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Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:01 am
by sndesai1
Mike G wrote: ↑Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:13 am
sndesai1 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:33 am
bk-ref projections are ok for regular season wins after a couple months, but there's no informed prior. all that it really seems to use is a team's current srs regressed towards 0 and the remaining schedule, which leads to odd projections early on.
At what point in the season is
current SRS + remaining schedule actually a better predictor than
what you thought before the season started? Could we be there already?
I stole your spreadsheet. Thanks! Is
Pinnacle what we could call
Vegas?
i feel like somebody here has done some analysis re: how long into a season it takes various stats such as net rating to stabilize...maybe it was on nylon calculus
i don't think we are at the point yet where current season srs is more valuable than preseason expectations. bk-ref is still regressing a lot (it just seems to be towards 0 for every team instead of towards something informed). i'd guess between 20-30 games is the point at which current season results should have a 50% weight in an evaluation of the remainder or the regular season. once this season comes to a close, i'll probably take a look at this since i'll already have everything compiled
re: pinnacle - yes those are the betting numbers we're using for comparison this year (just to be clear, it's hq is not anywhere near vegas). i grabbed them from shadow's post here:
http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f ... =30#p33145
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:37 pm
by Mike G
So your early projections had teeny-tiny errors based on the supposition that the Rockets will pick it up, the Bucks will cool off, etc.
Going just by to-date performance -- and daily adjustments to SOS, which buffets the SRS's noticeably -- these errors will diminish as the season goes along. The range top-to-bottom will also tighten.
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
KPel 5.94 7.83 bbst 6.92 8.54
shad 6.25 8.15 gold 7.09 8.90
vegas 6.41 8.41 Jinx 7.12 9.01
AnJo 6.45 8.22 Crow 7.34 9.72
cali 6.60 8.69 sndi 7.41 9.30
RyRi 6.62 8.65 538_ 7.47 9.46
J-TF 6.74 9.87 kmed 8.42 10.61
trzu 6.74 8.16 Cica 8.55 10.87
emin 6.77 8.75 Rd11 9.18 11.18
Vegas is holding its own now; last year (most years?) they are middling here.
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:28 am
by Mike G
Over- and under-achieving teams to date, relative to the predictions entered
Code: Select all
. over avg proj under avg proj
20 Sac 23 42 -21 Hou 57 36
13 Mil 48 61 -11 Phl 52 41
11 NYK 25 36 -11 Was 45 34
11 Cha 38 49 -11 Uta 54 43
10 Por 40 51 -9 Min 45 36
9 LAC 38 47 -8 Cle 32 24
8 Mem 33 41 -7 GSW 64 57
5 Chi 26 31 -5 LAL 44 39
Current
projections are according to b-r.com, with serious regression to .500
avg is the average wins predicted by 16 individuals
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:04 pm
by Mike G
The order has hardly changed, but errors have worsened, and Pelton has extended his lead.
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
KPel 6.09 7.86 emin 7.12 8.65
shad 6.60 8.09 gold 7.16 8.78
AnJo 6.64 8.16 Jinx 7.22 8.84
J-TF 6.77 9.70 Crow 7.46 9.48
vegas 6.81 8.30 sndi 7.64 9.19
cali 6.83 8.47 538_ 7.72 9.35
RyRi 6.88 8.57 Cica 8.72 10.91
trzu 6.94 8.04 kmed 8.73 10.45
bbst 7.10 8.54 Rd11 9.40 11.13
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:55 pm
by Rd11490
I knew my projections were off (way to long at the tails), but I didn't expect to be this bad. Kings and cavs are killing me.
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:20 pm
by Mike G
Last year on this date, 4 contestants were looking worse in avg error.
Eminence was 15th at MAE = 9.1, and he went on to win it.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9403&hilit=prediction&start=75
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:29 pm
by caliban
PM me if I've fat fingered your entry. Open png in new tab for better resolution.
10+ games in. Projections courtesy of
TeamRankings, Rankings & Projections Summary
FiveThirtyEight, NBA Predictions
bbstats, Luck-Adjusted Win Prediction
East projected to win 590 games. 615 being equal.
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:25 am
by Mike G
Based only on current season as projected by b-r.com
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
KPel 6.17 8.23 Jinx 7.14 8.97
AnJo 6.66 8.36 emin 7.19 8.78
shad 6.68 8.34 gold 7.20 8.94
vegas 6.80 8.46 Crow 7.36 9.34
trzu 6.80 8.02 sndi 7.42 9.28
J-TF 6.83 9.94 538_ 7.80 9.46
RyRi 6.90 8.78 kmed 8.65 10.45
cali 6.93 8.60 Cica 8.69 11.08
bbst 6.97 8.69 Rd11 9.40 11.15
11-14, some nice improvements in 2 days:
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
KPel 5.80 7.86 Jinx 6.80 8.56
AnJo 6.03 7.92 J-TF 6.82 9.63
shad 6.18 7.90 Crow 6.89 8.85
trzu 6.41 7.56 gold 6.95 8.62
vegas 6.41 8.05 sndi 7.07 8.87
RyRi 6.45 8.34 538_ 7.40 9.07
bbst 6.54 8.29 kmed 8.24 10.06
cali 6.61 8.16 Cica 8.25 10.45
emin 6.69 8.15 Rd11 9.13 10.75
Pelton era over?
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
AnJo 5.71 7.72 emin 6.70 8.24
KPel 5.71 7.78 Jinx 6.72 8.57
shad 5.94 7.71 J-TF 6.83 9.60
vegas 6.17 7.81 sndi 7.06 8.86
trzu 6.24 7.47 538_ 7.09 8.96
RyRi 6.27 8.22 Crow 7.11 9.02
bbst 6.41 8.22 kmed 8.08 9.98
cali 6.44 8.13 Cica 8.62 10.66
gold 6.64 8.56 Rd11 9.22 11.09
One day later (11-16), nope:
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
KPel 5.81 7.77 gold 6.73 8.59
AnJo 5.89 7.77 emin 6.74 8.07
shad 6.04 7.66 Jinx 6.81 8.57
vegas 6.11 7.69 sndi 7.10 8.84
trzu 6.40 7.46 538_ 7.18 8.98
RyRi 6.43 8.20 Crow 7.25 9.00
bbst 6.52 8.26 kmed 8.16 9.98
cali 6.61 8.13 Cica 8.79 10.63
J-TF 6.64 9.41 Rd11 9.13 11.12
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:08 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
AnJo 5.97 7.67 Jinx 6.73 8.51
shad 6.07 7.62 J-TF 6.76 9.28
vegas 6.08 7.70 gold 6.92 8.54
KPel 6.09 7.77 sndi 6.95 8.76
trzu 6.36 7.34 Crow 7.17 8.91
cali 6.45 8.09 538_ 7.27 8.94
RyRi 6.46 8.13 kmed 8.19 9.87
emin 6.68 7.98 Cica 8.64 10.43
bbst 6.70 8.20 Rd11 9.02 10.97
The West continues to dominate the East in inter-conference games.
Those who predicted this are somehow near the bottom.
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:44 pm
by sndesai1
Thanksgiving Update
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... IwFv_wPes/
Code: Select all
Rank Entry MAE
1 tarrazu 3.70
2 bbstats 3.78
3 Pinnacle (No Juice) 3.79
4 Average 3.97
5 shadow 3.99
6 caliban 4.00
7 sndesai1 4.04
8 ESPN BPI 4.06
9 eminence 4.07
10 RyanRiot 4.08
11 Jinxed 4.10
12 Andrew Johnson 4.11
13 jgoldstein34 4.17
14 Kevin Pelton 4.27
15 ESPN Summer Forecast 4.29
16 538 4.35
17 Jrue-Tang Forever 4.49
18 kmedved 4.71
19 Crow 4.99
20 Pyth + Regression 5.74
21 Rd11490 5.85
22 Cicada 6.20
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 3:05 pm
by Mike G
Based on the season in progress;
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
KPel 6.32 8.17 gold 7.11 8.95
AnJo 6.51 8.07 emin 7.27 8.66
shad 6.62 8.13 sndi 7.33 9.15
trzu 6.64 7.86 J-TF 7.33 9.63
vegas 6.65 8.21 538_ 7.55 9.34
cali 6.73 8.60 Crow 7.73 9.69
RyRi 6.75 8.56 kmed 8.43 10.38
Jinx 7.02 8.94 Cica 9.10 11.01
bbst 7.09 8.53 Rd11 9.21 11.38
12-01: New undisputed leader
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
trzu 6.29 7.52 J-TF 6.99 9.44
KPel 6.44 7.89 Jinx 7.08 8.72
AnJo 6.62 7.96 emin 7.10 8.40
gold 6.73 8.49 sndi 7.24 8.93
bbst 6.73 8.09 538_ 7.48 9.04
shad 6.75 8.01 Crow 7.85 9.52
cali 6.77 8.44 kmed 7.93 9.85
vegas 6.90 8.13 Cica 8.92 10.74
RyRi 6.95 8.33 Rd11 9.19 11.12
12-05 Pulling away:
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
trzu 6.16 7.53 J-TF 6.99 9.48
KPel 6.53 7.95 emin 7.03 8.39
gold 6.69 8.50 Jinx 7.11 8.76
bbst 6.69 8.06 sndi 7.17 8.86
shad 6.73 8.03 538_ 7.46 9.02
cali 6.74 8.54 kmed 7.57 9.84
AnJo 6.75 7.99 Crow 7.84 9.61
vegas 6.86 8.15 Cica 8.89 10.74
RyRi 6.94 8.34 Rd11 8.90 11.20
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:22 am
by Mike G
Major improvements at last:
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
trzu 5.54 6.96 emin 6.39 7.93
KPel 6.01 7.45 Jinx 6.49 8.23
shad 6.04 7.54 sndi 6.66 8.41
bbst 6.07 7.53 J-TF 6.67 9.40
AnJo 6.23 7.63 538_ 6.89 8.57
vegas 6.23 7.70 kmed 7.20 9.39
cali 6.25 8.12 Crow 7.21 9.11
RyRi 6.29 7.92 Rd11 8.21 10.55
gold 6.38 8.13 Cica 8.25 10.26
12/13 update
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
trzu 5.79 7.18 Jinx 6.49 8.35
emin 6.11 7.91 gold 6.53 8.29
shad 6.14 7.68 sndi 6.59 8.45
bbst 6.17 7.69 J-TF 6.68 9.52
KPel 6.21 7.74 538_ 7.05 8.76
vegas 6.21 7.77 Crow 7.29 9.21
cali 6.31 8.28 kmed 7.30 9.63
AnJo 6.35 7.83 Rd11 8.11 10.68
RyRi 6.40 8.10 Cica 8.33 10.37
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Dec 16, 2018 4:55 am
by sndesai1
the various projections are becoming pretty consistent now - bk-ref still has a few outliers such as gsw/hou where the exclusion of information outside this season makes them a little more pessimistic than average
538 also has a few divergent expectations relative to the average, though not to the same extent
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:09 pm
by Mike G
These 18 entries now show avg error of 6.29, an improvement of 1.00 since end of Nov.
Code: Select all
avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse
trzu 5.35 6.62 Jinx 5.99 7.75
vegas 5.67 6.99 J-TF 6.13 8.74
shad 5.76 6.88 sndi 6.23 7.88
AnJo 5.80 7.08 gold 6.26 7.78
KPel 5.82 6.99 538_ 6.66 8.10
cali 5.82 7.57 Crow 7.05 8.86
emin 5.90 7.36 kmed 7.18 9.08
RyRi 5.91 7.37 Cica 7.79 9.67
bbst 5.97 7.21 Rd11 7.86 10.27
The avg is dragged down by the bottom 1/4; but in the last 3 weeks the spread (top to bottom) has also shrunk from 3.13 to 2.51
Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:03 pm
by Rd11490
Minnesota, Sacramento and Cleveland are absolutely ruining me >.<