2023 Draft notes

[Crow]

A few comments on combine data:

Zach Edey projects as 7-5 in shoes. Kalkenbrenner 7-2. Hendricks is slightly bigger than previously listed. Jalen Wilson shorter.

A Black has pretty short arms, making his height somewhat less impressive. Camara is long.

Podziemski is quick and can really jump.

[Crow]

Not unexpected to want options, but multiple teams (and writers) immediately talking of exploring or perhaps planning to trade top picks, not wanting to wait years for significant impact

[Crow]

Vecenie moves Sanogo "into top 50".

I recently moved Sanogo down... to 16th.

[Crow]

ESPN has Nnaji 23rd. 75th to me.

[Crow]

Current 2023 NBA draft big board

Wembanyama
T Jackson-Davis
Br Miller
Jaquez
Walker

Sasser
Co Jones
Hendricks
Murray
L Miller
Podziemski
Coulibaly
Ausar Thompson
Amen Thompson
Henderson

Timme
Dick
Tshiebwe
J Hawkins
Sensabaugh
Lively
Clowney
Bufkin
Black

Sanogo
C Wallace
Pickett
K Brown
Tubelis
K Davis
Hodge
J Clark
L Robbins
De Williams
Castleton
N Dante
M Carr
A Watson
J Stephens
Whitmore
Br Smith
Nunge
A Flagler
A Jackson

J Miller
Camara
Slawson
Wong
M Nowell
Mal Smith
J Wilson
H Tyson
Nnaji
Whitehead
K Johnson
Makhi Mitchell
K George
S Rice

[Crow]

Ben Sheppard, called a top recent riser?

+3.6 BPM, +3.8 RAPM.

Not on my big board. Not changing for 1 combine scrimmage or a pro day or happy / hopeful video analysis.

[Crow]

Upside swing: taking a guy in the draft higher than what their performance today indicates because you hope they will develop and offer more, more than the other options, more proven to date options.

Taking upside swings in top 20 of draft over the last 7 years? There are different types of swings on players with upside potential, from a current "good" or adequate prospect performance level to lesser current performances that by themself are not worthy of a pick or pick where taken. But I couldn't find any such guy meh to weak on BPM in college, especially as a 1 & done freshman, who became "good" so far in the NBA.

Troy Brown and Lonnie Walker were meh to weak on BPM in college and they aren't completely awful in NBA but they aren't that much either. If you can find a better recent upswide swing result on a guy who didn't deserve it based on college, let me know who I missed. Til then, the theory lacks a compelling recent example of success.

Taking upside swings on the meh to weak on BPM in top 20 of this draft? There are lots of advocated cases. By others, not me.
I don't expect or even hope for a happy reward beyond current performance. I don't believe it at all likely based on history.

It "could" happen. But Bullwinkle never pulled a rabbit out of his hat while trying, hoping (to my memory).

I know I am not going to stop people from hoping or expecting to do so. But their plan does not have a track record and does not impress or inspire trust.

[Crow]

Time is winding down on this draft project. I could have done more or a lot more. Or less. But it is almost over.

I am still tweaking the 1st round in a post above. Haven't down much with 2nd round lately and probably will do little if any.

We'll see what happens, in draft and in future performance.

[DarkStar48]

My provisional “Can’t Miss” NBA prospects are:

Tier 1
1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Ausar Thompson
3. Amen Thompson

Tier 2
4. Bilal Coulibaly
5. Jarace Walker
6. Leonard Miller
7. Cam Whitmore

I include the Thompson twins, but I am not sure how to evaluate the Overtime Elite competition.

[Crow]

My 2nd round (see 7 posts above) is significantly updated. A few 1st round changes too.

There are about 20 guys on consensus top 60 who are not on mine at all and about 10 more I am significantly lower on. I am notably higher than consensus on at least 35 guys. There are some cases where I am close to consensus, but not that many (maybe 10).

[DarkStar48]

My current 2nd Rd. “Worthy Project” rankings are:
1. Brandin Podziemski
2. Adama Sanogo
3. Kobe Brown
4. Hunter Tyson
5. Oscar Tshiebwe
6. Jaylen Clark
7. Jazian Gortman

I am still uncomfortable with the Overtime Elite stuff, but I think Gortzman is a worthy developmental draftee if it translates.

I was higher on Pickett earlier in the year, but I have been souring on Pickett because of some concerning late season trends. Still haven’t made a final determination for him on this list.

[Crow]

Had not looked at Gortzman before

[DarkStar48]

My complete “Can’t Miss” NBA prospects are:

Tier 1
1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Amen Thompson
3. Ausar Thompson

Tier 2
4. Bilal Coulibaly
5. Jarace Walker
‪6. Brandin Podziemski‬
7. Cam Whitmore

‪——————————————————————————

My FINAL 2nd Rd. “Worthy Project” rankings are:‬
1. Leonard Miller
‪2. Adama Sanogo‬
‪3. Hunter Tyson‬
‪4. Oscar Tshiebwe‬
‪5. Jaylen Clark‬
‪6. Jazian Gortman‬

I flipped the order of the Thompson twins. Furthermore, I promoted Podziemski to Tier 2 of the “Can’t Miss” draftees.

I dropped Miller to the 2nd Rd. pickups. I also took Brown out altogether.

[Crow]

Compared to a compilation of 64 draft boards on Twitter, I am the very highest or lowest on about 15 guys in consensus first round and another 15 in second round (if you recognize who I do not list and some I did not come close to listing).

[Crow]

Post-draft thoughts:

Cissiko looks like a bad pick to me, but we'll see. Time at PG? Wembanyama gets a countryman. Whether that is important to or for him, I dunno.

Kris Murray to Blazers is fine. Not supportive of Henderson or especially Rupert.

Jett Howard to Magic was one of the biggest over-reaches of night imo, along with Hood-Schifino at 17.

Didn't like George at 16 to Jazz either, but it is not quite as bad. Otherwise Jazz did alright last night.

Was not a supporter of Cason Wallace at #10 to Thunder (with Bertans baggage) but we'll have to see how much they use him and how they change the roster and lineups as a result of him. Will Bertans be used as salary cap ballast in a future trade? I hope so.

K Johnson over Jackson-Davis was not something I would have considered at all. Another case where backstory attraction appears to be a factor. Very disappointed in not taking TJD when available so low.

Heat were smart to take Jaquez.

Expected Whitmore to fall below consensus. I would have let him fall further.

Nuggets did pretty well for themselves.

Kings and Timberwolves made good picks for pick numbers.

Celtics could have had Sasser or C Jones but preferred future 2nd rounders. Not supportive of the Walsh pick. I would have focused 100% on the now.

The UFA market came on pretty strong. TJD to Warriors was a great pickup. Timme to Bucks has potential.


Expected many to all of my picks higher than consensus to go closer to consensus. The more important thing to me is how they perform and give value in 6 months & beyond.

I might be high or too high on future NBA performance of some strong NCAA bigs. Time will tell. I might have been less so if the smaller, more hyped players had been better.