Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

The 3 young Thunder players highest on DARKO projection were all taken outside of own draft (Waters, Joe, Omoruyi). All 11 own draft picks since Dort are -1 or worse. The highest draft pick on team, Giddey, has the clear cut worst DARKO projection at -3 (replacement level or below depending on chosen standard).

-1 is slightly below median. 70% of Thunder are below that or real close (Omoruyi at -0.9).

Despite SGA's high mark on current BPM, he is only +1.5 on DARKO projection, good for about 60th place. 60th place would be a low ranked #2 on a team generally or maybe a high #3. Only about 4 #1s on teams rank lower. But one could day DARKO is lagged.

[Crow]

Coach Daigneault with 3rd worst record among active NBA coaches and a large gap to 4th worst.

[Crow]

200 minutes is sometimes mentioned as a threshold of a significant or at least decent lineup test. Thunder on track for barely 2 but it could end up being 1 to 3. Very little chance for more than 3 out of probably around 900. All with SGA-Giddey-Dort and all with 2 of 3 of J Williams, Pokusevski and JRE. So so little will be learned about lineups from this season. And what is learned about those chosen lineups will likely to continue to be ignored in favor of pre-existing design and related hopes. 2currently horrendous, 1 just moderately bad (the non-Poku lineup).

[Crow]

Team went from 8 series won in first 7 years of OKC ownership to 2 series won in last 8 years. 10 series in 15 years is 0.67 per year.

[Crow]

Smashed thru the 400 lineup total. On to 500 by late January or sooner.

[Crow]

Thunder starters -40 something / 100p in first stint.



Thunder down 10pts in 1st quarter with Lillard scoreless so far.

[Crow]

SGA - Poku, -11pts / 100p. Dort - Poku, -16. With Giddey, -17. With Jalen Williams -21.

Do they really think any of these turn around? Or just tanking?

Or maybe I should say tank & cover or tank and exuburance.

[Crow]

Thunder starters hold a lead after first 6 minutes for a change... and lose it all back and more in the 7th.

In comes Joe, K Williams and Bazley. Played together all of 15 minutes for season, the 260th most tested trio. Those first 15 minutes looked good but they gave away most of that prior edge in next 5 minutes. First substitution to such a limited test lineup? Doesn't sound that wise, but that is what Coach D came up with.
And then things kept getting worse...

[Crow]

SGA with a barely positive raw +/- and 9th on team. The 5 most common other starters have the 5 worst +/-s. These 2 statements are related.

Jalen Williams with team worst +/- so far tonight, breaking his tie with Giddey for 2nd worst for season.

[Crow]

Starters end up -26pts / 100p last night, in line with season average.

Normalized, self-inflicted nonsense.

[Crow]

I Joe's best pairs are with SGA, Giddey, Wiggins and Bazley.

Some great performing, low minute trios with 2 of the first 3. A very few great minutes with these as a quad. Not a second as a 5 man lineup.

It is "funny" how a Coach who will throw hundreds of dink lineups out there, doesn't give any time to some that appear likely to work by sub-lineup data. Astute tanker or missing in understanding?

[Crow]

Thunder are 6th highest on shot rate within 3 feet, one of their best marks. But it is mitigated somewhat by 3rd lowest at the rim fg%. 4th lowest fg% from 3-10 feet. 7th lowest ft rate. A strategy... with modest returns (8th worst offensive efficiency).

Defensive efficiency was above average in short first month, well below average since. Average for season overall but won't be if January is anything like November (horrible) or December (bad).

[Crow]

https://twitter.com/NickAGallo/status/1 ... SPJT2_xvgw

Griz had way to way way higher win% at end of season the last 3 seasons than Thunder currently with weighted average ages of 24.2, 24.0 and 24.1.

Will have to wait awhile to see where the Thunder win rate ends up.

[Crow]

Need a new starting lineup due to injury? The selection goes -37pts / 100p tonight.

Zero seconds of prior use for the lineup of course. Jaylin Williams with 1 minute of experience with SGA.

Absolutely needed a new starting lineup for performance reasons IF really trying fully to win. But probably not that one.

I don't recall Coach or front office ever saying anything but the very poor starting trend. Might not want to draw attention to incriminating evidence.

No lineup that close to 3 minutes per game for season and only 3 over 1 minute per game.


Still on a straightline average headed toward over 1000 lineups for season. I've been expecting it to fall short of that but it is still possible.

7 brand new lineups tonight. Not the norm but still says 429 prior choices weren't enough for Coach D and his intentions.

[DarkStar48]

Thunder should try a starting lineup of Joe/Gilgeous-Alexander/Giddey/Williams, K./Muscala (or switch out Dort for Joe and/or Omoruyi for Muscala).

I would still like to see the Dort/Gilgeous-Alexander/Giddey/Williams, K./Omoruyi lineup as part of the rotation.

Other lineups to use are Joe/Gilgeous-Alexander/Giddey/Williams, K./Omoruyi and Dort/Gilgeous-Alexander/Giddey/Williams, K./Muscala.