APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri Nov 03, 2023 12:16 pm**

It's well known that players who get assists also rack up turnovers. And big scorers also tend to get more than those who only stand and wait. Even rebounding, by the act of possession, will get you some TO.
In the 2022-23 season, the relation ran like this:
TO? = .202*Ast + .056*Pts + .10*OReb + .02*DReb

TO? is the avg or expected TO which accompanies these other productions.
After minimizing the league-wide error between expected and actual TO, I sorted all players by their absolute departure from expectation.
At the top was Detroit rookie Jaden Ivey, who had 80 more TO than he "should have", given his Pts, Reb, and Ast; followed closely by Jordan Poole of GS.
Next up, Jimmy Butler -- but he was on the stingy side, with 69 fewer than avg, considering his productions.

There were about 45 players who departed by 33+, and I separated them into 'careful' and 'careless' with the ball.
Each group is then ranked by their 'surplus' or 'extra' TO per 36 minutes. Negative is good!

Code: Select all

x/36    careful     Pos  Age   Tm   TO?    TO     x/36    careless   Pos  Age   Tm   TO?    TO
-1.22  Kevon Looney  5   26   GSW   111    45     1.70   Daishen Nix  1   20   HOU    43    86
-1.16  Tyus Jones    1   26   MEM   137    74     1.25   Jaden Ivey   2   20   DET   157   237
-1.15  Jimmy Butler  3   33   MIA   170   101     1.17   Bol Bol      4   23   ORL    63   112
-1.01  Monte Morris  1   27   WAS   108    60     1.15   R Westbrook  1   34   LAL   136   184
-.93   T Haliburton  1   22   IND   190   141     1.12  Jordan Poole  1   23   GSW   175   252

-.92   Al Horford    5   36   BOS    86    37     1.07   R Westbrook  1   34   TOT   192   255
-.86   Chris Paul    1   37   PHO   159   114     1.01  Kelly Olynyk  5   31   UTA   113   168
-.76   Clint Capela  5   28   ATL    90    54      .90   J Clarkson   2   30   UTA   136   186
-.71   Tre Jones     1   23   SAS   149   110      .86  Zach Collins  5   25   SAS    95   129
-.70  Kawhi Leonard  3   31   LAC   122    88      .84  Ant. Edwards  2   21   MIN   193   259

x/36    careful     Pos  Age   Tm   TO?    TO     x/36    careless   Pos  Age   Tm   TO?    TO
-.69   Mike Conley   1   35   TOT   142   103      .84   Kyle Kuzma   4   27   WAS   138   190
-.65   Kyrie Irving  1   30   TOT   169   128      .83   Draymond     4   32   GSW   151   204
-.65   Tyrese Maxey  2   22   PHI   116    80      .78  Kevin Porter  1   22   HOU   144   188
-.64  Jalen Brunson  1   26   NYK   185   142      .72   P Banchero   4   20   ORL   151   200
-.62   Gary Trent    2   24   TOR    92    55      .69   B Mathurin   3   20   IND   110   152

-.61  Fred VanVleet  1   28   TOR   183   140      .68   Giannis A    4   28   MIL   208   246
-.57   S Dinwiddie   1   29   TOT   188   145      .65   A Şengün     5   20   HOU   154   193
-.57  Derrick White  2   28   BOS   132    95      .63   Valančiūnas  5   30   NOP   125   159
-.54   I Quickley    1   23   NYK   135   100      .61   Paul George  3   32   LAC   143   176
-.53   Trey Murphy   3   22   NOP    97    61      .55   Jalen Green  2   20   HOU   160   200

x/36    careful     Pos  Age   Tm   TO?    TO     x/36    careless   Pos  Age   Tm   TO?    TO
-.46  DeMar DeRozan  3   33   CHI   187   153      .52  Jaylen Brown  3   26   BOS   162   197
-.44  Pascal Siakam  5   28   TOR   202   169      .49   Trae Young   1   24   ATL   266   300
-.43  Mikal Bridges  3   26   TOT   162   127     (.89   R Westbrook  1   34   LAC    55    71)
                       
-.73   averages     2.3  28.0       144   101       .87    averages  2.8  25.5       146   194

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... otals.html
Props to Haliburton, Maxey, Quickley, and Tre's Jones and Murphy for being ahead of the curve in ball-security.
Trade Horford for Olynyk if you want another 2 TO per game.

James Harden led the NBA in Ast/G but was 6th in TO/G. And while he has been a prolific TO machine in earlier times, this last season he actually hit the minus column, with 8 fewer than expected or -.14/36

Posted: **Fri Nov 03, 2023 10:41 pm**

Interesting data.

Even more to consider.

There are a lot of things that can be tracked on turnovers including team on / off turnovers. Looney on saw less turnovers last regular season than off but more in last playoffs and more in start of this season. (On/off data has lots of contributions from others of course.)

His to/gm and to% this season are currently at career highs.

RAPM own TO factor was moderately positive but just moderately. Factor might be too regressed and / or impact on team turnovers may be deeper and more complex than boxscore turnovers.

I am not that comfortable talking about randomness but actuals will probably ebb and flow with some element of randomness.

Not sure if scoring of passing turnovers is super accurate between passer and receiver.

Trends over time should be considered along with most recent season.

Looney is just one example. Correlation of broad data over many or all players would be worth pursuing. For insiders or others sufficiently motivated.

Posted: **Sat Nov 04, 2023 2:58 pm**

Looney has 7 TO in 6 games, about twice last year's rate.
This is 2.4 TO/100 poss., about 50% more than his career rate.
Assists are 50% above career rate, so maybe he's being more involved in the offense. Draymond was out 2 games, and Looney had 7 Ast, 3 TO.
In 4 games since: 12 Ast, 4 TO

Turnovers are also a product of offensive fouls -- either charging or setting illegal screen.
There are several PF among the 'careless' leaders, none on the other side.

Paul George 'should have had' about 20% more TO than Kawhi last year -- in 11% more minutes -- but he had twice as many.

APBRmetrics

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Player turnovers vs 'expected' TO

Re: Player turnovers vs 'expected' TO

Re: Player turnovers vs 'expected' TO