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Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 4:20 pm
by EvanZ
Yes, Prediction Tracker (a guy named Todd) for some reason uses the opposite convention to everyone else. It kind of annoys me, but he's doing a good service, so tough to complain.
This is what I'm using for lines:
http://www.wagertracker.com/Odds.aspx?d ... &sport=NBA
Just replace the date with whatever date you want.
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 4:25 pm
by Crow
Alright, thanks for the clarification and tip. I'll try to sort it out. Sorry for my confusion.
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 4:37 pm
by EvanZ
Oh, it's not your fault. I just happened to make the mistake first, so I can correct the next person.
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 4:58 pm
by Crow
So I guess for the 3 "best" picks by this method went 1-2 this time with two close calls.
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sat Jan 14, 2012 11:53 pm
by Jeff Fogle
Will be interesting to see how the markets and various ratings systems deal with Philadelphia. They're showing a clear "well-suited to blow out patsies" tendency that the markets are reacting to vs. bad teams. But, the schedule has been so soft thus far for the Sixers that they have few games vs. winning teams.
lost 107-103 vs. Portland (currently 7-4)
lost 102-99 at Utah (currently 6-4)
won 96-86 vs. Indiana (currently 8-3)
lost 85-79 at NY (currently 6-5)
Not included yet: Miami, Chicago, Orlando, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, LAL, LAC, Denver, Dallas.
Some good teams are coming up finally:
Wednesday: vs. Denver
Friday: vs. Atlanta
Saturday: at Miami
Then another batch down the road:
1/30: at Orlando
2/1: vs. Chicago
2/3: vs. Miami
2/4: at Atlanta
2/6: vs. LAL
2/8: vs. SA
2/10: vs. LAC
Interested to see pricing strategies this week, particularly if Wade is back for Miami by Saturday. There's a lot to like about the Sixers, but they're just 1-3 in the "Super League" of teams with winning records, and they've missed most of the serious championship threats...
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:35 am
by J.E.
Those are pretty good, thanks
They even give you additional info on return date, other than "day to day" etc., when you hover over the info button
Maybe I'll write a parser for the info on the "!" button. RMSE for the RAPM derived rating can definitely be reduced when we actually know who's playing instead of guessing. Especially in a season like this, with players missing games left and right
(The above moved from a post moved to new 76ers thread.)
On team specific HCA, here's a ten year difference in home point differential vs away point differential. I think if there is an effect, it should be the same every year*. Thus you can use more years to reduce noise.
*unless it is somehow player dependent. If it is, the effect is probably minor, I would believe
Oklahoma;2.34
Clippers;3.01
Boston;2.06
Orlando;3.35
Memphis;3.12
Minnesota;2.81
Jersey;3.12
Antonio;3.02
Houston;2.64
Chicago;3.36
Philadelphia;2.23
Detroit;2.301
Lakers;3.565
Toronto;3.091
Denver;4.679
Orleans;2.951
Cleveland;4.182
Dallas;3.180
Portland;3.414
Milwaukee;3.59
Washington;3.589
Miami;2.698
York;2.25
Charlotte;3.761
Golden;4.334
Phoenix;3.437
Utah;4.471
Sacramento;4.109
Atlanta;3.696
Indiana;3.9
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 2:47 am
by DSMok1
Excellent!
I would say, though, that it should be city-dependent, so split out Seattle from OKC (and whatever other franchises moved).
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:52 am
by Jeff Fogle
Interesting that Lakers are 3.56 and Clippers are 3.01 on the same floor even after the noise reduction of a 10-year study. Evidence perhaps for some player related influences that are meaningful...at least for something like generally high quality players for one team and lower quality for the other (more respect from officials in terms of drawing fouls?). So much in common in terms of what visitors are dealing with (travel, games at sea level, an assumption for a similar number of b2b's falling on night two), yet there's still a half a point over 10 years. Thanks for posting those J.E.
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:17 pm
by J.E.
DSMok1 wrote:I would say, though, that it should be city-dependent, so split out Seattle from OKC (and whatever other franchises moved).
Yeah I did that. I also separated the Charlotte Bobcats from the Charlotte Hornets.
Jeff, I think part of it is atmosphere/fans. I don't know the situation in LA, but the Lakers seem to have had a higher attendance!? Then again, they did probably also draw higher attendance at opponents. Hm. Maybe it's the floor color? The dancers?
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:51 pm
by Mike G
Here's what J.E. reported, sorted:
Code: Select all
HCA Western Conference Eastern Conference
4.68 Den 3.18 Dal 4.18 Cle 3.12 NJN
4.47 Uta 3.12 Mem 3.90 Ind 3.09 Tor
4.33 GSW 3.02 SAS 3.76 Cha 2.70 Mia
4.11 Sac 3.01 LAC 3.70 Atl 2.30 Det
3.57 LAL 2.95 NOH 3.59 Mil 2.25 NYK
3.44 Phx 2.81 Min 3.59 Was 2.23 Phl
3.41 Por 2.64 Hou 3.36 Chi 2.06 Bos
3.41 West 2.34 Okl 3.35 Orl 3.15 East
The 3 biggest HCA are in the West. The 4 smallest are in the East; in 4 of the most venerable franchise locales.
Are visiting teams "excited" to be playing in these tradition-steeped places?
Are their teams jaded, or regularly booed at home when they aren't doing well?
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:20 pm
by EvanZ
Denver and Utah are at altitude. And California fans are the best!
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 2:25 pm
by Mike G
EvanZ wrote:Denver and Utah are at altitude. ..
Den has the largest HCA over the last few years, at 4.68; Utah is 2nd with 4.47 .
If altitude is a big part of this, would we expect their HCA
against one another to be somewhat less than it is against the league in general? Maybe close to the norm of 3.3 ?
Well ... since 1985-86, they've played one another 59 times in each home venue.
In Denver, the Nuggets are 31-28, avg +.90 differential.
In SLC, they're 9-50, avg -10.36
The difference is 11.26 PPG.
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:05 pm
by EvanZ
Mike G wrote:EvanZ wrote:Denver and Utah are at altitude. ..
Den has the largest HCA over the last few years, at 4.68; Utah is 2nd with 4.47 .
If altitude is a big part of this, would we expect their HCA
against one another to be somewhat less than it is against the league in general? Maybe close to the norm of 3.3 ?
Well ... since 1985-86, they've played one another 59 times in each home venue.
In Denver, the Nuggets are 31-28, avg +.90 differential.
In SLC, they're 9-50, avg -10.36
The difference is 11.26 PPG.
That is puzzling.
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 5:29 pm
by EvanZ
I've started calculating VPR (Vegas Power Ratings) for the prior week:
http://thecity2.com/vegas-power-ratings/
Here are last week's ratings:
Code: Select all
RK TEAM LONG LVWK
1 MIA Miami Heat 9.30
2 OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 6.52
3 CHI Chicago Bulls 6.45
4 ORL Orlando Magic 4.60
5 POR Portland Trailblazers 4.29
6 DEN Denver Nuggets 3.87
7 SAS San Antonio Spurs 3.33
8 DAL Dallas Mavericks 3.09
9 PHI Philadelphia 76ers 3.08
10 LAL Los Angeles Lakers 3.02
11 LAC Los Angeles Clippers 2.30
12 BOS Boston Celtics 2.14
13 IND Indiana Pacers 1.67
14 ATL Atlanta Hawks 1.62
15 MEM Memphis Grizzlies 0.79
16 HOU Houston Rockets 0.77
17 NYK New York Knicks 0.59
18 MIL Milwaukee Bucks -1.61
19 PHX Phoenix Suns -1.69
20 UTA Utah Jazz -1.86
21 MIN Minnesota Timberwolves -2.01
22 GSW Golden State Warriors -2.48
23 TOR Toronto Raptors -4.30
24 CLE Cleveland Cavaliers -4.56
25 DET Detroit Pistons -4.77
26 SAC Sacramento Kings -4.88
27 NOH New Orleans Hornets -5.30
28 NJN New Jersey Nets -5.42
29 CHA Charlotte Bobcats -5.55
30 WAS Washington Wizards -6.03
It seems that even with just one week of games, it's enough to get a good order, at least.
Re: Power Ranking
Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 6:18 pm
by DSMok1
This begs a Bayesian treatment, with previous games weighted at a^n, where a < 1.0 and n = number of days ago. a could be found via cross-validation.