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2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2023 11:03 pm
by Crow
For those inclined.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2023 9:04 pm
by Mike G
Appealing to anyone who knows of anyone who has spent the time conjecturing minutes allocation to players, listed by team; and who can direct to or actually post these numbers.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2023 1:24 pm
by DarkStar48
Mike G wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2023 9:04 pm
Appealing to anyone who knows of anyone who has spent the time conjecturing
minutes allocation to players, listed by team; and who can direct to or actually post these numbers.
Of the publicly available minutes projections, I have often gotten the best results with ones from Josh Lloyd (@redrock_bball) and BasketballMonster (paywall: basketballmonster.com).
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2023 3:22 am
by Crow
Minute estimates matter... but how much? If systems matter and synergies matter, one isn't going to get to the exact final answer with average individual impact estimates x minute estimates.
Unless one has a way of estimating system impacts (likely somewhat revised and unstated or under-surmised) and synergies (RAPM pushed hard may help some but not perfectly), the result could easily be 10-20% plus or minus the simple product states above. Even best guesses on these are not that reliable. Guesses on fine minute assignments especially outside the top 4-6-8 are just one of at least 5 kinds of guesses.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2023 12:09 pm
by DarkStar48
Kevin Pelton released his win projections for 2023-24.
Link:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/inside ... l-30-teams
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2023 12:18 pm
by DarkStar48
Andy Bailey released Bleacher Report’s 2023-24 win predictions.
Link:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/100 ... le-release
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2023 12:40 pm
by DarkStar48
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 2:24 pm
by Mike G
A lot of smart people seem very high on the Bucks this year, but I don't know what to think. Everyone on the team will have to play more minutes than they did last season.
Here's my current layout of minutes:
Code: Select all
Bucks'24 tm23 Min23 age Min? e484 PER WS/48 BPM
Giannis Mil 2024 28 2400 3.02 29.0 .204 8.5
Lillard Por 2107 32 2300 2.17 26.7 .205 7.1
Beasley LAL 2093 26 2100 .69 10.9 .032 -2.0
B Lopez Mil 2373 34 2100 1.37 18.4 .161 2.1
Middleton Mil 801 31 2000 1.41 17.4 .117 0.8
Portis Mil 1818 27 1900 1.61 17.8 .139 0.7
Connaughton Mil 1443 30 1500 .52 10.0 .085 -1.0
Payne Phx 968 28 1200 .93 13.2 .053 -1.2
Crowder Mil 340 32 1100 .92 14.6 .165 1.2
Beauchamp Mil 701 22 1000 .30 8.2 .027 -4.8
Bucks'24 tm23 Min23 age Min? e484 PER WS/48 BPM
Washington Hou 433 21 700 .18 7.5 -.016 -6.3
AJ Green Mil 345 23 700 .67 11.5 .111 -0.9
R Lopez Cle 299 34 400 .46 11.6 .094 -3.0
A Jackson #36 0 R 200 (.22 11.1 .022 -4.)
Thanasis Mil 206 30 200 .02 6.7 .022 -7.6
totals 15951 19800 1.34 17.1 .120 1.3
Livingston #58
M Bolden z
J Gortman
Their #2, 4, 6, 8, and 9 in minutes last year are gone. Only 3 of the new guys ran even 500 last year.
Assigning no minutes to those bottom 3, as historically they are in a stratum that plays little.
The aggregate needs to pick up almost another 4000 minutes to reach 48+ per game.
Giannis hasn't hit 2400 min. in 5 years. Dame avg's just over 2000 in last 4 -- and he's 32.
Lopez in perfect health last year managed just 30 mpg. Portis has peaked at 26 mpg.
EDIT: Sixers seem similarly stretched, and with the Harden mess on top of it.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:36 pm
by DQuinn1575
so you have the 10 at 17,600 minutes. I looked at last year, and had only these teams above that amount for their top 10 guys
ATL
BOS
CHI
CLE
MIA
NYK
SAC
with the average being 16,671 - now I didnt factor in traded guys (like Bridges), but still I think with the age/injury concerns, you probably want to drop the minutes for MIL for their top 10 guys.
Looking at this, CHI & SAC were 1-2 with 18,451 & 18,361, with BOS & CLE were 18.042 and 18.083 and again the average under 17k. Most would say that CHI & SAC were lucky and have a few more missed minutes, maybe making 18k the top, but the average projection should maybe be 17k ?
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 20, 2023 3:50 am
by DarkStar48
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Oct 20, 2023 4:49 pm
by v-zero
I need to sense check these so they may be altered before opening tip, but I'll get the ball rolling.
Edit: These have been edited after I spotted a few issues during the sanity check, most teams have changed by about half a win but a few notable bigger changes are:
Knicks get another 2.2 wins, Milwaukee lose 1.4, Phoenix gain 1.4, Golden State gain 6.2 (I had made a pretty huge error with Golden State), Dallas gain 3, Portland lose 2, San Antonio lose 1.7, Toronto lose 2.2, Boston lose 1.2, Chicago lose 1.2.
Edit2: The loss of Steven Adams for the season drops Memphis just over 3 wins and pushes everybody else in the league up by about 0.1 wins.
Code: Select all
BOS 58.5
NYK 55.7
MIL 52.2
PHI 51.7
CLE 49.3
DEN 49.2
PHO 47.4
GSW 47.0
MIN 46.0
NOP 44.9
SAC 43.4
ATL 43.1
LAC 42.9
MEM 42.8
MIA 42.5
BRK 41.0
TOR 40.8
DAL 40.0
LAL 39.3
CHI 39.0
UTA 39.0
OKC 37.3
IND 34.3
CHO 33.4
WAS 32.8
ORL 32.7
HOU 30.5
POR 28.1
SAS 23.6
DET 21.6
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2023 4:22 am
by Crow
Thunder, 21st in immediately above projection list.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2023 10:20 am
by v-zero
Crow wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 4:22 am
Thunder, 21st in immediately above projection list.
22nd now after my sanity check. Honestly I personally expect them to be better than that, but this is a purely numerical forecast.
The one I am most bemused by is the Knicks, who actually gained in the sanity check. I can't really imagine them getting to 56 wins. The explanation is simple enough: Thibodeau loves to ride his best players and recently the Knicks squad has been very healthy and developing well. My model suggests they have nine players at or above league average who will make up almost all of their minutes this season, so their amount of court time for players around replacement level is far lower than any other team in the league. Realistically there's a good chance they will have to play more replacement level minutes than the model thinks.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2023 5:51 pm
by Crow
My eyes did not see the Knicks projection first time through. I should look into that one.
Probably ends up with ten at 10+ min. used per game for season with rest, injuries and players having weak stretches. 11 last season. But, yeah; big fall off after that.
Not much roster change in off-season. I'd be looking for a consolidation trade or some sort of upgrade by trade. Probably should have been already imo; but there is time and they did make an in-season move last spring.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2023 2:13 pm
by DQuinn1575
First time ever trying this, and still adjusting my formulas, but figured I'd better post something if I'm going to do it. My aging formulas don't like GSW, and I didn't give anybody healthy going in less than 65 games. If I get to it I will tweak these, but if not here goes:
BOS 56.8
PHI 54.3
LAL 52.2
CLE 51.6
MIL 50.9
DEN 48.3
NOP 48.1
PHO 47.5
ATL 46.1
LAC 45.9
MEM 45.3
MIA 44.3
NYK 44.1
BRK 42.5
CHI 42.2
TOR 42.1
UTA 41.7
MIN 41.4
ORL 39.5
SAC 38.7
GSW 37.0
DAL 35.8
OKC 34.2
WAS 33.2
CHO 32.0
POR 32.0
IND 31.9
SAS 27.4
DET 23.3
HOU 21.1