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Abrupt Conference Disparity

http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=10078

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Abrupt Conference Disparity

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:42 pm
by Mike G
The Eastern Conference improved their record vs the West for 4 straight seasons -- last year having their best Win% of the current century -- and now this year plummeting .092 to their worst mark in 9 years.
This is the largest single-season change in East/West W% since 1989/90

Code: Select all

year   West   East    E+
2024   .568   .432  -.092
2023   .476   .524   .022
2022   .498   .502   .037
2021   .535   .465   .011
2020   .546   .454   .014
2019   .560   .440  -.033
2018   .527   .473   .020
2017   .547   .453  -.031
2016   .516   .484   .068
2015   .584   .416   .047
2014   .631   .369  -.049
2013   .582   .418  -.004
2012   .578   .422   .002
2011   .580   .420  -.033
2010   .547   .453  -.060
2009   .487   .513   .086
2008   .573   .427  -.002
2007   .571   .429   .011
2006   .560   .440   .009
2005   .569   .431   .064
2004   .633   .367  -.038
2003   .595   .405  -.043
2002   .552   .448   .065
2001   .617   .383  -.077
2000   .540   .460  -.088
1999   .452   .548  -.031
1998   .421   .579   .003
1997   .424   .576   .066
1996   .490   .510   .076
1995   .566   .434  -.033
1994   .533   .467  -.058
1993   .475   .525   .028
1992   .503   .497   .030
1991   .533   .467   .011
1990   .544   .456  -.140
1989   .404   .596   .047

Re: Abrupt Conference Disparity

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:11 pm
by J.E.
Harden, Kyrie, FVV & Beal all moved West

Then you have some Western teams drafting or developing well, like OKC, while some Eastern teams are busy waiving recent former first rounders

Re: Abrupt Conference Disparity

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:59 pm
by Crow
Thanks for documenting the trend. I was favoring west based on past and current feel without knowing exactly where the interconference record stood at the moment. I think I checked earlier in season and just thought the trend was continuing without caring much about precise level.

Re: Abrupt Conference Disparity

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2024 11:51 pm
by Mike G
About 30 players moved east to west, last year to this year, and similar number the other way. Not much difference in their net performances:

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moved    min.   e484   PER   WS/48   BPM
W to E  19278   .75   13.5   .087   -1.1
E to W  18342   .76   13.1   .092   -0.8
Numbers as of a week ago.
West to East: Lillard, Schroder, Beasley, Tyus Jones, Poole, DiVincenzo, Bruce Brown have played 1000 minutes.
East to West: VanVleet, Harden, Grayson Allen, J Collins, D Jones, G Williams, Brogdon, Beal, Osman...

A more likely source of "western improvement" might be the rookie crop. This thread claims West rookies lead East 46-17 in projected wins added.
https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=10044

Another phenomenon is improved health by a lot of major players, and the advantage is again in the West.
https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic. ... 160#p41160
Showing current minutes and extrapolated to 82 team games; avg minutes over previous 3 and 5 years.
x/yz is '24? divided by avg of other two -- prev3 get more weight than 4-5 years ago.

Code: Select all

x/yz    player    tm    min   '24?     pr3    pr5
2.15   Thompson  GSW   1060   2414    1073   1174
2.02   Zion      NOP    907   2010     994   
1.93   M Porter  Den   1182   2551    1325   
1.89   Kawhi     LAC   1103   2512    1174   1482
1.82   J Jackson Mem   1138   2592    1390   1462

1.76   A Davis   LAL   1262   2797    1490   1690
1.73   Nurkic    Phx    974   2159    1283   1215
1.57   Durant    Phx   1110   2460    1625   1516
1.56   George    LAC   1173   2672    1612   1819
1.50   Towns     Min   1111   2603    1707   1771

x/yz    player    tm    min   '24?     pr3    pr5
1.38   M Turner  Ind    969   2207    1505   1692
1.37   LeBron    LAL   1175   2604    1847   1959
1.36   Ingram    NOP   1137   2520    1833   1873
1.34   Giannis   Mil   1268   2810    2080   2103
1.34   Curry     GSW   1135   2585    2101   1755
1.33   Lillard   Mil   1205   2671    1854   2175
The top 10 and all but 3 of these are in the West!
Translated to eWins added beyond last season:

Code: Select all

eW+    West             eW+     East
6.5   Karl-A Towns      4.4   Cade Cunningham
5.0   Anthony Davis     4.0   Giannis
4.6   Zion Williamson   3.2   Tyrese Maxey
3.5   Kevin Durant      3.2   Goga Bitadze
3.2   Brandon Ingram    2.8   Duncan Robinson
3.1   Nikola Jokić      2.7   Coby White
3.0   LeBron James      2.4   Khris Middleton
2.9   Kawhi Leonard     2.1   Day'Ron Sharpe
2.9   Collin Sexton     2.0   Andre Drummond
2.6   Jusuf Nurkić      1.8   Damian Lillard
2.5   Paul George       1.8   Obi Toppin
2.4   Desmond Bane      1.8   Payton Pritchard
2.3   Dario Šarić       1.8   Cam Thomas
2.2   Michael Porter   34.0   total East   
2.1   Devin Vassell         
2.1   Shai         
2.0   Jaren Jackson         
1.8   Stephen Curry         
54.7  total West
A few are added to the previous list based on actual improvement, as well as more minutes.
These aren't 'total' totals but just those projecting to have at least 1.8 eWins more than last year; as of a couple weeks ago.
All times are UTC
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