:49 pm
by Crow
On Nov. 9, BRef projected Thunder to win 62% of remaining games. Now 70%. Will likely actually be 80+%. Maybe that projection gets there in a month or two.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2025 1:52 pm
by Mike G
Walrus surges and along with DARKO, bpmW, and DQuinn, having their lowest errors so far.*
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.47 8.00 .57 eWin 7.31 8.88 .45
DRKO 6.52 8.28 .52 perW 7.39 9.64 .37
bpmW 6.71 8.29 .52 dtka 7.45 8.92 .44
Walr 6.97 8.34 .51 WShr 7.48 9.15 .42
avgA 6.97 8.62 .48 Crow 7.75 9.71 .39
Mgoo 7.01 8.71 .47 medi 7.79 9.53 .43
knar 7.04 8.37 .51 KPel 8.02 9.82 .38
EExp 7.21 8.49 .49 25pr 8.36 9.71 .36
. DQin 8.49 10.79 .33
* - "so far" = since mid Nov. at least
UPDATE Dec. 5 -- avg errors up .17. Largest to date for EExp, PER, dtka, and KPel
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.57 8.10 .57 eWin 7.54 9.01 .45
DRKO 6.75 8.40 .52 perW 7.56 9.74 .37
bpmW 6.96 8.40 .52 dtka 7.62 9.02 .45
Mgoo 7.17 8.83 .47 WShr 7.71 9.24 .42
Walr 7.20 8.47 .51 Crow 7.89 9.80 .39
avgA 7.21 8.71 .48 medi 7.90 9.55 .44
knar 7.29 8.52 .50 KPel 8.08 9.87 .38
EExp 7.34 8.59 .50 25pr 8.48 9.75 .37
. DQin 8.60 10.82 .33
The West>East imbalance is recently kicking in; just two days ago, the West had caught the East in the b-r.com projections; now they are up by 42-40 on avg.
(Last night, Phl over a depleted GSW by 1. Versus 7 wins by West/East, just one at home, in 2 days.)
All entries favored the West by at least this much -- least being DARKO at 42-40 -- and on up to DQuinn at nearly 45-37.
Top-bottom distance is smallest since season low on Nov. 26