'22-23 Commentary

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Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Warriors have best performing lineup among 50 most used. Griz second.

Thunder have the worst performing (-32pts / 48 min), with a 40% gap to second worst.

Only 10 lineups with 200 plus minutes. Only 30 more over 100 minutes. That is equal to 3.6 minutes per game for season.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Unusual night in that the starting lineup with Bazley did great.

Done in by many awful 1-3 minute lineups. Most brand new.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Year to year change on net, offensive and defensive efficiency:

https://twitter.com/tvbassine/status/16 ... E6roKjilMg

Also a table on lineups with majorities of starters or bench players nearby. Only about 9 good to great benches by this measure and the Warriors are the worst.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

BRef gives Wizards 3% to make top 8, 7% for top 10%.

Lakers, 29% for top 10. TWolves, 25%, Thunder 21%.

Warriors, 60% chance involved in play in round. Probably more. Hawks, Raptors, Heat, Bulls, Pacers and Clippers even more likely to be involved in that round. Not doing enough right and injury impacts.

BRef now exactly matches the title% I gave Celtics more than 2 weeks ago of 22%. Team differences beyond that, but BRef has come down 9%pts to within 1%pt of my mark of 69% for cumulative chance share of top 6 to win title. I haven't tried to update my predictions yet but I got to those marks before BRef.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Celtics drop 4th game in last 5 and lose 1st place to the Bucks at the moment.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Spurs have only one player positive on DRIP projection, Poeltl at +0.6. Only Pistons equal that, though several others are close.

Great for a tank, a multi-year tank. Probably a long time before they see .500 again.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Raptors 20 most used lineups, cumulative +110. 237 other lineups, -91. It is so obvious but Coaches continue the pattern and nobody in front office stops them.

Not much reason to hope for Coaches to change on own or for GM to make them.

Owners? Which owner is going to wake up and demand lineup management change??

Gradual lineup changes thru poor performing transitional libeups is the coaching norm but a mostly ground losing norm. Play your best lineups one to exactly the next. Boom, boom, boom. Cut out the heavily documented and much too common bullsh*t.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Pistons retake last place, at least for the moment.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Griz deep bench has seemingly good names but they all are getting weak to very weak on and on/off +/-. Have to consider context & lineup management but in general have to say this is somewhat surprising and disappointing.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

The executive of the Pistons whose team has compiled a record of 51W - 136L, that has a worse record than last season, the worst in the league, and without any hint of playoffs in sight any time soon is extended early.

The coach of the Pistons with 11 of 14 most used lineups negative and 7 of them in double digits negative (and most way way beyond that threshold) and just 2 lineups over the equivalent of 1.5 minutes per game also continues on his generous prior extension.

That is a patient owner. Overly so? I think so, but his call. His talk of playoff contention before the season does not look accurate or realistic now.

Rebuilding team led on BPM by 33 and 31 year olds and Kevin Knox. 6 obtained first rounders down the list and all still in negative territory. The five playing tonight all with negative +/- so far, team down 19 a few minutes before half.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Celtics down 18 to Pacers with time still in the 1st quarter.

Down 28 at half.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Warrior youngins playing and team down 40 at half.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Hasn't been any trades in NBA in over 80 days.

Appears one or both sides of any discussions are being unrealistic or are just holding out for potential of something better or having indecision whether to proceed.

About 50 more days to deadline. Almost all will be quiet til the last few.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Best 4 team records were in East before tonight but West as a whole still has about a 52% to 48% divisional win record lead.
Crow
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Re: '22-23 Commentary

Post by Crow »

Wizards, 25th on wins and on SRS, 23rd on offensive and defensive efficiency. 3 weak factors pull them down. In the 20s on all three parts of Moreyball and one of the very lowest overall.

Have a great performing starting lineup that has been used 4 minutes & change per game and short of 7 minutes per game when Beal was available. Should be 15-20 minutes per game.

278 lineups used means an average of 8 brand new lineups per game. Not as scattered as the most scattered but still very very scattered.
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