Can follow it up with a link later, but wanted to get my predictions in before the buzzer. I rounded everything and made records set to 1230, which makes this look a bit more glossy but trades off a little bit of accuracy.
Cleveland Cavaliers - 65
LA Clippers - 61
Goldenstate Warriors - 55
Phoenix Suns - 53
San Antonio Spurs - 53
Toronto Raptors - 52
Oklahoma City Thunder - 51
Portland Trailblazers - 51
Houston Rockets - 50
Chicago Bulls - 49
Memphis Grizzlies - 46
Charlotte Hornets - 45
Dallas Mavericks - 43
Denver Nuggets - 42
Atlanta Hawks - 41
Indiana Pacers - 40
Miami Heat - 39
Washington Wizards - 39
New York Knicks - 38
New Orleans Pelicans - 36
Sacramento Kings - 36
Detroit Pistons - 35
Brooklyn Nets - 34
Minnesota Timberwolves - 28
LA Lakers - 27
Utah Jazz - 27
Boston Celtics - 26
Milwaukee Bucks - 25
Orlando Magic - 23
Philadelphia 76ers - 20
Looks like I disagree with a lot of rankings as far as the Suns are concerned. People seem to think Frye is good (because of his RPM). I think he's not a difference maker.
CLE 60
CHI 54
TOR 50
WAS 47
MIA 45
ATL 44
CHA 42
DET 37
BKN 36
IND 34
BOS 30
ORL 26
NYK 24
MIL 20
PHI 17
GSW 59
SAS 59
OKC 57
LAC 56
DAL 54
MEM 50
POR 48
HOU 48
PHO 45
MIN 39
NOP 36
DEN 33
SAC 28
UTA 27
LAL 25
Ratings calculated primarily with 13-14 RPM + Age-Curve, with 12-13 XRAPM and 2014 ASPM and NPI RAPM used to predict possible improvements/regressions on offense or defense, that may not be captured by general 13-14 RPM (with its reliance on prior-year data). Low minute players were given a rating of -2 overall. I also tried a funky thing where certain players would get a boost/subtraction on either offense/defense based on certain players arriving/leaving the team.
The ratings for the East are a bit fuzzy from 8-11, as though DET/BKN didn't rate as well as IND/BOS, it really seems like the latter two will end up tanking (injuries/trading key-players), while DET/BKN seem to have an incentive to win as much as possible. I'll be posting these predictions, and the raw predictions without my tinkering on my site.
A few teams with predictions in a tight range, while Minny/Lakers/Heat have a relatively high variance.
Still time left for submissions (and/or updates to what you've already posted), but here is what I have right now. If anybody has other site's predictions or close to final Vegas #s (if they're even on both sides), I can add them too.
edit: hoopDon, I missed yours but I'll add it in soon.
West Wins East Wins
LAC 58.9 Cle 63.0
SAS 55.9 Was 47.6
Okl 51.9 Tor 45.4
Por 48.6 Atl 43.4
Phx 47.1 Chi 41.8
Hou 45.8 Cha 41.5
GSW 45.8 NYK 39.2
Mem 44.6 Det 38.4
NOP 43.9 Mia 35.5
Dal 43.1 Brk 34.6
Den 42.0 Bos 34.4
Sac 36.8 Ind 31.5
Min 36.7 Mil 27.4
Uta 33.5 Orl 26.8
LAL 33.5 Phl 11.4
avg 44.5 avg 37.4
I've regressed these to the mean. According to player eWins, the Cavs should win 70 and the Sixers 2. Honestly, it seems like it will be a miracle if they win a game. But eventually they'll run into someone not playing well.
I thought it would be a lot more fun to post my 'actual' predictions. It would be great to 'foresee' the Cavs winning 70, the Sixers starting out 1-50, etc. But in the end, I chickened out.
Bobbofitos wrote:Looks like I disagree with a lot of rankings as far as the Suns are concerned. People seem to think Frye is good (because of his RPM). I think he's not a difference maker.
Frye is my man (fellow Arizona alum) - but you are almost certainly right about Channing.
A few teams with predictions in a tight range, while Minny/Lakers/Heat have a relatively high variance.
Still time left for submissions (and/or updates to what you've already posted), but here is what I have right now. If anybody has other site's predictions or close to final Vegas #s (if they're even on both sides), I can add them too.
edit: hoopDon, I missed yours but I'll add it in soon.
Great job - my predictions based on my ratings HOPEFULLY will be done tonight. Adding D-League to NBA conversions to my projections (should be done with this in a couple hours), and tweaking some things. Minutes projections are such a pain.
+------+------+------+
| Team | Conf | Wins |
+------+------+------+
| CLE | E | 59 |
| CHI | E | 53 |
| MIA | E | 49 |
| TOR | E | 48 |
| WAS | E | 48 |
| ATL | E | 42 |
| IND | E | 41 |
| BKN | E | 36 |
| CHA | E | 32 |
| BOS | E | 31 |
| ORL | E | 30 |
| DET | E | 30 |
| NYK | E | 30 |
| MIL | E | 24 |
| PHI | E | 21 |
| SAS | W | 58 |
| GSW | W | 58 |
| DAL | W | 58 |
| LAC | W | 57 |
| MEM | W | 56 |
| OKC | W | 56 |
| HOU | W | 49 |
| POR | W | 48 |
| PHX | W | 45 |
| MIN | W | 37 |
| NOP | W | 36 |
| DEN | W | 32 |
| SAC | W | 24 |
| UTA | W | 23 |
| LAL | W | 19 |
+------+------+------+
ATL 43
bos 28
brk 41
cha 42
chi 51
Cle 57
dal 52
den 39
det 33
gsw 56
hou 48
ind 37
Lac 55
lal 25
mem 51
Mia 47
mil 25
min 31
nop 39
nyk 34
okc 50
orl 27
phi 15
pho 46
por 48
sac 30
sas 56
tor 47
uta 28
was 49
I've had predictions for a while, but I did the final tweaks last night:
54.74 Oklahoma City Thunder
41.51 Denver Nuggets
26.14 Utah Jazz
30.75 Minnesota Timberwolves
53.00 Portland Trail Blazers
56.57 Los Angeles Clippers
25.74 Los Angeles Lakers
53.45 Golden State Warriors
29.52 Sacramento Kings
49.24 Phoenix Suns
57.29 San Antonio Spurs
47.19 Memphis Grizzlies
47.75 Houston Rockets
48.96 Dallas Mavericks
41.14 New Orleans Pelicans
34.93 New York Knicks
32.39 Brooklyn Nets
27.97 Boston Celtics
48.52 Toronto Raptors
18.16 Philadelphia 76ers
34.72 Indiana Pacers
55.00 Chicago Bulls
24.94 Milwaukee Bucks
35.69 Detroit Pistons
60.04 Cleveland Cavaliers
43.22 Miami Heat
41.08 Atlanta Hawks
42.34 Washington Wizards
28.48 Orlando Magic
39.53 Charlotte Hornets
